Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for The Woodlands, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

It's Pi Day (Pi Day, gotta get down on Pi Day...I'm so sorry).
So, in classic Texas fashion, we're going to have slices of multiple seasons throughout the forecast period:

Today-Sunday Afternoon: Slice of Spring Sunday Evening/Night-Tuesday Night: Slice of Winter Wednesday through the work week: Slice of Spring Approaching next weekend: Adding a little garnish of Summer

Personally, I opted for peach cobbler but ehh...beggars can't be choosers I guess. Southwesterly winds aloft continue to advect in warmer temperatures aloft with 850mb temperatures firmly in the 90th percentile. As a result, high temperatures this afternoon will top out in upper 70s to low 80s. That warming trend continues into Sunday as 850mb temperatures approach the 97-99th percentiles leading to high temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 80s. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see a few spots in the Brazos Valley flirt with the 90°F mark.

Before that though, winds will gradually increase overnight as a SW- NE oriented LLJ strengthens (stretches from TX to the Upper Midwest). This is due to the pressure gradient tightening as surface low pressure begins to develop in the Central Plains in response to an upper level trough sweeping through the central CONUS. 35-45 kt winds aloft persist into the afternoon, and some of those stronger winds will mix down to the surface. As a result, a Wind Advisory goes into effect starting at 10 AM Sunday morning and remains in effect through Monday afternoon (more on that in a bit). As the surface low drifts eastward on Sunday, it will drag a cold front through Southeast TX in the late afternoon/evening hours. There will be a thin band line of showers/storms along the frontal boundary as it pushes through.

Moisture availability is still in question, but convergence along the front does gradually increase moisture along the frontal boundary as it makes its way towards the coast. So, like all of the 12Z CAM guidance reflects, this line of showers/storms will gradually expand westward as it moves southward through our area.
There is potential for a few storms along this line to become strong to severe. Moisture availability is the only question mark. We have the instability + lapse rates, we have the shear, and we have quite the lifting mechanism right along the front. If a storm manages to become strong to severe, strong winds and hail would be the primary hazards...definitely moreso the strong winds. As a result, SPC has outlined portions of the Piney Woods in a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather. Everywhere else in Southeast TX is outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5).

This will be a very progressive front, so flooding is not a concern at all. In fact, those that do get rain will be lucky to get more than a tenth of an inch. We did the math yesterday and discovered that the front will be traveling 35-40 mph. That puts the front in Crockett around 5 PM and off the coast by 9 PM (give or take an hour).

There are multiple hazards to discuss in the wake of the front, so let's start with the inland hazards. Sunday night into Monday morning, there will be a strong LLJ overhead in the 50-60 kt range.
Some of these winds will mix down to the surface leading to sustained northerly winds in the 20-25 mph range with gusts peaking above 40 mph. The Wind Advisory extends into Monday afternoon for this reason. The strongest wind gusts will occur overnight into Monday morning. With how gusty these winds are expected to be, localized power outages (especially near the coast) will be possible. These gusty winds will overlap with very dry air (RH values in the upper teens to low 20s), which will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Monday. [See Fire Weather discussion below for more details]

Additionally, these strong winds will create hazardous marine conditions both ahead of and in the wake of the front ranging from increased risk of rip currents on Sunday to gale force winds, elevated seas, and abnormally low water levels in the bays during low tide cycles late Sunday into Monday. [See Marine discussion down below for more details]

Temperatures behind the front will be some of the coolest weather we've seen since early February! High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the 50s...the last time that this happened was on February 1st (over 40 days ago). Sunday night and Monday night will feature low temperatures in the 30s/40s with the potential for a light freeze Monday night in portions of the Piney Woods. A rather robust upper level high begins to build into the southwestern CONUS around midweek (see CPC's temperature outlook to see all of the red). We'll go on a warming trend next week as well with temperatures approaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week.
For absolutely no reason at all, I'm going to mention that the average first 90°F day for the City of Houston is May 6th, but we did get a 90°F day in mid March last year! Again...I mentioned that for no reason at all...maybe!

Batiste

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR through this evening, then expect MVFR cigs developing tonight into early Sun morning over much of SE Texas. S-SE winds will remain rather elevated, roughly around 10 knots tonight. On Sun, winds will become S-SW and increase to 12-18 knots with gusts of around 22-28 knots. A very progressive cold front will move through SE Texas Sun late afternoon to evening and will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms, some possibly becoming strong to severe. Main hazards with these storms will be strong damaging winds and hail.

In the wake of the FROPA, expect strong N winds at 20-25 knots with gusts of 28-35 knots Sun night into Mon morning along with llvl wind shear of around 50 knots (WS020/35050KT). Winds will begin to relax Mon afternoon and relax to around 5 knots Mon night.

Cotto

MARINE
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Light southeasterly winds will prevail through this evening. Winds and seas begin to increase overnight into Sunday in advance of an approaching cold front. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory will go into effect on Sunday morning. These increasing winds also increases the potential for strong rip currents on Sunday, so be advised if you have plans to head to the beach.

A cold front will push offshore Sunday evening with a thin band of showers/storms along the boundary. Expect strong northerly winds (30- 35 kt with 40-45 kt gusts) and elevated seas (10-15 ft) in the wake of this front through Monday. A Gale Watch has been issued from Sunday evening into Monday afternoon.

Those heading to the beaches or out on the waters for Spring Break should be advised of this period of hazardous marine conditions late Sunday into Monday. Typically inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with offshore winds. Additionally, PETSS guidance is indicating the potential for abnormally low water levels during times of low tide on Monday. Winds and seas gradually subside going into Monday night with onshore flow returning by Tuesday and prevailing through the end of the work week.

Batiste

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A surge of very dry air will filter into Southeast TX in the wake of a cold front that pushes through late Sunday. This will lead to a period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Monday as very dry air (minimum RH values in the upper teens to low 20s) and gusty northerly winds (gusts up to 40-45 mph) prevail into the afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most of Southeast TX on Monday. Drier air sticks around on Tuesday, but winds will be lighter and southeasterly. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as onshore winds prevail and low level moisture recovers.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 65 88 40 54 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 66 86 45 56 / 0 10 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 68 76 50 58 / 0 10 50 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163- 164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ330- 335-350-355-370-375.

Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.