Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Shores, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 121130 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 630 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 509 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Now Through Tuesday Night...

We are finally getting to the end of this pesky upper level low as it will begin to slowly lift northeast today. As the low lifts out, we will gradually enter more westerly and eventually northwesterly winds aloft today through Tuesday ushering in increasingly drier air. For today there should be just enough ascent and moisture for widely scattered showers to occur across the area. Showers have already developed closer to the coast and will gradually spread inland this afternoon. Overall, storms should not be robust enough to pose much of any hazard other than a nuisance if it happens to rain on you. By Tuesday, the upper low will have moved into a more favorable location for drier air finally clearing things out across the area. Throughout this period, surface winds should remain southerly allowing for a high risk of rip currents to continue. BB-8

Wednesday Through Sunday...

The pattern finally changes for the middle to latter part of the week as an upper-level ridge builds over the Gulf. This, along with high pressure at the surface, will give way to much drier and warmer conditions. Highs especially by Thursday and Friday will top out in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland. Factoring in upper 60 to low 70 dewpoints, heat indices will climb into the upper 90s across much of the area. Overnight temperatures will also be quite warm, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Modeled guidance begins to diverge a bit on their solutions for this upcoming weekend as the upper ridge flattens due to a passing upper trough to our north. Looking at the latest deterministic runs, the GFS and the Canadian suggest that the ridge is a bit stronger and maintains its hold over the local area. This would allow for the bulk of passing shortwave energy to remain to the north of the area, keeping us in the dry and very warm pattern. The Euro on the other hand flattens the ridge enough to allow for a few shortwaves to pass overhead during the weekend, bringing higher rain chances back into the forecast.
Interestingly enough, looking at ensemble cluster analysis, a vast majority of ensembles (~60-70% of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members)
support the Euro solution of a stronger trough/flattened ridge.
This solution would lead to higher rainfall chances, mainly for areas away from the immediate coast. Another smaller ensemble cluster (~10-15% of ensembles) is more of a glancing blow, but still highlights rainfall for our far interior counties. The remaining cluster follows the drier solution. With the high amount of ensemble support, the forecast shows an increase in rain chances for the weekend (mainly during the afternoon hours). Best coverage will be over inland counties as the proximity of the upper ridge should limit convective coverage over our coastal counties. /96
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