Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange Park, FL

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

As deep layer ridging over the FL peninsula centers to the east of the the SE US coast, drier air will be over the area with near normal moisture levels about 1.50-1.8 inches. Underneath the ridge, the associated surface high ridge axis will stretch across NE FL from the Atlantic waters and promote southerly flow aloft. This pattern will allow both the Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes to move inland and merge near highway 301 Wednesday, but allow the Gulf seabreeze to progress further on Thursday as a trough approaches from the northwest and brings more southwest flow over the area.
Still expect scattered showers and T'storms developing in the afternoon each day given aforementioned drier air involved.

Daytime highs will be in the mid 90s for most areas and low 90s at the beaches due to an increase in heights with the lifting ridge just to the east. Overnight lows will be a little above normal in the mid 70s along the coast and low to mid 70s inland.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Friday, a progressive mid/upper level trough north of the region will move eastward off the Eastern seaboard with an associated surface cold front dragging southward from the southern Appalachians into the coastal plains of the Carolinas. On Saturday, the mid/upper level trough axis will exit into the Atlantic and remove support from the front, causing it to stall and slowly dissipate near the Altamaha river basin as high pressure moves from the OH and TN valley into the central and southern Appalachians. This pattern will support numerous showers and T'storms as moisture pools along and ahead of the front as it slows and stalls over southern GA.

By the end of the weekend and into early next week, ridging aloft will build over the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic states, with surface high pressure reforming east the Southeast US coast and promoting easterly flow over the area. This will allow for a great reduction in pops with isolated T'storms confined to areas well inland.

Temperatures will begin the period above normal with highs in the mid 90s away from the coast and low 90s at the beaches and slightly lower into the low to mid 90s inland this weekend.
Lows will be near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR expected through the morning with possible MVFR vsby occurring at VQQ soon. Light southwest winds near 5-10 kt expected by mid morning with transition to the southeast in the aftn for the coastal TAFs with the Atlantic sea breeze. Generally scattered convection this afternoon and early evening so have PROB30 groups for storms with details and refinement expected later as confidence increases on t-storm affects at the terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The Atlantic ridge axis will remain across the FL peninsula the rest of the week with prevailing flow from the south and southwest each morning and shifting to more south and southeast in the aftn with the sea breeze circulation. Winds may reach up to small craft exercise caution criteria in the evening hours for mainly offshore waters. The ridge will lift up into the region over the weekend with a lighter wind flow anticipated. Overall, lower rain chances over area waters through Thursday, and then increasing Fri into the weekend as a weak front enters the southeast states and moisture increases again. Seas mainly in the 2-4 ft range with short period wind waves and some long period swells showing mainly 8-10 seconds, and weak energy at 14-15 seconds.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents indicated again in the surf zone outlook, with surf of about 2+ ft and a moderately strong longshore current flowing northward. This is likely again on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 10 SSI 90 76 90 77 / 30 20 20 10 JAX 94 74 94 74 / 40 20 40 10 SGJ 92 75 92 75 / 40 10 20 10 GNV 94 73 95 73 / 50 20 40 10 OCF 94 73 94 73 / 40 20 30 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.