Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange Beach, AL

UPDATE
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A few patches of light fog are present mainly over interior areas and will burn off shortly after sunrise. The forecast is on track for today with no changes planned. /29

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Through Wednesday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast opens into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, which then shifts east as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast. A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast, shift a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the region. The push is greater west of the Mississippi River, shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area south.
Guidance is inconsistent with the shift, with some dropping moisture levels to 1.5" or less by Wednesday evening (most mesoscale models)
to 1.5"-2" (the global models and ensembles). Any which way one cuts it, POPs drop into mid week. In combination with the building upper ridge, scattered PoPs Monday drop to isolated, seabreeze driven by Wednesday. As with this time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg) and DCapes (700-1000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe pulse type storms to be possible each afternoon/evening into mid week.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures above seasonal norms into mid week. High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range are expected. Boundary layer moisture remains high enough for heat indices to top out in the 100-106 degree range. Low temperatures do see a bit of a drop with the drop in deep layer moisture, from low to mid 70s Monday night, to the upper 60s to around 70 inland, mid 70s along the coast Wednesday night.

Thursday on...as the surface low off the East Coast organizes a bit more, then moves north along the coast, a secondary cold front moves southwest along the Appalachians, reinforcing the dry air over the Southeast along with dropping temperatures to near seasonal norms by the end of the coming weekend.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through the week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf coast in the coming weekend, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend.
/16

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms develop across much of the area this afternoon and linger into the evening hours.
MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms. Northeast to east winds around 5 knots are expected to develop this morning, then become southerly near the coast in the afternoon. /29

MARINE
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday.
Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 92 72 92 72 / 40 20 30 0 Pensacola 90 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 0 Destin 89 75 90 76 / 20 20 20 0 Evergreen 93 68 94 68 / 20 20 20 0 Waynesboro 95 70 95 69 / 30 20 20 20 Camden 94 71 94 69 / 20 20 20 10 Crestview 92 69 93 70 / 20 20 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.