PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

An upper trof over the eastern states weakens a bit during the period, and a series of shortwaves are anticipated to mainly progress across the marine area as well. A stalled frontal boundary currently extending from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to the northern Florida peninsula looks to remain nearly in place through Sunday night. Meanwhile, another weak frontal boundary near the northern portion of the forecast area slowly moves through the remainder of the area to near the coast overnight and either dissipates or stalls near the coast.
Adding to these surface features is a modest inverted surface trof which develops over the forecast area on Sunday, apparently in response to the series of shortwaves, then weakens Sunday night.
The best deep layer moisture will be near the coast tapering to drier air further inland. For tonight through Sunday night, have generally gone with slight chance to chance pops for the coastal counties where the best deep layer moisture will be present along with the proximity of the frontal boundaries and the series of shortwaves. Dry conditions are expected over most interior areas.
Lows tonight mostly range from around 60/lower 60s well inland to around 70 at the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 80s, the lows Sunday night will be in the lower to mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the immediate coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday night. /29

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

The extended period starts off a bit drier Sunday night into Monday, with rain chances steadily increasing as we go from early to mid week. Upper troughing ejects northeast out of the U.S.
during the early part of the week before upper ridging tries to build in across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A weak shortwave towards the middle part of the week pushes east into the southern Plains states which will act to pull a potential tropical system northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a stalled boundary remains across the coastal areas of the forecast area before potentially lifting onshore by mid week.

Generally drier weather prevails to start the period with only isolated to locally scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon, best chances nearer the coast. This remains the story heading into Tuesday before increasing rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.
There remains uncertainty in regards to the evolution of a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico, but general model consensus keeps this well to the west of the forecast area nearer the Texas and western Louisiana coast. Despite this, a plume of tropical moisture characterized by 2 to 2.5" PWATs will advect northward finally lifting the aforementioned boundary north across the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday. This should help to focus convection in the vicinity of the boundary and ultimately increase rain chances with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. Any anticipated impacts at this point would be an increase in rain chances, increased rip current risk and elevated surf values. At this time, we're only expecting a beneficial rainfall from any storms during the period, but can't rule out an isolated threat for flash flooding as we near the end of the week, particularly in any urban or poor drainage areas.

After a brief return to warmer temperatures Monday featuring middle 80's for highs, we cool back down Tuesday through Thursday into middle to upper 70's for highs thanks to increased cloud cover and rain chances. After this, we start to warm back up Friday into Saturday with highs in the middle to upper 80's. Lows generally remain steady state in the middle to upper 60's inland and upper 60's to lower 70's nearer the coast. A Low risk of rip currents Sunday night becomes a Moderate risk of rip currents Monday. This eventually becomes a High risk of rip currents for Wednesday and likely continuing into Thursday as well. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Occasional small craft exercise caution conditions are possible over the open Gulf waters mainly from late Monday night into Tuesday morning. No other impacts are expected other than higher winds and seas near storms. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 67 86 69 83 70 81 70 80 / 20 20 20 50 40 60 60 80 Pensacola 71 85 71 82 72 81 73 81 / 40 50 50 60 50 60 60 80 Destin 72 84 72 84 73 85 74 83 / 40 60 60 60 40 60 60 80 Evergreen 64 87 66 85 66 85 67 81 / 10 10 10 30 10 30 40 60 Waynesboro 60 85 61 86 66 82 67 79 / 0 0 0 20 10 30 40 60 Camden 61 84 64 84 66 82 66 78 / 0 0 10 10 10 20 30 50 Crestview 67 86 67 83 68 84 69 81 / 30 50 40 50 30 50 50 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.