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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 409 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 409 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
strong high pressure will slowly slide across the waters through tomorrow evening. Colder air will accompany this high resulting in increased offshore winds and higher seas through this afternoon. The high will settle across the region by tonight and into midweek allowing winds and seas to ease. The high will begin to shift east of the local waters on Thursday, with a return to a moderate onshore flow.

FXUS64 KLIX 282315 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 515 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 412 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Quite the sunny cool day across the region. By 20z temps ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s and dewpoints have fallen into the lower 30s to mid 20s across most of the region and this could be key in tonight's forecast which is tricky but then the whole forecast is iffy right now. Model continuity and consistency has definitely taken a hit today and this is muddying the forecast making it a rather low confidence forecast.

First forecast challenge is the temp forecast tonight and free potential. Everything screams optimal radiational cooling potential yet little of the guidance is indicating this happening. Skies will be clear; at the most very thin wispy cirrus. Winds will decouple at the sfc and should be well below 10kt for most of the area at h925.
Dewpoints this afternoon have plummeted into the lower 20s in a few locations but they have fallen to at least the lower 30s or more across the rest of the area. TPW (Total Precipitable Water) is anywhere from 0.3 to 0.4" and this is exactly what this mornings sndg had with the PW down to 0.4" in the 12z sndg. The only con I can really see is perhaps winds just off the deck just don't weaken fast enough but that is a stretch. See no reason we should not radiate nicely through the night and feel the NBm is too warm and even most of the guidance appears to warm. Temperatures will likely drop like a rock this evening and then a steady slow drop through the night, especially in the drainage areas along the Pearl and Pascagoula Rivers as well as portions of the west bank especially near Belle Chasse. Only changes made to the Freeze warning was to include the rest of Harrison and add West Baton Rouge as that side of the river can cool more and faster than the east side. There is a big potential for temps to get much colder than what we are currently showing and some upper 20s are likely tonight but with no guidance hitting the col hard tonight and then NBM as it usually is on the warm side just not quite confident enough to take that big a bite out of the apple but it wouldn't surpise me to see MCB, ASD and PQL and a few other locations in the upper 20s and NBG in the mid 30s.

Thursday and into Friday a lot of questions pop up. First is how much rain will we see as some models have of course shifted course and there is now quite a bit of spread from with respect to timing and amount. Second question is that makes the potential for locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding even more uncertain and less likely. Third question, will we see any strong to severe storms and not very confident in that aspect now.

Our main protagonist is still offshore in the eastern Pacific. This system should finally begin to move onshore over CA early tomorrow morning as a lot of energy continue to drive down the backside of this system which should continue to drop it along the CA/AZ/Mexico border heading into tomorrow evening. This is where models start to diverge. The more reliable models still hold onto a lot of the mid lvl jet energy up stream helping to keep the system more amplified while a few others try to have the energy rounding the base of the trough already thus leading to it pulling out to the ENE faster and with a much flatter mid lvl pattern. Not buying the 2nd situation as with that much energy in the system and more coming out of the Pac well south of it a more amplified pattern seems to be the better choice. With that we likely won't see the main disturbance completely pull away till late Friday morning. However, will there be any lead impulses and if so how many. Again fear the GFS is suffering from some convective feedback as it has a few impulses ahead of the main disturbance where as most of the other models that are in the same camp generally have one. The GFS thus tries to bring one round of precip rather quickly moving through the CWA between 21- 03z then light activity through the remainder of the night and through much of the morning hours. Even if there is a lead impulse well ahead we likely wont have recovered enough to get much rain with mostly virga through the afternoon. Given that feel like the main time frame for convection will be from 00z or shortly after that and then though the night. Expecting light rain most of the night once it starts but there will be a window where we could get a pretty good shot of thunderstorms however, trying to time that right now is futile especially given this system is still in the Pacific.
The main disturbance quickly moves to the northeast and quickly opens up then gets absorbed in the main flow. This just leads to the associated sfc low moving from the southern/central Plains towards the OH/TN Valleys and filing through the day. The front with it will have almost no support to continue to push southeast and could just stall right over the cwa. This leaves the region in southwest flow aloft which will be parallel to whatever boundary is draped over the region and will just lead to additional rounds of storms possibly as early as overnight Friday.

