Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Upper Grand Lagoon, FL

SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Dry northwesterly flow aloft will keep a dry airmass in place while at the surface west and seabreeze-induced southerly flow prevail. With the dry airmass in place, rain chances are near zero through the beginning of the weekend and the hot temperatures from Friday afternoon will continue into Saturday with highs likely in the mid 90s and heat indices around 100 in some of the warmer locations. A stray shower can't be ruled out given the instability hot temperatures would provide, but if this occurs it would likely be across the Panhandle and into southeast Alabama where more favorable upper level ascent could move in ahead of a weak 500mb shortwave.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Hot temperatures likely continue into Sunday and Memorial Day as the upper level ridge remains in control. Low-level moisture, aided by daily intrusions of the seabreeze, will slowly climb into early part of next week and this will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. As upper level heights fall into the middle of the upcoming week, and deep- layer moisture improves, expect more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances from Tuesday through much of the upcoming week. With increasing clouds and thunderstorm chances high temperatures will drop back down into the upper 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Post-frontal NNW winds are expected at most sites with southerly near the coast.
Light to calm winds expected overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Winds will be mostly light and variable through much of the period. The main exception will be along nearshore waters out to 20 or 30 nautical miles where developing seabreezes each afternoon will bring onshore flow around 10 knots, gusting to 15 knots, each afternoon. Most shower and storm chances should remain overland but some storm activity could become more common early next week in the morning and early afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Generally dry and warm conditions are expected for the next several days in the wake of yesterday's cold front. High dispersions are expected each day, primarily across areas further inland due to very high mixing heights. While afternoons are forecast to be dry, moisture will very gradually increase over the next several days.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

No significant rainfall is forecast through the next 7 days.
Rainfall chances do increase after the upcoming weekend, but amounts are not likely to cause issues at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 64 95 69 96 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 68 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 64 92 67 95 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 63 94 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 61 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 68 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.