Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oriole Beach, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 231130 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 630 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Overall, not much going on today and Saturday as mainly zonal flow today becomes more northwesterly tomorrow. Dry conditions will persist today as upper ridging builds over the central US.
However despite drier northwesterly flow aloft, tis the season where we really can't get away from the moisture. With a series of subtle shortwaves expected to move through the northwesterly flow, rain chances will likely return on Saturday. Scattered storms will be possible during the afternoon on Saturday with the best chances along and north of highway 84. We will need to keep a close eye as a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) will approach from the northwest ahead of the shortwave. The question is does this complex make it intact to our area as it butts up against the strengthening ridge. Models tend to struggle with these complexes and their outflow so it would be something to watch. If it does make it to our area then some damaging winds may be possible and a larger portion of the area will likely see rain. Nonetheless, pop up storms will be possible and the overall profile would support the potential for some damaging wind gusts and maybe some hail mixed in with the strongest of storms.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side with highs in the 90s and lows increasing back into the upper 60s to low 70s. BB-8

Sunday through Thursday...

A typical summer diurnal pattern unfolds through the period as numerous mini-shortwaves and impulses pass over our region in a mid/upper level pattern that fluctuates from a southwesterly to at times nearly zonal flow. Plenty of moisture will be available for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, but appears to maximize on Tuesday when precipitable waters values reach around 2.1 inches and surface boundary enters into and stalls across our area.
The timing of the highest rain chance is not set in stone, so adjustments will likely be needed. The highest rainfall totals over the five day period will occur northwest of I-65 where widespread amounts from 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is forecast. Locally higher amounts up to 4 inches is possible. At this time it is still too early to determine if there could be any local severe impacts.

High temperatures Sunday should reach the middle 90s, with apparent temperatures (heat indices) in upper 90s to lower 100s. Highs will then range from the middle 80s to the lower 90s through Thursday.
Low temperatures between 69 to 76 degrees Sunday and Monday nights will cool slightly Tuesday and Wednesday nights due to the higher rain chances. /22
Show more