Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lynn Haven, FL

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

The upper level cutoff low will be lifting north through the day Tuesday, heading towards the Tennessee Valley. This low was responsible for all the rain we had this past weekend. With it exiting the area, upper level ridging will fill in to replace it.
The ridging will be slow to build, so there may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, however these will be more diurnally and sea breeze driven; as we will have southwesterly winds at the surface. PoPs for Tuesday range from 25-50% with higher chances along I-10 and I-75 corridors. On Wednesday, drier air will begin filtering in as we will have northwest winds aloft.
This will reduce our rain chances to less than 20%. Temperatures for the short term will have afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Upper level ridging will be building Thursday and continue into the weekend. The upper level ridge along with a surface high will inhibit convection causing PoPs to be zero, and allow for temperatures to soar into the mid and (possibly) upper 90s.
Southerly flow will be expected at the surface, keeping dew points elevated in the upper 60s and low 70s. This will lead to heat indices around 100 degrees for this weekend. There is a minimal chance for showers/thunderstorms to return over the weekend for our northern tier counties as storms develop along the perimeter of the ridge. Our chances will depend on whether the ridge will flatten or traverse south into our region.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Occasional rounds of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon, although activity will be less widespread than yesterday. Otherwise, pockets of MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning are expected lift to VFR by this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop today as an upper level trough and a surface low moves over the region. Southwest winds and seas of 3-5 feet are expected today; however the trend should begin to calm down as we head into midweek as high pressure begins to move and settle over the region.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Given the recent widespread rainfall, there are minimal fire weather concerns for the next few days other than high dispersions.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Several inches of rain has fallen over the past few days. There is still a chance for showers and thunderstorms today (Monday)
however, there is a less chance that these storms will produce heavy rainfall. There is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for our SE Alabama counties, portions of SW Georgia, and the FL Southeast Big Bend. There is a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Dixie County today. Flash flooding will remain the main concern in areas that have already received several inches of rainfall. River rises are possible however, they have been running real low due to antecedent conditions and are not expected to go into Minor Flood stage. Rises into Action stage may be possible over the next few days for the Choctawhatchee and maybe as far north along the Kinchafoonee and Flint rivers.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 83 65 83 64 / 50 10 40 0 Panama City 79 68 80 70 / 50 30 20 0 Dothan 81 62 81 64 / 70 30 30 0 Albany 84 63 82 64 / 60 10 40 10 Valdosta 84 64 83 64 / 60 10 40 0 Cross City 82 65 82 65 / 70 10 40 0 Apalachicola 79 70 80 70 / 40 30 20 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735.