Monday, August3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pass Christian, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:49PM Monday August 3, 2020 1:26 PM CDT (18:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:14PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 936 Am Cdt Mon Aug 3 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east late in the morning, then becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northwest winds near 5 knots becoming west late in the morning, then becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 936 Am Cdt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis.. Weak high pressure will remain in place over the gulf through the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pass Christian, MS
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location: 30.22, -89.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 031733 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1233 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

AVIATION. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds and generally partly cloudy skies.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 636 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/

.EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

Performed an early morning gridded update to reflect recent radar trends. Specifically focusing on lower Plaquemines Parish and marine areas. Attempted to catch what the 06Z HRRR was hinting at earlier tonight with a blowup of convection on the mouth of the Mississippi and introduced 15-20 PoP's but lo and behold, a very impressive build of severe thunderstorms over marine areas. This is along an old frontal boundary giving just enough spark on top of very warm Gulf waters with no real thermal/baroclinic gradient to speak of. These will dissipate shortly after sunrise. KLG

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 419 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday Night) .

Taking a quick glance/overview of the synoptic set up across the southeastern US, the same slow moving longwave trough continues to meander across the MS valley from the Great Lakes, south to the LA coastline. Yesterday, our position well downstream of the trough axis helped provide enough PVA/curvature in the H5 level, combined with plentiful tropospheric moisture to produce a few showers and even some strong thunderstorms. A progressive and unidirectional H5 to H3 flow gave some beautiful flared anvils to the storms, helping to keep the stronger storms more organized. This, combined with ample surface instability and DCAPE in the 1000J/kg+ and supportive WMSI/WindEx parameters helped to produce strong wet microbursts. However, this will change for today as the trough progresses every so slightly east, allowing for very dry mid to upper tropospheric air to work in upstream of the axis. This is highly evident comparing yesterday's 18Z KLIX sounding with the 06Z HRRR run valid for 18Z MON (Today). Loading in a baseline NBM PoP produces just about nothing in coverage today, even when blending NBM with CONSShort only hits a few areas along the MS coast SW to the SE LA coastline. While the dry air upstream of the trough pulling in will help suppress the coverage much less than yesterday, I felt obligated to go with atleast isolated shower/storm chances in these aforementioned areas and have increasing PoP's just slightly enough to mention it. It should be known - atmospheric parameters for wet microbursts are the same, if not slightly higher today versus yesterday, with DCAPE 1300J/kg+ and supportive WMSI/WindEx. It'll be advertised that IF any isolated shower or storm develops south of I-10/12 and along the MS coastline, they could be strong similar to yesterday with gusty winds the main threat. But again, coverage will be far less than yesterday with many people experiencing a dry, hot day.

We dry out overnight tonight. By Tuesday, we become parked well deep into the upstream portion of the eastward progressing trough, with a prominent NW flow regime setting up. Even a weak front (ditching the "cold" part) will try to swing through the area late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, which looks to knock Td's down atleast 5-8 degrees for areas along and north of I-10/12. It may just be enough to feel a slight difference in the air in these areas come early Wednesday morning, but the heat will build once again in the afternoon. Latest 00Z 12KM NAM tonight along with previous runs attempt to pull the front down to the SE LA coastline by Wednesday afternoon then stall, and with plenty of afternoon mixing in the works - I would not be surprised to see many lower to mid 60's dewpoints along/north of I-10/12, with upper 60's poking down into south of the Lake. Have made minor adjustments to Wednesday's Td's and attendant MinRH's to reflect this as blended guidance is not picking up on this well enough. Otherwise, PoP's remain on the low side Tuesday and Wednesday with best chances of isolated t-storm's along and south of I-10/12 residing with higher surface Td's, while lower Td's north of I-10/12 will keep higher LCL's/higher convective temperature owing difficulty in t-storm development. KLG

LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday) .

Overall it still looks like things will transition to more of a typical Summer pattern late this week and next weekend. Isolated to scattered storms and hot conditions will return. Stuck close to the NBM with the exception of highs Fri and into the weekend where highs were bumped up a degree or two.

Thursday, this still looks like transition day. The mid levels start to become less amplified as the L/W trough over the eastern CONUS dampens and lifts out. That said dry air will still be over the region and this will likely keep things mostly dry. However, LL winds will begin to come around to the south and this will begin to start pumping moisture back into the region. LL temps will still be around 23-24C leading to highs in the lower 90s.

Friday and through the weekend we will be dominated by a mid level ridge. The ridge that is currently over the desert SW with the ridge axis extending into western Canada will build east. This ridge will connect to the Atlantic Ridge and remain in place over the south- central and southeastern CONUS through Sunday. H925 temps will slowly inch up to around 25C (maybe even 26C) and that would translate to mid 90s, especially this weekend. The one caveat to these highs is the possibility of convection. Even though the ridge will be over the region it won't be centered over the area and with deep moisture in place we will likely see seabreeze activity develop. How much and how far inland it penetrates is a bigger question. If storms struggle then there is a good chance we will be near heat adv conditions again this weekend. /CAB/

MARINE .

Light to moderate winds will prevail for the next 5 to 7 days, with seas roughly 3 feet or less. A cold front will attempt to dive south late Tuesday and into Wednesday but will struggle to push into marine waters. Any shower or storm development will be isolated, however night time flare ups of convection could still be possible at times, with gusty erratic winds the main threats. Otherwise, no additional threats are expected through the forecast period. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 91 72 91 71 / 10 0 10 0 BTR 93 72 92 72 / 10 0 10 0 ASD 93 73 93 72 / 10 0 20 0 MSY 92 76 93 76 / 10 0 10 0 GPT 90 75 90 74 / 10 0 10 0 PQL 93 73 94 72 / 20 0 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 14 mi57 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 89°F 85°F1015.2 hPa
42067 - USM3M02 30 mi87 min WNW 9.7 G 9.7 86°F 1 ft1014.6 hPa (+0.3)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 31 mi57 min 85°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 32 mi57 min WSW 7 G 8 85°F 1015.2 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 38 mi102 min SSW 2.9 85°F 1016 hPa77°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 38 mi57 min NNW 6 G 8 85°F 87°F1015.5 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi87 min W 7 1014.9 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Gulfport Outer Range, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS13 mi34 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F72°F56%1014.2 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS18 mi31 minWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F76°F71%1014.8 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS21 mi37 minWNW 6 G 107.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F71°F55%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGPT

Wind History from GPT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7SW44SW6CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmNW3CalmNW3CalmN3333N73
1 day agoS95S6S7S6
G15
S5S5S4S5SW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN4N3NW6NW4W5--
2 days agoS10SW10
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S9SW4SW44SW7SW5S7S9
G21
3NW5SW3CalmCalmSW33W8W756SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
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Mon -- 06:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM CDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 AM CDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:13 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:43 PM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.20.40.60.91.11.41.722.22.32.42.32.11.91.61.310.70.40.20.100

Tide / Current Tables for Ship Island Pass, Mississippi
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Ship Island Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM CDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 AM CDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:13 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:06 PM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.50.70.91.21.51.822.22.42.42.32.11.91.61.20.90.60.30.20.100

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.