Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jacksonville Beach, FL

UPDATE
Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected to continue this evening, fading by around midnight. Then, mainly dry after midnight with lows in the mid 70s. Main updates were to refine the rain/POP forecast for this evening. Also, made some slight adjustments for rain chances on Thursday, with somewhat better rain chances than what we had today. Best convective potential Thursday afternoon looks to be between I-75 and I-95 over northeast FL.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights During This Period:

-Daily bouts of showers and storms

Northwesterly flow will cap convective potential slightly Thursday and possibly into Friday as well, especially the further north and west you go with the continental influence. That said, there is still more than sufficient moisture in the lower levels as PWATs will hover around the 1.9 to 2 inch range, and therefore expecting more of a typical sea breeze driven convective pattern throughout the short term. One main factor that suspect is causing more discrepancy amongst model guidance is the forming of a broad upper low over the Florida peninsula and/or eastern Gulf on Thursday/Friday, in which the placement and evolution will play a role in convective coverage as well as the outlook for the long term (more on that below). All in all, expecting highest tropical moisture transport on the east side of the upper low across the Florida peninsula to result in highest PoPs across northeast FL, especially towards the nearly pinned Atlantic breeze on both Thursday and Friday. Highs will overall trend close to normal for the short term, in the low to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ...Main Highlights During This Period:

- Daily bouts of showers and storms - Potential heat advisory conditions this weekend and into next week

Overall a more active convective pattern is looking increasingly likely this weekend and potentially into early next week, as both an upper level low and developing surface troughiness are expected to impact the region. The National Hurricane Center has placed the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida Peninsula in a 20% chance of tropical development with this developing troughiness and upper level energy sometime this weekend or early next week, before lifting generally northeastward along an approaching frontal boundary. This potential will be monitored closely over the coming days as details become more clear. Regardless, the main take home points will be the potential for more enhanced shower/t'storm activity and/or heavy rainfall beginning this weekend, and secondly as a seasonal reminder to maintain tropical readiness.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
VFR conditions continue to prevail but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through about 03z. Will continue to highlight the potential for this convection in the 00z TAFs. Expecting another chance for showers and thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon, with the highest chances (40-60 percent)
probably for the northeast FL TAFs than for SSI. For surface winds, southeast winds expected for SSI, CRG, and SGJ first couple of hours then turns southwest. Otherwise, light westerly are forecast tonight. After 14z Thursday, west to northwest winds 5-10 kt, but sea breeze wind shift expected for SSI, CRG, and SGJ between 17z and 20z.

MARINE

Weak high pressure centered over south Florida will shift slowly westward across the Gulf through Friday, creating a west to northwest flow across our local waters, with an afternoon sea breeze developing each day through Saturday. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a low chance, around 20 percent, for tropical cyclone development later this weekend into early next week which could bring scattered to numerous thunderstorms to our local waters as southwest winds begin to prevail.

Rip Currents:

Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights will continue to keep the rip current risk low at area beaches during the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER
- Patchy High Dispersions Over Inland Northeast Fl Today

Northwesterly flow in the lower levels will drop chances for showers and t'storms slightly today and Thursday, especially the further north and west you go away from sea breeze influences. The flow will be strong enough for some patchy high dispersions inland over north central Florida today, especially over areas like the Ocala National Forest. These dispersions will drop off rather quickly into interior southeast GA. Shower and t'storm chances generally increase Friday and into the weekend with a more active pattern emerging. This is partially due to potential tropical development in the northeast Gulf that we are currently monitoring, in which more details will be ironed out over the coming days. No concerns with minRH through the rest of the week with sufficient low level moisture.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not expected for the next several nights. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible in and near thunderstorms, with occasional outflow boundaries capable of producing sudden wind shifts well away from ongoing convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 90 74 93 / 20 30 20 40 SSI 77 92 77 93 / 20 30 10 10 JAX 75 92 75 94 / 30 40 30 40 SGJ 75 92 76 93 / 20 40 20 40 GNV 74 92 73 93 / 20 50 30 70 OCF 74 92 75 92 / 20 50 30 80

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.