Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mandeville, LA
October 2, 2023 10:24 PM CDT (03:24 UTC)
Sunrise 6:51AM Sunset 6:44PM Moonrise 8:00PM Moonset 9:23AM
GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 958 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ500 958 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
gusty easterly winds in excess of 20 to 25 knots will continue into Tuesday, which will maintain hazardous seas for small craft of 4 to 7 feet. Some lulls in these winds with winds closer to 15 knots will be possible, but these conditions will generally persist through Tuesday. By midweek, winds will gradually decrease ahead of a pattern change and approaching cold front which is expected to arrive late in the week. An increase in winds to 15 to 20 knots is expected behind the front on Saturday.
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
gusty easterly winds in excess of 20 to 25 knots will continue into Tuesday, which will maintain hazardous seas for small craft of 4 to 7 feet. Some lulls in these winds with winds closer to 15 knots will be possible, but these conditions will generally persist through Tuesday. By midweek, winds will gradually decrease ahead of a pattern change and approaching cold front which is expected to arrive late in the week. An increase in winds to 15 to 20 knots is expected behind the front on Saturday.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KLIX 022302 AAA AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 602 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
A persistent long wave ridge axis will remain centered over the area through Wednesday, and this will keep a dry and stable airmass in place across the entire forecast area. The result of this will be a continuation of warmer than average afternoon highs, near average overnight lows, and limited cloud development.
Highs will easily warm into the low to mid 90s over inland areas, but a persistent onshore wind along the coast will lead to more moderate highs in the upper 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Overall, have stuck with NBM 75th percentile values for daytime highs as these have been verifying best the past couple of days.
For overnight lows, deterministic NBM values were used.
The persistent easterly wind of 10 to 15 mph will combine with a spring tide cycle to produce some minor coastal flooding issues on east facing shores during high tide tonight through Wednesday night. High tide is expected to occur around or shortly after midnight each night. At most, water could rise to around a foot above ground level in the most vulnerable coastal locations.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Picking up on Thursday, no major changes here locally as we remain high and dry and on the warm side, averaging around 4-7 degrees above normal. Main story will be the ridge breaking down over the northern Gulf in response to a deamplifying longwave trough axis pulling east over the Rockies, as the main impulse/energy ejects fast into southern Canada. What this in turn will do is send a cold front SE, draping into the central US, but looses upper-air support along progressive SW flow aloft becomes parallel to frontal orientation. Some frontogenetic characteristics and associated lift along with remnant weak PVA over the four corners region will ignite convection to our northwest, but what it will do is steadily pump mid/upper-level moisture NE across the MS valley region leading to a slow increase in cloud cover from the west. Hedged close to NBM deterministic/50pct blend which keeps some areas topping out in the upper 80's/low 90's but an overall quiet day albeit some clouds building in during the day and overnight hours.
It's from here where things become a bit more interesting, as a well- defined kicker shortwave dives SE from SW Canada into the northern US, upstream of the then broad longwave trough axis causing it to deepen into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. In conjunction, much stronger western US ridging will take shape revealing a much higher amplitude mid/upper-level pattern across the US. What's this mean? Strengthening surface high pressure within intense upstream convergence (between the trough and ridge) will aid in extra "push" for the front to dive through the area late week/weekend.
Unfortunately, not seeing strong indications of widespread rain with this front regardless of the introduction in strengthening frontal forcing. Winds out ahead of the front remain generally calm to slightly out of the east leading to limited low-level convergence, with a narrow corridor of enhanced PW along/slightly ahead of the front with very little E/W residence or fetch of deeper moisture return. Means that we will not see that much in the way of widespread or heavy rain with the front as it passes. Deterministic runs pick this up by showing how the front will struggle at squeezing hour a few showers, and did keep a general 15-25% PoP going but be aware, not everyone will see rain at all when this front passes which I know is needed. Some indications of elevated CAPE will best be for areas along/south of I-10/12 and kept a mention of TS in these regions, but will generally see a few passing showers or two at times. Timing on the frontal speed is somewhat indifferent between the main GFS/ECMWF solutions - mostly in how sharp/deep the trough can become over the Great Lakes which will depend on the forward speed/strength of associated CAA. Did hedge towards the GFS which reveals a bit more of an amplified trough over the Great Lakes, stronger upstream high which pushes the front through the area during the day on Friday. As CAA persist Friday night into Saturday, we will be presented with MUCH more noticeably drier, cooler air during the day with a slow clearing, but CAA persists with breezy north winds but will begin to shut down following decoupling later Saturday evening.
