Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange Beach, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 142355 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Now through Sunday night

A strong upper level shortwave swings though a mean upper trough over the Mississippi River today into tonight, with more upper energy moving through the mean upper trough late tonight through Saturday. This energy is being directed over the Southeast on the north side of an upper ridge over the Gulf to the tropical Atlantic.
A surface ridge stretching west over the Gulf continues to pump Gulf moisture inland (precipitable h20 values in the 1.8"-2.0" range through the Near Term). Daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop over land during the day again Sunday, from scattered convection developing south of the northern Gulf coast overnight into the early morning. Pretty much the same ole story with respect to rowdy storms, with afternoon MLCapes in the 2500- 3000J/kg range and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range. Bulk shear is well below that need for organized storms, so the storms are expected to be of the usual pulse severe type, with downburst winds and small hail expected.

Temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected through the Near Term. High temperatures have topped out in the upper 80s to around 90 today, with Heat Indices topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s. The same is expected for Sunday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast tonight and again Saturday night.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into the coming week.
/16

Monday Through Friday Night

Upper ridging across the southeast U.S. attempts to build in through Wednesday of next week as a series of weak shortwaves transit areas to our north. Overall rain chances gradually diminish, particularly as we get into late week and the weekend as upper ridging strengthens across the southern and central CONUS.
Expect scattered to locally numerous coverage of showers and storms Monday, particularly in the vicinity of the seabreeze boundary, with proceeding days seeing more isolated to scattered coverage. Locally higher coverage is possible nearer the seabreeze boundary. Ample CAPE and weak shear any given day will favor pulse type ordinary cells that could become strong during peak heating each day producing gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Afternoon highs begin to increase into the lower 90's most days, perhaps even mid 90's by mid to late week. Overnight lows remain warm in the lower to middle 70's each night. A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place Monday through Wednesday. MM/25
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