Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eden Isle, LA

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

A hot day is ongoing across the board today. Some locations have reached heat advisory criteria such as MSY and NEW just before convection helped bring down temperatures a bit. Meanwhile, upstream across MS we are watching what is left of a MCS cold pool moving south and westward almost similar to a backdoor cold front. This feature will help develop some weaker updrafts, however, over the last hour it's been a challenge to even find lightning with this activity. The good news is once it arrives we can probably drop today's heat advisory for the MS Gulf Coast and perhaps other locations that experienced rain and likely will not rebound back to heat advisory criteria. As for convection, no severe weather is expected, but the wider and more robust updrafts may contain strong winds.

Overnight there remains a weak signal for fog from BTR to MCB.
Added some patchy fog into the forecast based on the last few days fog verification...although if most of these locations remain dry today the potential may be a bit more limited.

Going into Friday another heat advisory is needed. Upper level trough exits leading to ridging overhead, which will help limit coverage of convection. There will still be storms around, however, the numbers will be a bit lower than today. Given the lack of storms and likely later convective initiation times, think we will again heat up quickly and a heat advisory will be needed for the same locations that received an adv today and also adding additional zones across interior south MS and the Florida Parishes. Once again, severe potential will be very low, but cannot rule out a wind gust or two. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

An H5 593dam ridge will reside over the midsouth region going into the upcoming weekend. This will continue to keep most of the region hot with perhaps additional heat advisories possible. That said, the region will find itself under easterly flow aloft and within this flow several easterly waves will move under the ridge and affect our region with an uptick in POPs, especially during the diurnal cycle.

Through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek, this aforementioned ridge really builds stronger as it centers over the Appalachians or Ohio River Valley. In fact, the ridge may end up near 600dam, which spells a very hot forecast for much of the eastern half of the country including right here at home. That said, the heat will likely be mitigated a good bit with passing easterly waves and the enhancement of daily convection. As of now timing is a bit uncertain with each wave so specifics are a bit fuzzy, but overall confidence in higher coverage of daily activity is rather solid. (Frye)

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Scattered convection should be weakening/dissipating over the next hour or two, but will necessitate VCTS or TEMPO until about 02z.
Likely to see IFR or lower conditions at KMCB around sunrise, as has happened the last couple mornings. Tomorrow is likely to be the day with the least convective activity for the week with the upper ridge forecast to be centered near the Louisiana-Arkansas border. Will not carry any mention of TSRA during the day tomorrow, but the threat is not zero.

MARINE
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Outside of convection benign marine conditions expected through the period with most winds at or below 15kts and seas at or below 4ft respectively. Locally higher winds and seas likely in and around convection, which will mainly occur during the overnight and morning hours. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 93 73 94 / 30 30 10 30 BTR 73 94 75 94 / 30 30 0 40 ASD 72 93 75 94 / 40 30 10 40 MSY 76 94 79 94 / 30 30 10 40 GPT 73 92 76 92 / 40 30 20 40 PQL 72 94 74 94 / 40 40 20 40

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ070-071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.