Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sawgrass, FL

UPDATE
Added coastal Camden county into the Frost Advisory in effect late tonight as light northerly winds back northwesterly as high pressure sprawls southwestward from the Carolina coast into the Suwannee Valley. Otherwise forecast is on track for the Freeze Warning for inland SE GA west of I-95 with lows 28-30 degrees and the Frost Advisory along the coast, inland Nassau county and along I-10 into the Suwannee Valley with lows around 32-34 degrees. Upper 30s expected along I-95 along and west of the St Johns river to near Highway 301 with low 40s for north central FL and the low to mid 40s across the NE FL coast.

The Freeze warning will end at 8AM with rising temperatures after sunrise under mostly sunny skies. Light northwest winds will become westerly Wednesday afternoon as high pressure shifts southwestward into the NE Gulf waters. Skies will become sunny in the midday to afternoon hours with highs into the low 60s over most of SE GA and the mid to upper 60s over NE FL.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1028 millibars)
centered over the coastal Carolina region and extending its axis southwestward across the Deep South
Aloft
broad troughing remains in place across the eastern half of the nation, with a moisture- starved shortwave embedded within this longwave trough currently traversing the southern Appalachians. Surface ridging wedging down the southeastern seaboard and weak coastal troughing situated over our near shore Atlantic waters helped to advect a deck of low stratus clouds southwestward across southeast GA and portions of northeast FL earlier this morning. The seasonably low sun angle has only allowed for a gradual erosion of this stratus deck across inland portions of southeast GA and along the I-10 corridor in northeast FL, with additional marine stratocumulus cloud cover being generated by weak coastal troughing also advecting onshore along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures beneath the stratus deck were still in the 40s across inland southeast GA as of 19Z, with 50s elsewhere, except 60-65 across north central FL, where sunshine has been more plentiful thus far this afternoon. Dewpoints ranged from the low and mid 30s across inland southeast GA to the 40s elsewhere.

High pressure will gradually weaken as it slides southward over our area overnight, setting up radiational cooling at inland locations.
A light freeze is expected across inland southeast GA, with frost extending to coastal portions of southeast GA and along the Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and inland portions of northeast FL. Frost advisories have been issued for these locations, with a freeze warning maintained for all of inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Weakening coastal troughing over our local waters will likely maintain a weak northwesterly breeze along the I-95 corridor, keeping lows in the 40s at coastal locations in northeast FL as well as for most of north central FL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Cooler than normal temperatures continue Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure overhead Wednesday, and a weak cold front moving through the area by Thursday morning. Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s area-wide after a cold and frosty morning, with sunny skies and westerly winds. Overnight, lows will fall into the upper 30s for inland southeast Georgia and 40s elsewhere, not quite cold enough for frost. Thursday will be cooler after the frontal passage, with highs ranging from the mid 50s near inland southeast Georgia, to mid 60s for north central Florida with northwest winds continuing to bring in cooler and drier air. Lows Thursday night will flirt with touching freezing in southeast Georgia, with patchy frost likely.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Dry conditions continue through the weekend, despite a front moving through the area on Sunday. Temperatures will mainly be in the 60s again Friday, before a nice warmup this weekend. Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the low 70s for southeast Georgia and mid to upper 70s for northeast Florida with mostly sunny skies. Monday will be much cooler following the dry cold frontal passage on Sunday, leaving temperatures in the 50s for southeast Georgia and 60s for northeast Florida with breezy northeasterly winds as the pressure gradient tightens. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will dip into the mid 30s over inland soutehast Georgia, but likely too windy overnight for frost formation at this time.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
High pressure just to the north will build south over the area tonight, west of the TAF sites as coastal troughing to the east weakens over the next several hours.

MVFR broken to overcast ceilings 1.5 to 2.5 kft will continue along the Northeast FL coastal terminals through 06Z and through 02Z at SSI due to the influence of the coastal trouging and northeasterly winds 8-10 knots. At the inland TAF sites light north to northeast winds will trend calm into 06Z and patchy fog will develop and become locally dense, lowering VQQ down to LIFR/VLIFR after 06Z and GNV down to IFR levels by 09Z with improvement by 12Z-14Z back to VFR after sunrise.

The high will shift southwest of the area through Wednesday and light winds will shift from the northwest after 13Z around 5 knots to westerly after 17-18Z about 5-10 knots. The high will limit clouds during the day with sunny skies in the afternoon.

MARINE

High pressure will gradually weaken as it becomes centered over our region tonight, allowing for winds and seas to gradually subside.
Westerly winds will then develop and strengthen on Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching dry frontal boundary, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected offshore on Wednesday night. This front will cross our region late Wednesday night, followed by another high pressure center building towards our region on Thursday and Friday. This high pressure center will then shift offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will approach our local waters from the northwest on Sunday afternoon. This front will likely remain dry as it crosses our local waters on Sunday night. Strong high pressure building to the north of our region in the wake of this frontal passage will result in strengthening northerly winds on Sunday night that will shift to northeasterly on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely throughout our local waters from Sunday night through Monday evening.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Wednesday NE FL Moderate Wednesday

FIRE WEATHER
PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS INLAND NE FL AND COAST FRIDAY...

Good dispersion is expected on Wednesday ahead of an incoming dry cold front that will pass through overnight. Thursday winds will shift to northwesterly behind the front with fair to good dispersion forecast. Min RH Thursday and Friday will dip into the 30s, with values improving this weekend. Light and variable winds Friday will leave poor dispersion with patchy low values near north central Florida and the Atlantic coast.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas to Widespread frost inland SE GA, with patchy frost inland NE FL Tuesday night. Patchy frost inland SE GA Thursday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 29 61 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 37 64 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 37 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 44 68 47 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 38 68 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 42 68 46 66 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-120-220-322-422-522.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 1 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.
GA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ154-166.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.