Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parker, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 851 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Latest guidance indicates lower RH this afternoon, mainly in Southeast AL and in Southwest GA from the Flint River Valley northwestward, ranging from 25 to 30%. As a result, elevated fire danger can be expected in these areas again this aftn.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Surface high pressure will slide eastward with surface winds becoming easterly. The cool and dry airmass will start to modify today with increasing dewpoints and highs ranging from the lower 60s across the northern areas to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend. Overnight lows tonight will be milder compared to the last couple of nights with mid 40s to low 50s expected.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Rain chances continue to look high for early next week as a fairly strong upper level trough affects the area and interacts with a surface frontal boundary draped across the region. The 00z GFS develops an 850 mb jet of 40-50 knots across the area on Monday night. There should be plenty of forcing for widespread rain with the heaviest amounts across the western half of the area. Given the dynamics, a few thunderstorms may also occur on Monday night into Tuesday morning as weak instability moves inland. The severe weather threat will likely depend on how much instability can recover northward as shear will likely be high.

This system will exit later on Tuesday with a dry day expected on Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, another system could approach with another chance of rain by the end of the week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Cloud-level moisture will advect in overnight in association with a southeast low-level jet. There is uncertainty with respect to the depth and extent of the moisture across the terminals which translates into a lower confidence forecast, including the timing.
Overall, the strongest signal for low clouds is at ABY and VLD, where we're most aggressive with lowering cigs to MVFR after 06Z with IFR possible. Included MVFR cigs at TLH starting ~05Z and a TEMPO for MVFR cigs around sunrise at ECP. At DHN, cannot rule out restrictions, but maintained VFR given the low probability.
Expect a return to VFR around 15Z although cannot rule out brief MVFR cigs given cloud bases in the 3-4k ft range. Aforementioned low-level jet atop decoupling boundary layer is expected to lead to Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) at ABY after ~06Z but not at VLD attm as the jet begins to pull away as surface winds subside.

MARINE
Issued at 851 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Winds will gradually shift to an easterly direction today and diminish below 20 knots by early this afternoon. Another surge of easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots tonight admonishes small craft operators to exercise caution. A strong cold front will push through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring a chance of rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday with winds increasing to around 20 knots on Monday night into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Relative humidity values will be higher today compared to the last couple of days as low level moisture returns to the region. A wetting rain is expected on Monday night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area mainly on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will give the region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we've seen in some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. There is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain across southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle on Monday night into Tuesday.
This would be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the region.

In the meantime, extreme to exceptional drought continues. The most recent local drought information can be found by visiting www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 66 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 Panama City 66 54 73 56 / 0 10 20 20 Dothan 63 47 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 Albany 62 45 71 49 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 66 48 74 53 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 72 51 78 55 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 65 57 70 60 / 0 10 20 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.