Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Park Estates, MS

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A mostly zonal flow transitioning into a more active southwesterly flow is expected through the second half of the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. This will continue to promote generally an above average temperature pattern with a 593dam H5 ridge remaining locked over the Gulf. A broader scale trough will move eastward through the plains and eventually into the Cornbelt southward to the Ozarks. This will send a front and parent upper level shortwave through our region midweek. Globals are in relatively good agreement in terms of timing and strength of the system and this will be our next chance of rainfall across the region with the best QPF signal residing along and north of the I10/12 corridor. Behind the front, CAA develops and temperatures drop from the 80s/90s respectively to the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s across the cooler interior locations to round out the long term period. (Frye)

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

The lower ceilings seen earlier this morning have lifted and mixed out into a scattered to broken deck ranging between 2000 and 3500 feet. These conditions will persist through the evening hours.
However, after 06z, another round of low stratus will redevelop as an inversion strengthens with overnight cooling. This stratus will build down to between 800 and 1500 feet closer to daybreak around 10z to 14z, and this will result in periods of IFR restrictions at most of the terminals. Although some patchy light fog may also develop at MCB, overall fog probabilities are too low to include fog in the forecast at MCB or any other terminal in that 10z to 14z time period. After 14z, increased thermal mixing will once lead to improved conditions as the stratus deck lifts and breaks apart. PG

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

CIG reductions will improve to VFR here over the next couple of hours. During the day winds will be a bit gusty, especially BTR where southerly gusts of 20-25kt will be possible through the day. Otherwise, more low stratus is forecast to develop later this evening and especially overnight tonight with MVFR conditions again possible later in the cycle. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Cautionary headlines are ongoing for the western waters south of Terrebonne Bay. Winds going into the weekend will slightly weaken as pressure gradient relaxes just a skosh. That said, moderate southerly flow will continue through the weekend and into early next week with moderate seas also continuing. A cold front will approach the region by midweek, which should transition winds to a more northwesterly direction. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 92 70 91 / 0 10 10 0 BTR 75 92 73 91 / 0 10 0 0 ASD 74 91 73 89 / 0 10 0 0 MSY 75 90 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 75 86 75 85 / 0 10 0 0 PQL 73 86 72 85 / 0 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.