Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 2:58 PM   Moonset 3:24 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1019 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Isolated Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sunday - North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Isolated Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning. Sunday night - North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1019 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots will persist through Saturday evening, but a cold front will gradually shift winds to the north Saturday night into Sunday. By Sunday night, these northerly winds will strengthen to 15 to 25 knots and then linger into Monday. At least exercise caution, possibly small craft advisory, will be needed. By Monday night, high pressure moving over the waters will allow the winds to relax back to 10 to 15 knots and also shift winds to the northeast and eventually southeast. These southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will then remain in place into the middle of next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 200031 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 731 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A fairly broad upper level trough is currently moving east through the Great Lakes. The southern side of this feature is relatively flat at this time which is why the associated cold front is struggling to make southward progression. Model soundings show low dewpoint depressions around 500mb and near the surface. That points to continued high level clouds and possibly patchy fog over SELA and southern MS. So should expect another anomalously warm night.
Saturday will be similar to today as the trough continues east of the Great Lakes with the base of the trough still quite flat without much southward movement. The cold front will be basically crawling south into the CWA Saturday. Post frontal showers with maybe a storm or 2 will drift south into the northern half of the local area.
Highs will be limited by slightly cooler air north of the boundary and clouds to the south of it. So a bit more challenging and higher probability of being too cool or warm for forecast highs in the CWA



LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Models show a shortwave on the backside of the northern trough moving on a much farther south trajectory, passing through the mid to lower Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon. This is what'll be needed to finally drive a cold front completely through the CWA on Sunday morning. Ample moisture in place with lift from the front will be a good setup for increasing showers. Model soundings today compared to previous days show much less instability anywhere through the column. Thus, thinking it'll be fairly tough for much thunder to develop and therefore now only have isolated thunderstorms in the zone forecasts. Overall QPF shouldn't be impactful generally speaking with areal amounts under an inch.
Coverage forecast of 80% could still be too low.

This cold front won't be particularly strong being that a shortwave it driving it, so only looking at a day of below normal temps with moderating conditions quickly returning as well as above normal temps Tuesday onward. Precip forecast next week continues to be on the lower end of confidence as models not doing a great job of resolving weaker troughs that may pass through the midsection of the country. So will just be going with deterministic NBM POPs which with the latest forecast package is on the drier side.



AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Should see mostly VFR CIGs continue until after midnight tonight.
MVFR to IFR CIGs move in after midnight with pockets of light fog possible. Patchy fog approaching 2-3 SM will be possible at terminals, especially MCB and HUM. CIG/VIS will gradually lift after sunrise with most terminals in MVFR to VFR by 1800 UTC.
Scattered showers will be possible later in the morning with VCSH denoting this possibility.

MARINE
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A surface high pressure is centered in the western Atlantic and extending across the Gulf of Mexico. The western periphery of this ridge is being broken down by approaching surface trough to the north of the area. That'll result in a weakening of onshore flow with most of the coastal waters becoming light and variable tonight. Current global model runs indicate that a cold front will move through the coast waters Sunday morning. Cold air advection won't be particularly strong with this boundary and thus likely only looking at about 12 to 18 hours of Exercise Caution to low-end Small Craft conditions.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 78 52 60 / 10 50 70 70 BTR 71 85 60 66 / 10 20 60 60 ASD 68 84 59 68 / 0 20 50 80 MSY 71 84 64 68 / 0 10 50 80 GPT 68 82 60 68 / 0 20 30 80 PQL 67 84 60 70 / 0 20 20 70

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Fri -- 12:30 AM CDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:21 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:24 AM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Long Point
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Fri -- 04:20 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:18 PM CDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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