Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Panama City Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 4:43PM Monday December 9, 2019 10:26 PM CST (04:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 4:49AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 831 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019 /731 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019/
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Areas of dense fog.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Areas of fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 831 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis..


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Panama City Beach, FL
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location: 30.21, -85.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 100124 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 824 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

UPDATE.

The earlier forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments. Patchy fog and small areas of denser fog were added to the eastern portion of the CWA in the early morning hours due to flow patterns off of the gulf with relatively calm winds at the surface. Most of the fog is expected to burn off fairly quickly at or shortly after sunrise. Tonight's lows are on track to be in the low 60s toward the coast and upper 50s further inland.

PREV DISCUSSION [618 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Moderately strong surface high pressure over NW Atlantic and an approaching trough from the west will allow deep-layer southwesterly flow to prevail in the near term. This will help usher in warm/moist air into our area. Therefore mostly cloudy skies (but no rain) should persist through this period and contribute to mild overnight low temperatures around 60.

Low dewpoint-depression values will make for a conducive fog environment. Areas of patchy-to-dense fog are therefore expected, starting this evening around Apalachee Bay then becoming more widespread as the overnight hours progress. By around 9z, areawide fog is likely. Overall, confidence in exact fog onset, intensity, and coverage is low.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night].

Patchy dense fog will be likely Tuesday morning across the entire area ahead of the slowly propagating cold front approaching from the west. The positively tilted trough is expected to maintain the bulk of the forcing north of the region; however, a line of scattered showers is expected to develop across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Some showers may produce brief heavy rain; however, long periods of heavy rain are not expected. A few rumbles of thunder may be heard with a few storms that have the potential to tap into the subtle unstable air of roughly 100 J/Kg of CAPE that some models are in agreement with.

Highs on Tuesday will top out around 80 degrees across much of the region. Lows are expected to fall into the upper mid 50s in our eastern areas to upper 40s across our western areas Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday].

Beyond Wednesday, an active period of rain and showers is expected to remain across the region through Saturday. The aforementioned cold front that is expected to move through the area Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to stall across the Gulf of Mexico as it becomes separated from the parent surface cyclone. Increased moisture in the mid-levels across our region from Wednesday through Thursday will allow for spotty shower activity ahead of what will be a gulf low pressure system moving through the region on Friday and Saturday. The differential cyclonic vorticity advection associated with the lingering cold front in the Gulf is expected to merge with an incoming shortwave trough currently over the eastern Pacific.

Currently there are large model discrepancies from run to run with how the evolution of this system on Friday and Saturday will evolve. As of this mornings 12z ECMWF and GFS runs, both are consistent on a weak low pressure system tracking over Tallahassee to the NE through our region. Previous runs of both models from overnight and yesterday have flip flopped from a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms to a more organized low pressure system. If the later does occur, this would provide a more favorable environment for a few isolated severe thunderstorms to develop across our region. Current forecast environmental soundings on Friday show the potential for 25 knots of sfc to 1 km shear. Although instability is currently forecasted to remain low (<100 J/Kg), a severe threat could still unfold given the high shear environment.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Wednesday]

IFR conditions expected at all terminals with the timing potentially off by an hour or two and amendments will likely be necessary. There's a chance VLD and TLH will go to 1/4SM visibility as well. ECP is the lowest confidence in IFR conditions but will continue the IFR forecast and will monitor conditions overnight. Rain showers may be arriving late in the TAF period and added VCSH for a few sites.

MARINE.

Dense marine fog with visibilities less than 1 mile are expected across the near shore coastal waters extending out 20 miles, and stretching from the western tip of St. George island to the Dixie/Levy county line. These lower visibilities are expected to linger across this region for much of Tuesday ahead of the approaching cold front. Behind the cold front on Wednesday night, increasing pressure gradient across the region is expected to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to our coastal waters with winds increasing to 20-25 knots and seas up to 8 ft possible.

FIRE WEATHER.

With a wet pattern in place for the next few days, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected. Although, high dispersions are possible tomorrow afternoon and dense fog is possible in the morning.

HYDROLOGY.

Although a wet pattern will be in place across the region through the weekend, with heavier rain expected on Friday and Saturday, the amounts expected will not be enough to produce flooding concerns at this time. Much of the region is still in moderate drought.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 59 80 52 66 46 / 0 20 40 50 50 Panama City 64 77 52 63 48 / 0 50 50 50 50 Dothan 60 78 47 57 42 / 10 60 50 60 40 Albany 62 80 51 60 45 / 0 50 50 50 40 Valdosta 60 81 54 67 46 / 0 10 40 40 50 Cross City 57 80 59 74 51 / 0 10 30 40 40 Apalachicola 63 76 55 66 50 / 0 30 40 50 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.



UPDATE . LN/Bowen NEAR TERM . IG SHORT TERM . Bunker LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . LN MARINE . Bunker FIRE WEATHER . McD HYDROLOGY . Bunker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 0 mi62 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 66°F 66°F1018 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 12 mi56 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 64°F
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 58 mi56 min S 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 64°F1018.5 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 60 mi101 min SE 1.9 1019 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL11 mi33 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F60°F93%1018.7 hPa
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL18 mi90 minSE 52.75 miFog/Mist63°F61°F95%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECP

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E11E9E11E10E7SE3CalmCalmCalmS6SW10SW14SW12--SW10S11SW8CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoNE3NE5NE5NE5E8NE8E8NE8NE8NE10
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2 days agoCalmCalmNE3NW7N6N8NW6N6N4N7N6N5NE4NE5--N6NW5N6N4CalmE4NE3NE3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:29 AM CST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:49 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 03:10 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:43 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:09 PM CST     1.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.20.30.30.40.50.60.80.91.11.21.21.21.21.10.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:49 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:10 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:43 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:20 PM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.70.50.30.10-0-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.60.70.911.21.31.41.31.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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