The Woodlands, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for The Woodlands, TX


October 3, 2023 2:34 PM CDT (19:34 UTC)
Sunrise 7:15AM   Sunset 7:06PM   Moonrise  9:07PM   Moonset 10:51AM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 225 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
This afternoon..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Showers likely.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 225 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
showers and Thunderstorms can be expected for the next several days over the waters. Coverage should become more widespread in the late week due to a cold front that is expected to move off the coast Thursday night.
ahead of the front, a long fetch of moderate east to southeast winds will provide somewhat elevated seas and above normal tide levels. Behind the front, moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds can be expected. For much of the week, caution flags are likely and advisories are possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Woodlands, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 031740 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

With the mid/upper ridge weakening over the region, the trajectory of the deeper moisture (that has been focused on the Middle coast)
will be shifting north to cover much of SE TX today (and tomorrow).
However, while these rains are much needed, there is a chance that some locations could see locally heavy rains...with totals upwards of 3 to 5 inches possible in a short amount of time. Forecasted PW values from 2.1" to 2.3" along with indications of training storms do support the Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for Excessive Rain for areas along and south of I-10...and Slight Risk (2 of 4) for a more con- centrated area at the coast (Matagorda and Brazoria counties) from WPC. While these are the locations currently pinged on by the near term models, there could be some slight shifts with where the best rains could occur. So, everyone in the southern half of the CWA is encouraged to stay weather aware today.

These elevated rain chances are expected to persist into Weds with much of the CWA likely getting some beneficial rains. Deep tropical moisture (PWs~ 2.1") will be continuing to stream in from the Gulf, but not seeing much by way of a focus for heavy rain at this time.

On the plus side, however, these increased rain chances and clouds will help to lower daytime temperatures for today and perhaps even moreso for tomorrow
Highs today will be in lower to mid 90s
and the upper 80s near the coast. Highs for tomorrow will be mostly in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The forecast gets complicated right off the bat for the long term portion of the period. Though there's pretty strong consensus that when Thursday morning opens that the entirety of the area will be in a pre-frontal environment...precise timing for how that front crosses Southeast Texas becomes a bit more of an open question.
At the speedy end, we've got the Canadian bringing the front in pre-dawn hours and through the area by early afternoon. As much as I admire our northern neighbors' excitement to bring a vigorous front through, no doubt fueled by a decent cold pool...I'm going to discount that. While the models have been getting more aggressive with the cooler air and it is now October...I'll believe it when I see it.

Instead, we'll go with something closer to a broad consensus of the guidance, bringing the front into our northern areas around mid-day. It should make its way towards the coast through the afternoon and early evening, slowing down as it does so. This initial front probably stalls out somewhere near the coastline, and we have to wait for a reinforcing front to push through on Friday to really open us some stronger, northeasterly offshore winds wrapping around a surface high dropping into the Great Plains.

What are the main implications of this? Well, I know we all want to talk about temps with our first real, honest-to-goodness cold front of the fall. And we'll get to that, but first...yeah, we're gonna go from incessantly talking about drought all summer to having to discuss flooding potential. Ahead of this front, we can expect solid pooling of moisture. Precipitable water values are around/above the 90th percentile in both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble means. Leading up to the front, the ensembles are also showing low percentile U winds and high percentile V winds. For y'all normal people who don't geek out about vector wind climatology, that's a solid sign that we are getting abnormally strong onshore flow, bolstering the confidence in getting those high PWAT values. Toss in a boundary that will provide a focus for low level convergence and may struggle to clear the coast, and suddenly we're on the lookout for high rain rate storms and maybe some training of heavy rainfall.

Now, before we get too carried away here, high PWAT does not necessarily mean heavy rain; it does mean a more favorable background environment for it. We still need to put everything else together to support the development of storms to make that heavy rain. One thing that stands out to me - especially in the Euro, but also to some extent in the GFS - is how the upper jet structure really falls apart as the front makes its way into the area. It doesn't really recover until a northern stream trough rotates through; but by this time, the reinforcing front is pushing through and moisture is being scoured out rapidly.

Ultimately, the large majority of the area gets painted with a marginal risk for excessive rain from WPC in their new Day 3 outlook, which is pretty reasonable. There's definitely reason for some concern for heavy rain, which may be enhanced depending on how short term rainfall pans out. But also, there are reasons to believe that some of the higher end potential is not realized.

