Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neptune Beach, FL

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Light rain will continue to move through area this afternoon, with a round of more moderate showers approaching far inland southeast Georgia closer to after sunset. Pre-frontal westerly winds will remain elevated through the evening as well.

Showers will linger after midnight, mainly near the northeast Florida coast, gradually moving southward through the night as the front sweeps through the area. Winds will calm just enough to allow for patchy inland fog to develop as decent moisture remains in place, although it will likely be a bit too much breeze for any dense fog concerns. Low temperatures in southeast Georgia will generally be in the mid to upper 40s, with lows in the 50s for northeast Florida.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Behind an overnight cold front passage, a coastal trough develops which will allow winds to shift to a more northeasterly flow during the forecast period. Relatively cooler temperatures develop for portions of SE GA and coastal locations behind the front and with the influence of cooler marine air being brought in with the northeasterly flow. But dry conditions are expected to develop once again over portions of the local area on Thursday and Friday.

With a shift to a more north-northeast flow, cooler temperatures along the coast and over inland SE GA locations. Daytime highs in the 60s over inland SE GA north of Waycross and coastal locations of SE GA and NE FL. Elsewhere, the lower to mid 70s over Suwannee Valley Region in NE FL/SE GA and north central FL counties. A couple isolated showers may be possible over the far southern areas with the daytime heating the afternoon to evening hours along the front and coastal trough. Clear to partly cloudy skies during the overnight hours will allow for Lows to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s over SE GA locations, relatively warmer Lows over NE FL in the mid 40s to lower 50s as clouds will have a bit more cloud cover.

Friday, northeasterly flow continues allowing for a similar temperature spread across the area. Highs in the 60s locations north of Waycross and along the coast, while the rest of the area will be in the lower to mid 70s. Isolated rain chances will remain along southern coastal locations in Flagler and over the southern local waters. Overnight Lows will be in the 40s for most of the area, aside from coastal locations and along north central FL which will see Lows in the lower 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A Sfc low is expected to move towards the southeast CONUS as high pressure over the eastern seaboard pushes into the Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. As the Low pushes east, PWATs will steadily increase as southwesterly flow will bring Gulf moisture into the area.
There still remains a spread in the timing and location of the Low's path with the Euro still showing a more northern path compared to the GFS), but it should be mentioned that the GFS has shifted its track a bit north. Regardless, widespread showers are expected to move in by Sunday as an associated cold front nears the local area and pushing offshore as the front pushes through and offshore. The potential for thunderstorms remains, but strong/severe remains in questions as the timing of the front's passage still remains.
Current estimates of total rainfall range from 0.5" to 1.5" from this upcoming weekend's rain event night, with the higher amounts along SE GA and the Suwannee Valley region in NE FL.

Behind the front, high pressure builds into the region at the start of the upcoming week. Temperatures will be near to above normal for the weekend and likely begin to cool to fall to near normal next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Frontal boundary still on track to sag southward into SE GA this evening and into NE FL after midnight. Have included TEMPO for MVFR SHRA activity at SSI and VCSH for JAX/CRG/VQQ but will remain rain free at GNV/SGJ. Main impact at terminals tonight will be development of low stratus and fog by the 02Z time frame at GNV and 04-06Z time frame at other TAF sites with MVFR CIGS by 04-06Z and IFR CIGS by 06-08Z at NE FL TAF sites. LIFR CIGS are expected at GNV by 04-06Z along with the chance for dense fog around 1/4SM in the 08- 12Z time frame. While SSI will remain mostly VFR through the early morning hours on Thursday, the NE FL TAF sites will be slow to improve with VFR in the 13-14Z time frame for JAX/CRG/VQQ, while VFR conds will only improve in the 14-16Z time frame at GNV/SGJ.

MARINE
High pressure will shift southeast of the region today as a cold front approaches from the northwest with isolated to scattered showers and increasing west to southwest winds to exercise caution levels over the offshore waters. The front will move through the waters this evening with a line of showers pushing through the Georgia waters with less showers over the Northeast Florida waters and winds shifting northwesterly and then northerly after midnight.
The front will stall and linger over south Florida Thursday with northeast winds over local waters as high pressure builds north of the region. The front will morph into a lifting warm front late Friday into Saturday as the high weakens and shifts more to the northeast of the waters. Rain chances increase this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west late Saturday into Sunday with winds increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today as easterly swells persist with periods of up to 11-13 seconds producing surf/breakers into the 3-4 ft range at local beaches. Easterly swells will diminish Thursday, but a moderate risk of rip currents expected due to breezy onshore north northeast winds.

FIRE WEATHER
- Patchy High Dispersions This Afternoon

A shift to northeasterly winds after the passage of a cold front during the overnight hours into Thursday as high pressure dips a bit into the area. Lingering showers will gradually to dissipate during the overnight hours and push southward by Thursday morning as the front moves through. Dry conditions develop by Thursday afternoon, with RH values near critical levels in the mid 20s across southeast Georgia and the 30s across the Suwannee Valley Region in northeast Florida. Poor to Fair dispersions develop across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region in Northeast Florida on Thursday, and then along the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA and coastal locations on Friday.

The high pressure will remain north of the region through the end of the week before another stronger cold front approaches late this weekend, with needed rainfall arriving on Sunday/Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible near I- 75 Tonight, with localized denser fog occurring in proximity with wildfire smoke.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 49 68 37 67 / 30 10 10 0 SSI 51 58 46 60 / 50 10 10 0 JAX 54 65 43 68 / 30 10 10 10 SGJ 55 65 49 68 / 10 10 10 10 GNV 56 73 45 74 / 10 10 10 10 OCF 56 74 47 75 / 10 20 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.