So first the locally heavy rain and flash flooding concerns. Well the flash flooding really looks to be minimal as any storm itself will be quite progressive. The main concern to watch is as everything starts to pull away to the northeast a few storms could line up in a WSW to ENE line with a few areas getting heavy rain in a short time. That said any flash flooding would be very isolated.
Also unlike yesterday things are looking quite as impressive from a locally heavy rain standpoint now and that may be because everything looks so messy. There is still diffluence aloft and a strong LL wind field but we will only have a small window of impressive LL convergence and the diffluence aloft is not as impressive as yesterday. There is still instability to work with so there will be thunderstorms but the amount of moisture is a little more uncertain.
We could still see PWs approaching 2" but once moisture approaches that level we will begin to lose the forcing and other support overnight that would help the rain efficiency.

As for strong/severe..highly uncertain. There is still a threat and the shear is ridiculous through 06z but any storms will likely be well elevated...possibly based closer to h8. Again like yesterday there may be a winds from 03-09z where we could cool off enough in the mid lvls leading to possibly storms approaching sfc based but this is such a small window it would be like threading a needle in the dark and the thread is frayed. However, like yesterday the h925 winds still could be howling around 40-50kt and if we can get a few potent storms they may be able to help get that down to the ground momentarily. If the boundary recovers faster and we get warmer Thursday then the severe risk could increase quite considerably but this looks to be a highly improbable outcome. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 412 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

As much uncertainty as there is in the short term there is even more in the long term. The medium range models have had terrible consistency between runs and there has been far less continuity between the models now. Overall rainfall projections are considerably lower than they were yesterday and this is shown by most of the 12z guidance and the ensemble means. NBM is still holding onto a little more rainfall and the rain holding on into Monday. With out system still in the Pacific and a lot of energy back there just don't have any confidence to make any major adjustments to the NBM.

Southwest flow will remain in place Friday through Sunday with one or two more impulses expected to push through the area. Depending on the placement of the boundary and if it is even there anymore and how much moisture is still in place as we should really not get cleaned out, there is still some potential for locally heavy rain with another 1 to 3 inches of rain through Sunday. It is going into next week where the models really shifted and have no idea what will happen. 12z guidance now pushes all of the moisture east late Sunday even though the main trough axis is still west and we don't get the cold front to actually move through till early Monday and the colder air doesn't arrive till Tuesday...well cooler air. Again with so much uncertainty and a lot of Pacific energy just sticking with the NBM which may be accurate as it does have rain holding on into Monday which makes logical sense with the deep southwest flow still in place into Monday afternoon. /CAB/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A very dry and very stable airmass over the region will keep skies clear and VFR conditions in place at all of the terminals through the end of the forecast period. PG

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 412 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

No issues tonight with VFR conditions persisting well into tomorrow. /CAB/

MARINE
Issued at 412 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

High pressure is moving into the region and winds have been relaxing all day. High pressure will finally start to push off the east overnight Wednesday and moderate to possibly strong onshore flow will redevelop Thursday. Headlines will be needed Thursday and Thursday night. Rain and storms also increase during the afterooon and storms will likely impact the coastal waters off and on into next week. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 31 62 41 65 / 0 0 0 50 BTR 36 66 46 70 / 0 0 0 60 ASD 32 63 43 70 / 0 0 0 30 MSY 46 62 51 69 / 0 0 0 40 GPT 34 60 45 68 / 0 0 0 20 PQL 30 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-047-048-071-076-079-081-083.

GM...None.
MS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.

GM...None.

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Cat Island (West Point)
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Tue -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:56 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:42 AM CST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:15 PM CST     2.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi, Tide feet

Ship Island Pass
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Tue -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:05 AM CST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:17 PM CST     2.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ship Island Pass, Mississippi, Tide feet

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