Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sawgrass, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy to Areas of Fog late Tonight and Early Thursday over portions of southeast Georgia and inland northeast Florida

High Pressure and subsidence will bring another warm and mostly sunny day for the area. Only a few to scattered cumulus clouds developing now along the NE FL coastal counties will shift west through the afternoon, but no rain is expected today as PWATs remain well below average under 1.0 inch for our area except around 1.0 inch across Flagler, Putnam, Marion counties. The clockwise flow around high pressure is producing light onshore northeasterly winds that will become easterly by mid afternoon as the high shifts slowly eastward off the coast of GA/SC and a weak Atlantic seabreeze forms and pushes inland. Temperatures this afternoon in the mid 80s along I-95, low 80s at the coast, and upper 80s to around 90 well inland will begin lower slowly towards sunset as skies allow for continued warm conditions.

Tonight, Clear skies and calm winds will prevail away from the coast in SE GA and west of the St Johns river in NE FL with very light east winds 4-8 mph at the coast. High pressure positioning just ENE of the area will support another late night into early morning fog setup with patchy fog after midnight and areas of fog prior to sunrise along and north of I-10 northeastward to the SE GA coast, likely limiting visibility to 1-2 miles or locally just under a mile. However, not expecting widespread dense fog based on guidance.
Lows will be in the low 60s over SE GA west of I-95 and the mid to upper 60s near the SE GA coast while the NE FL coast lowers to the low 70s and falls to the mid 60s inland.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for a few strong storms over north central FL Friday afternoon

High pressure over the area will begin to shift east towards the Atlantic as a cold front pushes in from the west. The front will begin to push into the area on Friday, sweeping south of the area by Friday night. Easterly onshore winds persist on Thursday, then veer to southwesterly on Friday ahead of the front away from the coast.
Stronger winds are expected to develop along the coast as high pressure builds northwest of the area after the front's passage during the overnight hours into Saturday.

Dry conditions will continue on Thursday. Chances of precipitation make a return Friday for locations across north central Florida, primarily along the coast as onshore flow continues to bring in moisture onshore. Could see a couple of storms develop by the afternoon hours.

Daytime highs will range in the 80s during the end of the work week, with warmer temperatures over inland locations. Overnight Lows will be in the 60s, warmer temperatures along coastal locations.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Saturday through Tuesday

After the passage of a cold front, high pressure builds north of the area this weekend. This will bring elevated northeasterly onshore winds across the local waters and coastal locations through the weekend and into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers along coastal locations through midweek. The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken.

Temperatures will be below average during the period, with daytime highs around the mid to upper 70s during the weekend, upper 70s to lower 80s by next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

The 18Z TAF period will begin with light northeasterly winds 5-8 knots that will trend more easterly through the afternoon as high pressure ridge axis just north of the are terminals shifts slowly eastward. Tonight, winds will become calm after 00Z inland and gradually at SSI, this coupled with clear skies and high pressure still near the area will allow for MVFR to IFR fog to develop after 06Z, that will trend to IFR/LIFR after 08Z inland and at SSI with VSBY/CLNGs restrictions to VLIFR at VQQ due to locally dense fog.
After 14Z Thursday, fog will lift with light and variable winds through the end of the period with mostly sunny skies.

MARINE

High pressure over the southeast states will move slowly east, and push well offshore tonight into Friday with light winds and seas. A strong cold front will cross the local waters late Friday night through Saturday morning, followed by high pressure building to the north. The passage of the cold front will bring a surge of strong north to northeasterly winds over the waters with elevated seas by late Friday night and Saturday into early next week. Small Craft Advisories are anticipated with the potential for Gale conditions this weekend into early next week.

Rip Currents: Northeasterly winds will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches Today through Thursday, while low surf heights keep the risk generally low at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf and a high rip current risk develops this weekend as strong northeasterly winds develop.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Low Dispersions This Afternoon - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday

High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week.

Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon, with fair dispersions expected Thursday afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair dispersions expected over NE FL.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is expected during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required the next few mornings. Thunderstorm potential north central FL Friday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 66 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 70 84 71 86 / 0 10 0 30 GNV 65 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 40 OCF 67 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.