Okay, with that out of the way, let's talk temps! Because so much depends on precise timing of that front, there's big bust potential for Thursday's highs. But, the NBM seems to have a pretty good handle on it, with highs in the lower 80s north of the Houston metro, and right around 90 degrees on the coastal plain.
This might be a bit on the cool side - things can get a bit torchy if the front arrives late enough to let us get in most of a day of heating. But, it probably makes a good hedge against the trend towards a slightly faster frontal passage.

After that...might we be looking at our first chance to see high temperatures below 80 degrees since...I don't even want to think about how long? Well, the NBM sure seems to go there this weekend once the reinforcing front is through. This notable cooling holds in the overnight as well as dewpoints crash. Way up north in parts of Houston and Madison counties, I've got lows slipping below 50 degrees Sunday and Monday morning. Now, that's a bit of cherry picking, but forecast lows are in the mid-60s even right on the Gulf shores with most of the forecast area falling into the 50s, so everyone should get a nice taste of fall this weekend.

This is still an "early" fall front, however, so things do look to turn around fairly quickly once onshore flow returns early next week. Increasing dewpoints means low temps back into the 60s for most and even back into the lower 70s on the Gulf. In the afternoons, we can look to see temps push back over 80 degrees for many as early as Monday, and likely area-wide by Tuesday.|

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact all terminals through this evening, which at times may produce MVFR to IFR conditions and brief periods of gusty winds. Greater chances of rainfall remain focused on terminals along and south of the I-10 corridor for the remainder of today. Overnight, a brief lull in activity is expected before showers redevelop offshore during the early morning hours. Another round of thunderstorms is expected to impact all terminals tomorrow afternoon, once again bringing periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Outside of any stronger wind gusts associated with thunderstorms, prevailing winds should remain out of the southeast at around 10 knots.

Cady

MARINE
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

There will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters. Expect coverage to become more widespread in the latter part of the week due to an approaching cold front. This front is expected to move off the coast Thursday night. Before the front arrives, a long fetch of moderate east to southeast winds will generate somewhat elevated seas and above normal tide levels.
Behind the front, moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds can be expected. For much of the week, caution flags are likely and advisories are possible. At the coast, strong rip currents can be expected with the long fetch, pre-frontal winds. Additionally, the tidal levels are currently expected to be high enough to create some minor flooding in the lowest-lying areas along the Gulf coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 96 75 89 73 / 40 30 70 50 Houston (IAH) 93 76 89 75 / 60 40 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 88 80 87 80 / 70 40 50 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-226-227- 236>238-313-336>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 30 mi46 min ESE 2.9G5.1 78°F 29.90
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 41 mi46 min 29.91

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Wind History for Manchester, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDWH DAVID WAYNE HOOKS MEMORIAL,TX 4 sm19 minENE 071/2 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 79°F77°F94%29.93
KIAH GEORGE BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL/HOUSTON,TX 13 sm22 minENE 092 smOvercast Hvy Rain Mist 77°F75°F94%29.93
KCXO CONROENORTH HOUSTON RGNL,TX 17 sm41 minENE 092 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 75°F75°F100%29.96

Wind History from DWH
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
   
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Lynchburg Landing
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Tue -- 02:53 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:53 PM CDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:06 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet
12
am
1.1
1
am
1.3
2
am
1.4
3
am
1.4
4
am
1.4
5
am
1.3
6
am
1.2
7
am
1.2
8
am
1.1
9
am
1.1
10
am
1.1
11
am
1.1
12
pm
1
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
0.7
3
pm
0.4
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0
6
pm
-0.1
7
pm
-0.1
8
pm
-0
9
pm
0.1
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.6



Tide / Current for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
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Tue -- 03:33 AM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM CDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:35 AM CDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:06 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet
12
am
0.6
1
am
0.8
2
am
0.9
3
am
1
4
am
1
5
am
1
6
am
0.9
7
am
0.9
8
am
0.9
9
am
0.9
10
am
0.9
11
am
0.9
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
0.7
3
pm
0.6
4
pm
0.4
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
0
7
pm
-0.1
8
pm
-0.1
9
pm
-0.1
10
pm
-0
11
pm
0.1




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Houston/Galveston, TX,



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