Sunday, May31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dayton, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday May 31, 2020 2:59 PM CDT (19:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:53PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Expires:202006010415;;041728 Fzus54 Khgx 311509 Cwfhgx Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 1009 Am Cdt Sun May 31 2020 Upper Texas Coastal Waters From High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz330-335-010415- Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 1009 Am Cdt Sun May 31 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms late.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming smooth to slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1009 Am Cdt Sun May 31 2020
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. High pressure over the great lakes and a weak coastal trough will produce northeast to east winds through Monday. The high will move off to the east on Tuesday and surface winds will veer to the southeast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dayton, TX
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location: 30.11, -95     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 311717 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1217 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

AVIATION. Fcst soundings show convective temperatures between 82-85 degrees today and this threshold will be met shortly so would expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of the rain could be briefly heavy as PW values are near 2.00 inches. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR for the most part with a brief dip to MVFR in heavier showers. Upper level ridging will build into the area from the east on Monday so would expect the higher rain chances to be over the western half of SE TX. That said, convective temps on Monday will again be in the lower 80's so will keep VCSH/VCTS in area TAFs. Cigs are expected to remain VFR. 43

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 446 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020/ .

SHORT TERM [Through Monday] .

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a large upper-level low spinning across northern Mexico ushering in a moist southerly flow into SE Texas. A short wave moving around this upper level disturbance will help to trigger scattered strong thunderstorms across the southwestern portion of the CWA through the day today. Jackson, Matagorda, and Wharton counties high the highest chance of experiencing stronger thunderstorms from around noon through sunset as that disturbance moves through the area. PWATs increasing to near 2 inches will mean that the thunderstorms that do form will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. The high pressure that has been sitting over northern Texas the past few days has retreated northwards. This will allow for higher PWATs to make their way northward, so isolated showers are possible this afternoon up through Harris County. A lull in the shower activity is expected after sunset this evening, but return on Monday thanks to daytime heating and continuing high PWATs. Although coverage and intensity of Monday's storms will be less than today due to less favorable upper level support.

High temperatures today and Monday will be in the mid to upper 80s north of I-10 and in the low 80s south of I-10 due to increased cloud cover. Low temperature tonight will be in the low 70s across most of the area, and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Monday night through Sunday] .

Upper ridging will dominant early June's weather pattern by providing the subsidence needed in keeping this period's areal precipitation chances low and temperatures trending above normal.

While rain chances will be low, most everyone will pick up measurable rain from Tuesday through Thursday. The mid to upper level ridge enveloping the Southern Plains will display a subtle weakness over Eastern Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico. 85H to 5H ridging will focus over the southeastern U.S. with a longwave ridge axis over the Rocky Mountains. This places Texas within the relatively weaker height channel. Traditionally, within this set up, any disturbed weather forming over the Bay of Campeche gets caught up within this channel and brought northward towards the Upper Texas coastline . or gets caught within the east to southeast 7H steering flow between two aforementioned mid to upper ridges. In essence, this height weakness channel also becomes a moisture channel as higher moist air masses over the warmer southwestern Gulf are advected northward into the region.

The surface pressure gradient with high pressure generally stationed over Georgia and Florida in relation to lowering pressures (due to daily heating) over the Rocky lees and western Texas will maintain an onshore orientation through the week. This will keep pwats high, in the 1 6 to near 2 inch range. these numbers fall into the 75 percentile by early June standards. Convective temperatures in the lower 90s will likely be achieved so, if lift is either provided along the local breezes or from a landfalling weak Gulf disturbance, expect at least low end PoPs to be in place for (at least) the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area through a good part of the week.

Heat will also be a topic this coming week. Ambient temperatures not falling much overnight (only the low to mid 70s) will quickly warm into the early afternoon lower 90s within a more humid air mass with little to no mixing per weak lower level southerlies will produce "feels like" mid to late week temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Thus, be aware and take the proper precautions to avoid heat exhaustion if outside exercising or working between the hours of Noon to 4 PM.

The global deterministic models are still developing a closed off circulation from the current broad disturbance over southern Mexico and the northern countries of Central America. The GFS solution is to bring a weak tropical system (near 1000 mb low) to Galveston Bay next Tuesday while the ECMWF is a faster solution of taking its weak low of around 1000 mb up the Sabine Pass late Sunday. The NHC has placed a 30% chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. Obviously, due to the disagreement amongst models, confidence is very low but it will still be wise to pay attention to what becomes of this potential system. Tomorrow is the official start of the 2020 Hurricane Season so now is a good time to review your hurricane plan! 31

MARINE .

Occasional early day showers and an isolated thunderstorm can be expected over the maritime the next several days. Funnels and/or waterspouts are likely within the strongest cells. High pressure positioned over the southeastern U.S./Florida, along with a weak surface boundary paralleling the upper Texas coastline, will maintain a general (north)east wind today. Inland heating will cause a slight nearshore veering of winds to the southeast later in the afternoon. Nearshore significant wave heights will remain in the average near 2 foot range . 3 to near 4 feet over the far offshore waters. The early week pressure gradient will favor a typical onshore wind orientation so southeasterly winds will become the dominant wind by Tuesday. The approach of a southern Gulf low into the northern Gulf early next week will back strengthened winds to the east-northeast and increase precipitation chances. 31

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. College Station (CLL) 86 70 85 72 91 / 20 20 30 20 20 Houston (IAH) 87 72 87 73 90 / 40 40 20 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 83 77 84 78 86 / 60 30 30 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . NONE. GM . NONE.

Discussion . 43 Aviation/Marine . 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 30 mi60 min E 8.9 G 12 82°F 82°F1018.4 hPa (-0.6)
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 30 mi60 min E 4.1 G 6 82°F 82°F1018 hPa (-0.3)
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 44 mi60 min E 11 G 12 80°F 81°F1018 hPa (-0.3)
HIST2 48 mi60 min E 8.9 G 12 81°F 82°F1017.9 hPa (-0.6)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 49 mi60 min ESE 13 G 15 79°F1018.3 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, TX17 mi85 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F67°F60%1019.6 hPa
Houston Intercontinental Airport, TX21 mi67 minENE 710.00 miOvercast84°F69°F61%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K6R3

Wind History from 6R3 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoN4N5N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4CalmN3Calm
2 days agoSE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N9N5N6NE3N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:28 AM CDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:29 AM CDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM CDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:08 PM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.80.80.80.80.70.70.60.60.60.70.70.911.11.11.110.90.80.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas
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Point Barrow
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:49 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:12 AM CDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:16 AM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:37 PM CDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.80.80.80.80.70.50.40.30.30.40.50.60.70.911.11.110.80.60.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.