Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warrington, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 222100 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 400 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

New Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Now Through Friday Night...

Northwest zonal upper flow is expected into Saturday, with a shortwave moving over the region Friday into Friday night. A surface ridge organizes over the Gulf, restoring onshore flow, albeit weak, over the northern Gulf coast. Moisture influx inland is best over the Lower Mississippi River and west. Enough moisture works its way inland over the Southeast, though, for precipitable h20 values over the forecast area to rise a bit (from 0.80" to around 1.1"), but the Near Term remains dry.

Temperatures continue the above seasonal norms trend, with upper 80s to low 90s expected this afternoon and again Friday. The uptick in moisture levels will bring an increase in Heat Indices, to the 90-95 degree range for Friday. The increase in moisture levels will decrease radiational cooling overnight, with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s inland tonight, mid to upper 60s Friday night. Along the coast, upper 60s to around 70 are expected tonight, around 70 to low 70s Friday night.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into Saturday. /16

Saturday Through Wednesday...

The pattern turns more unsettled as we roll into the weekend and definitely by the early part of next week.

Northwesterly to west-northwesterly flow aloft will generally persist through the weekend as a trough pivots off the East Coast and ridging builds to our west. This pattern will allow for a parade of subtle shortwaves to slide across the region over the weekend.
These subtle features will spark scattered showers and storms, but there still remains some uncertainty with the timing and amplitude of these shortwaves. The best chance for rain will be generally northwest of the I-65 corridor in the afternoon hours throughout the weekend. That said, there continues to be a signal for a cluster of storms (potentially an MCS) to dive into Deep South from the northwest in the afternoon on Saturday, making it into our area by Saturday evening. Most of the guidance washes this feature out quickly, but it's something we'll need to keep our eye on in the upcoming model runs. Gusty winds would be the main concern *if* this features makes it into our area.

Rain chances increase in the early part of next week as a trough quickly pivots across the central portion of the CONUS and flow aloft turns southwesterly. Deep onshore flow is expected on Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Several rounds of showers and storms will be expected next week with Tuesday having the highest rain chances (for now, but note that this may change again) as the front stalls over the area.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through Memorial Day.
Our rip current MOS probabilities indicate that the risk will begin to increase Monday night into Tuesday. 07/mb
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