Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Henderson Point, MS

SHORT TERM
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through the weekend as multiple mid/upper level disturbances move through the Mississippi Valley. We're in a bit of a holding pattern overnight as one disturbance has exited the area, with the frontal boundary south of Interstate 10. As the front loses its upper support, it will continue to slow and stall near the coast before washing out during the morning.

The next disturbance will begin to eject out of northern Mexico during the day in response to another shortwave diving southeast through the Rockies. This should be enough to fire off scattered to locally numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms across the region this afternoon.

Late tonight and Saturday look to be the wettest periods as the disturbance crosses the local area firing off numerous showers and embedded storms across the region. With PW values forecast to be around 2 inches, some storms will be capable of producing efficent rainfall. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least a few storms producing localized totals of 1-2" in a short period of time. The high rainfall rates could lead to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas and/or isolated flash flooding. We continue to be outlooked with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall through Saturday, and if it looks like convection will become a bit more organized, the threat level could be bumped up to slight.

Yet another disturbance will move into/through the middle Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday night. This one will force a cold front through the area with another round of showers and storms along/ahead of it.

Clouds and precipitation are expected to hold diurnal temperature ranges down to about 10 degrees today and Saturday. Sunday may be a little warmer, especially if we get a little sunshine ahead of the approaching trough and cold front.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Model agreement through the long term period is in decently good agreement, and this lends to higher confidence in a drier and more stable period of weather once we move past Sunday night. Sunday night will continue to see a risk of shower and thunderstorm activity due to the passage of a strong northern stream longwave trough axis and associated frontal boundary through the region. A review of model soundings for Sunday night indicates that shear will be limited with directional shear peaking around 100 m2/s2 and speed shear of 30 knots or less. However, ample instability will be in place ahead of the front with MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/KG expected for the overnight hours. As a result, despite the limited shear, a few stronger thunderstorms could accompany the front as it passes through the region.

After the trough axis and attendant front sweep east of the area on Monday, strong negative vorticity and dry air advection will take hold on the back of a building ridge and deep layer northerly flow Skies will rapidly clear and PWATS will plunge around half an inch by Tuesday morning. These clear and dry conditions will persist through Thursday night as the deep layer northerly flow pattern remains in place. Temperatures will be near to slightly above average, but a large diurnal range is expected each day. Highs will easily climb into the low to mid 80s each afternoon, but overnight lows will cool a good 30 degrees into the mid to upper 50s over inland areas and the low 60s south of Lake Pontchartrain both Monday and Tuesday nights. Some slow warming of the overnight lows back into the low to mid 60s over inland areas the mid to upper 60s south of the lake will occur on Wednesday and Thursday night. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather is expected from Monday through the end of the workweek.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A persistent stratus deck will remain in place for most terminals through the entire forecast period. This stratus deck will vary between IFR and MVFR conditions at all of the terminals with prevailing ceilings ranging from 800 to 2000 feet. MVFR ceilings of 1000 to 2000 feet will be prevalent at the terminals for the next few hours. After 08z, the stratus deck will gradually lower to near 1000 feet expected from 10z through late morning. As temperatures warm, the stratus deck will lift back to around 1500 to 2000 feet after 18z. Convective activity will also increase after 16z, and PROB30 wording is in place to add in a mention of scattered thunderstorm activity at all of the terminals.
Precipitation will likely continue into the overnight hours, but coverage of thunderstorms may diminish.

MARINE
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A weak frontal boundary will continue to wash out near the coast overnight. By afternoon, south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will return, and these winds will persist through the weekend. Another frontal boundary will move into the waters Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing offshore winds to the waters for early next week. Winds should remain below headline criteria through the period, with the greatest concern being scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Saturday through Sunday night.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.