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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 345 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft exercise caution in effect until noon cst today...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters rough. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters rough. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 345 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis..
high pressure settling overhead will maintain light to moderate N to ne winds and seas around 2-4 ft today. Tonight into Wednesday, a high pressure will slide east allowing winds to turn east and eventually se by late Wed/early Thurs. Around that same time, winds will start to become strong and breezy once again, with another period of small craft advisory conditions expected. Also at the same time, elevated rain chances return to the forecast with scattered to widespread convection expected to persist through the later half of the week and into the weekend.

FXUS64 KLCH 280945 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 345 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Currently we are experiencing light northerly winds with temps in the upper 30s to 40s this morning. A surface high pressure is centered over the ArkLaMiss region, and it will continue to make its way east over the day. Overhead we have near zonal flow with an upper ridge over the Caribbean and another ridge over the Desert SW / 4 Corners States. The upper ridge out to our west will flatten as it moves east and the surface high will continue to move off to the east as well.

Going into tomorrow, winds will return out of the south thanks to the departing surface high. This will allow a rich plume of Gulf moisture to advect into the region ahead of an upper trough set to push through on Thursday. PWATs are in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range which is above the 90th percentile for this time. 24H QPF totals range from about 1 to 3 inches. Looking at rainfall probabilities on Thursday, there is around a 75% chance of receiving at least an inch of rain across a majority of the CWA and around a 50% chance of receiving 2+ inches in some areas. With the latest rainfall events not completely coming to fruition, this still needs to be monitored. Nevertheless, we are in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and its not out of the woods to see some minor flooding over burn scar areas or areas that see higher rainfall rates. Another thing to keep an eye on is the risk for severe weather. All of SETX and the western extent of the Parishes along the TX border are in a Slight Risk, with the rest of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.

We will see a warming trend over the short term period with temps making it back to their climo norms. Today, temps will max out in the 60s. Tonight will be much cooler, with parts of CenLA seeing temps fall to freezing under clear skies. By the end of the short term, MaxTs will be in the mid 60s and MinTs will be in the 50s to 60s.

Stigger/87

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

The trough that is producing the rain, for the second half of the week, will be moving away from the region by Friday. This will remove most of the extra lift from the region but we still expect a few showers and storms on Friday. Moving into Saturday another disturbance will bring additional rainfall. This disturbance will be along the coast and precipitation will mainly be along the I-10 corridor. PWAT values during this time are a above the 75th percentile, around 1.3 inches. Based on these factors the WPC has placed Acadiana under a Marginal Risk for flash flooding, for Friday and Saturday.

Around Sunday evening, after the passage of the second disturbance, a cold front will move into our area bringing cooler temperatures and drier air. The northerly wind will rapidly cause our air column to dry out with PWAT vales on Monday below the 10th percentile.

Friday through Sunday temperatures will be slightly higher than the seasonal norms due to the southernly flow. We will see highs near 70 degrees with lows in the upper 50s. By Monday temperatures will head back to the climatological mean with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Slaughter/14

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Dry and stable air will be found in the low levels along with light north to northeast flow as high pressure builds in. Mainly mid and high levels clouds will be moving across during the overnight before thinning out on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the period.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

High pressure settling overhead will maintain light to moderate N to NE winds and seas around 2-4 ft Today. Tonight into Wednesday, a high pressure will slide east allowing winds to turn east and eventually SE by late Wed/early Thurs. Around that same time, winds will start to become strong and breezy once again, with another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Also at the same time, elevated rain chances return to the forecast with scattered to widespread convection expected to persist through the later half of the week and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 61 32 63 43 / 0 0 0 40 LCH 62 39 65 52 / 0 0 0 40 LFT 62 38 65 51 / 0 0 0 20 BPT 64 43 67 56 / 0 0 0 50

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Calcasieu Pass
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Tue -- 01:20 AM CST     1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:12 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:54 AM CST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:53 PM CST     2.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:16 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:34 PM CST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana, Tide feet

Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:12 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:53 AM CST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM CST     2.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:16 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana (2), Tide feet

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