Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange Beach, AL

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 355 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

An upper trof over the interior eastern states which extends to near the 4 Corners area evolves into a meridional orientation over the eastern states through tonight, then moves off into the western Atlantic through Thursday night. A surface ridge over the eastern states gradually becomes oriented along the northern Gulf coast through tonight and remains close to this position through Thursday night. Dry conditions prevail through the period, except for mainly slight chance pops tonight over the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi due to a series of shortwaves in the passing upper trof and a temporary modest improvement in deep layer moisture. A few sprinkles will be possible near the coast this morning as well. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 50s, then highs on Thursday will be around 60. Lows tonight range from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast, and the overnight precipitation is anticipated to be a cold rain. Lows Thursday night range from the lower 30s inland to near 40 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected during the period. /29

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Looking at the forecast, guidance starts in good agreement into the weekend, then diverges, with a possiblity of winter weather at the end of the forecast.

First, taking a look at the first round of precipitation, a stretching upper trough moves over the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday, with another shortwave system hot on its heels. A weakly organized surface low that has organized over the Plains passes over the Southeast followed by a strong cold front. Ahead of the coming system, southerly flow returns Friday, with moisture levels increasing into Friday night. Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected later Friday night through Saturday morning before shifting south of the forecast area. Looking as some of the severe parameters, Bulk wind shear of 50-65 knots, along with decent upper divergence as an upper jet passes and a generally linear wind profile is indicated. 850mb jet of 40-50kts (depending upon the model). What is lacking is instability. Guidance is consistent in warming the mid and upper levels more than the boundary layer over land, keeping the instability over and south of the coast as a surface boundary organizes near the coast. If the boundary moves inland, strong to marginally severe more surface based storms are a possiblity. Will have to monitor for water issues, though, with the upper dynamics helping to drive the creation of the embedded thunderstorms. Temperatures Friday through Saturday remain above seasonal norms, then drop Saturday night as the cold front passes. High temperatures in the low to mid 60s Friday and mid to upper 60s Saturday expected. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s expected Friday night drop into the upper 30s west of the Alabama River to upper 40s over the Florida panhandle Saturday night. Cold Weather Advisory conditions are expected over the northern third of the forecast area Saturday night as stronger winds along with the influx of colder air drop the apparent temperatures.

Sunday through Monday night...a combination of surface high pressure over the Plains and a developing surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico will bring an influx of bitterly cold air. High temperatures Sunday randing from the upper 40s west of the Alabama River to upper 50s over the western Florida Panhandle drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Monday. Low temperatures ranging from around 20 over northwestern portions of the area to upper 20s near the coast are expected. Looking at apparent temperatures for this portion of the forecast, single digits are possible north of Highway 84, with teens south. Cold weather wwas are likely forecast area wide. Guidance has been inconsistent with the strength of the cold surge south over the Southeast, so have less confidence that the forecast may be as cold as the latest guidance is advertising. The type of cold weather wwa is hard to pin down at this time as a result.

The end of the forecast on Tuesday remains a challenge, mainly with another round of precipitation expected over the forecast area as an upper level shortwave trough sags south over the Conus. Guidance has been inconsistent with the timing of the return of precipitation.
With the strong northerly push of cold air over the forecast area Sunday into Monday continuing into Tuesday, a wintry mix is possible when the precipitation returns, and hard to pin down at this time.
Have leaned towards a slower return of precipitation Tuesday. The cold conditions are expected to continue into mid week.

With onshore flow returning Friday and increasing into the weekend, a Low risk of rip currents mid week becomes High late Friday into the Sunday before dropping back to low for the coming week.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Small craft should exercise caution this morning well offshore due to northeasterly winds at 15 to 20 knots which subside through the day. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary Friday night into Saturday morning as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. In the wake of the cold front, another Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary beginning Saturday night and lasting into at least the early part of next week. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 57 38 60 35 64 54 68 42 / 10 20 0 0 0 80 80 30 Pensacola 57 44 60 40 65 57 67 47 / 10 20 0 0 0 70 90 40 Destin 60 46 62 43 65 59 70 51 / 0 20 0 0 0 60 100 60 Evergreen 58 35 61 32 64 48 67 41 / 0 10 0 0 0 80 80 30 Waynesboro 57 32 61 31 64 49 68 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 90 60 10 Camden 57 31 59 31 62 47 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 90 80 30 Crestview 59 37 62 33 65 50 69 46 / 0 20 0 0 0 70 90 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.