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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 907 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023 /807 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023/
Overnight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of rain.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 907 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis..
areas of dense fog are expected across apalachee bay through mid morning on Monday with visibilities around 1 nautical mile or less. Otherwise, a cold front will cross the region this evening and overnight switching winds to the northwest. Winds may briefly approach exercise caution levels on Monday. A second cold front will cross the waters Tuesday night increasing winds to near advisory levels. Winds will then shift to the east and diminish from Thursday through Friday as high pressure builds north of the region.

FXUS62 KTAE 040120 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 820 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

New UPDATE, HYDROLOGY

UPDATE
Issued at 819 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Patchy fog has developed early across the eastern half of the area this evening with residual low level moisture. The only change to the forecast was to start patchy fog earlier in the evening for the eastern half of the area.

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A cold front moving slowly eastward across the area today will finally clear the region tonight. Cloud cover may linger overnight into Monday in the wake of the front, and a few spots of very light rain and drizzle may still persist across the southeast Big Bend tonight. Rain rates should remain very light and should not create additional flooding over already saturated areas. Light west to northwest winds are expected in the wake of the front, with slightly cooler and drier conditions expected. Lows tonight are forecast in the upper 40s to low 50s across Southeast Alabama and far Southwest GA while the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, and South-Central GA remain in the mid 50s to low 60s. Highs Monday are forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

In the wake of the front, conditions will dry out and cool down. No rain is expected through this period. Highs will be in the 60s on Tuesday with lows in the 40s Monday and Tuesday nights.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A deepening, positively-tilted trough will help drive another cold front through the region. This frontal passage will be dry, but usher in a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday night looks to be the chilliest. Inland areas will potentially get some frost with lows in the lower to mid 30s. A gradual warning trend will then commence with highs back in the 70s everywhere by Saturday. Unfortunately, it looks like the timing for the next weather-maker will be centered on the weekend. An upper-level trough will sweep across the Southeast during this time with a frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday. Timing for this system among the various global models is better than previously. PoPs Saturday will range from 40 in Walton County to 10 over South Central GA. For Saturday night and Sunday, PoPs will range from 50-60% west to 20- 30% east. It too early to speculate on severe weather chances, but the system does look to be progressive enough to avoid significant flooding issues, especially after 5 days of antecedent dry weather.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

We have a mix of MVFR/VFR cigs at the start of the TAF period but we can expect improving conditions through the night. The VLD terminal will have IFR cigs develop this evening and MVFR/IFR vsbys are likely to develop around midnight through daybreak. VFR conditions are expected during the day Monday, although cloudy skies will remain. It will be a little breezy with westerly winds during the afternoon, yet gusts are expected to remain below 20 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A cold front will cross the region this evening and overnight switching winds to the northwest. Winds may briefly approach exercise caution levels on Monday. A second cold front will cross the waters Tuesday night increasing winds to near advisory levels.
Winds will then shift to the east and diminish from Thursday through Friday as high pressure builds north of the region.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Dry conditions are on tap after heavy rainfall for much of the area over the weekend. While cooler and drier air is expected to move in tonight and Monday in the wake of today's front, a much stronger front will push through Tuesday into Tuesday night and bring in even colder air. Despite this, there are no fire weather concerns expected outside of the higher dispersions.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 819 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Rainfall totals ranged from 3-6 inches across a large swath of the southern 2/3 of the forecast area with localized areas from Panama City east across Wakulla and southern Jefferson counties getting 10- 12 inches. Because precursor conditions were so dry with some areas still in drought, and the majority of the rain falling over the lower reaches of main stem rivers, minimal river flooding was observed or forecast. The exceptions are the Sopchoppy and Aucilla Rivers. Moderate flooding has occurred at Sopchoppy with minor flooding expected along the Aucilla River at Lamont. The St Marks River at Newport is now expected to remain just below the minor flood stage. Looking ahead, the frontal system next weekend looks to be progressive, limiting the flood potential.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 58 73 46 64 / 20 0 0 0 Panama City 58 71 47 64 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 51 68 41 61 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 51 70 41 61 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 57 71 44 63 / 30 0 0 0 Cross City 64 75 49 66 / 30 10 0 0 Apalachicola 60 70 50 63 / 20 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Parker
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Sun -- 01:53 AM CST     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:42 PM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:31 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Lynn Haven
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Sun -- 01:52 AM CST     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:40 PM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:31 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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