Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Prairieville, LA

SHORT TERM
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The upper low has now shifted west over the Red River valley in north TX/southern OK. It will eventually sink into west TX over the next few days. The 850mb low is now near the Arklamiss area and is evidently shearing the environment between them in sat imagery. This will set up two areas of heavy rainfall possibilities, neither of which will be here. One of these will be over south TX and the other a few hundred miles all around Memphis. The 850 low moves north after today bringing some relief to that area as well. We will be between these two with a ridge building from the gulf to Amarillo TX via New Orleans. We can now look to see if this pattern continues, so enter stage right a TUTT low currently over western Cuba. Normally we would look to the gulf for deep moisture, but it does usher in dry air as well in cycles. This will be one of those times. The TUTT low will eventually move into the eastern gulf and will place itself over the center of the 850mb high. This type of pattern is the direct opposite of a rainmaker and will set up a very dry pattern but will also transfer us into a much warmer scenario with temps moving into the mid 90s then even higher as we tack on about a degree a day as we move into the weekend. There will still be a storm or two each day through the week, there just won't be high chances and definitely not widespread like they have been lately.
Those that do occur, will still have the capability of being strong/severe as they will not have many other cells to compete with for energy. The TUTT low and mid/low level high will lock storms north and east of where the two are centered. This should keep the water works over the SE CONUS and eastern gulf by the end of this week. This should also cause a moderate precip gradient to exist between here and Florida by the end of the week.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Extended forecast continues to advertise hot and mostly dry conditions. Medium range models still have some minor disagreements in the details and that could have some implications on temps but overall the forecast remains mostly unchanged and confidence is growing that we will finally see our first real shot of heat this Summer.

Ridge builds down to the southeast over the southeastern CONUS and into the Atlantic but will have enough of an influence to keep convection down to a minimum this weekend. But this will also lead to LL temps warming with h925 temps up to around 25/26 C leading to highs in the mid 90s maybe even trying to top out into the upper 90s. That said there may be just enough moisture and mesoscale aspects like the sea/lake breeze to get a few isolated storms to pop over the northeast each afternoon but those will be few in number.

Heading into next week we will see the L/W trough take shape over the east coast and drop into the northeastern Gulf. This could start to slide into our area some. At the same time the large ridge over the Rockies and just north of the 4 corners will slide a little to the east while the axis extends to the southeast towards the northwestern Gulf and into the Lower MS Valley. The ridging will try to impinge enough into the area to keep the convection potential down while also allowing the heat to build a little more\. LL temps may warm another degree which should place the entire area firmly into the mid 90s. NBM is starting to really hammer upper 90s for locations east of I-55 and along I-12 in SELA and across coastal MS. I do have a little of a problem with that though as we typically need a synoptically driven sfc wind out of the north or northeast to get coastal Ms to get that hot.
Synoptically high pressure will be dominating the region and thus winds will be highly influenced by diurnal fluctuations which will allow the seabreeze to likely push through GPT and PQL by midday and thus probably keeping those sites from reaching the upper 90s.
That said this weekend and into next week it is beginning to look highly likely that some heat products will be needed for portions of the CWA /CAB/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR will be the rule for this taf cycle at all terminals. HUM will be the only site with high enough precip chances to show any lowering of flight restrictions which will be timed.

MARINE
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and direction will vary today then become more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf through the week. The number of storms will be lower through the remainder of the week, but any that do develop will cause wind direction and speed to become erratic and strong.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.