Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pearlington, MS

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Tuesday will continue to see warm and humid conditions, but an approaching northern stream trough axis will allow for some weakening of the strong mid-level capping inversion across the far northern portions of the forecast area by the late afternoon hours and evening hours. A very isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop during this time period across parts of southwest Mississippi. As the trough axis further deepens, the strong ridging over the area will shift to the east by late Tuesday night, and this will allow for more favorable thermodynamic support of convective activity. These more unstable conditions will persist into Wednesday morning as a cold front quickly slides through the area. This front will serve as the focusing mechanism for convective activity, and expect to see a thin broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving across the forecast area during the morning hours. Fortunately, limited shear and CAPE of only around 1000 J/KG will keep any convection on the weaker side.
Temperatures will remain warmer than average on Wednesday, but should be a few degrees cooler in the mid to upper 80s instead of the lower 90s due to the passage of the front by the afternoon hours.

Deep layer northwest flow will then take hold Wednesday night and remain in place through Friday. This northwest flow regime in the mid and upper levels will usher in a cooler and much drier airmass, and this will allow temperatures to cool back to more average levels for this time of year in the low to mid 80s. The lower dewpoints will also allow for decent radiational cooling to take hold each night with overnight lows dipping into the upper 50s and 60s. Skies will be mostly clear by Friday as this drier air settles in. Overall, a very pleasant way to end the workweek.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Conditions across the area are VFR with either clear skies or, at worst, a few high clouds. As the evening progresses a temperature inversion will bring a stratus ceiling that will decrease and by 06Z conditions will progress to MVFR. Through the night the stratus deck will build down to IFR levels at BTR/MCB/HDC. At MCB the build down will work into light fog with visibilities dropping to 3SM from 11 to 13Z. Across the area, by 15 to 16Z rising temperatures will drive the breakup and lifting of the stratus deck to VFR conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A very persistent onshore flow regime with winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue through Tuesday as a broad surface high pressure system remains parked over the eastern Gulf. Wednesday will see a shift in the pattern as a cold front moves through the coastal waters. This front will switch winds to an offshore flow regime of 10 to 15 knots from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.
Some thunderstorm activity may also accompany the front on Wednesday, and these storms could produce some locally higher winds and waves as they pass through. Otherwise, no significant impacts to maritime operations are anticipated through late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 91 71 91 / 10 10 0 0 BTR 75 91 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 74 89 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 75 88 76 88 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 75 85 75 85 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 73 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.