As for low temps, the high starts to settle in during the day on Sunday with Sunday night into Monday likely being coolest morning so far this season (and coolest morning since mid April!). Hedged towards the 25th percentile to present a more meteorological plausible idea of maximized radiational cooling processes, which brings upper 40's into the picture for SW MS draining into the Florida Parishes, including Pearl River and Pascagoula Drainages.
Otherwise, highs maintain generally at or slightly below normal on Sunday (did I type below normal? Haven't typed that in ages) but as a reminder, the sun angle is still high enough to sometimes fool us with clear skies a day or two after a front - so will monitor that especially as CAA will have been broken down by then. But we're talking low 80's instead of mid to upper 70's and regardless - it'll be a very nice weekend for a change so let's be positive and look forward to something we all can use! Just gotta get more rain next, we'll be working on that ;) KLG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
VFR conditions expected for all terminals thought this cycle.
Winds will be light to moderate generally out of an easterly direction. Coastal terminals may experience slightly higher winds (generally less than 20kts). (Frye)
MARINE
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
A decent pressure gradient between a strong surface high to the north and a broad area of low pressure in the southern Gulf will keep winds elevated over the coastal waters through at least tomorrow afternoon. The highest winds will be over the open Gulf waters where winds near 20 knots and seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected tonight into tomorrow. Given these conditions, a small craft advisory will remain in effect through tomorrow afternoon.
Closer to the coast, in the sounds and tidal lakes, easterly winds of between 15 and 20 knots can be expected through tomorrow afternoon. The pressure gradient over the waters will begin to weaken on Wednesday and Thursday as the high to the north loses strength, and this will allow winds to fall to between 10 and 15 knots. Friday will see a cold front push through the waters, and a shift in winds to the north is expected to take hold by Friday night. As cooler and drier air advects over the warmer waters, stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface. This will result in winds of 15 to 20 knots developing over the waters from Friday night through Sunday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 93 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 67 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 68 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 74 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 70 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 67 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ069-070-076- 078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ550-552-555- 557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ552-555-557- 570-572-575-577.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 602 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
A persistent long wave ridge axis will remain centered over the area through Wednesday, and this will keep a dry and stable airmass in place across the entire forecast area. The result of this will be a continuation of warmer than average afternoon highs, near average overnight lows, and limited cloud development.
Highs will easily warm into the low to mid 90s over inland areas, but a persistent onshore wind along the coast will lead to more moderate highs in the upper 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Overall, have stuck with NBM 75th percentile values for daytime highs as these have been verifying best the past couple of days.
For overnight lows, deterministic NBM values were used.
The persistent easterly wind of 10 to 15 mph will combine with a spring tide cycle to produce some minor coastal flooding issues on east facing shores during high tide tonight through Wednesday night. High tide is expected to occur around or shortly after midnight each night. At most, water could rise to around a foot above ground level in the most vulnerable coastal locations.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Picking up on Thursday, no major changes here locally as we remain high and dry and on the warm side, averaging around 4-7 degrees above normal. Main story will be the ridge breaking down over the northern Gulf in response to a deamplifying longwave trough axis pulling east over the Rockies, as the main impulse/energy ejects fast into southern Canada. What this in turn will do is send a cold front SE, draping into the central US, but looses upper-air support along progressive SW flow aloft becomes parallel to frontal orientation. Some frontogenetic characteristics and associated lift along with remnant weak PVA over the four corners region will ignite convection to our northwest, but what it will do is steadily pump mid/upper-level moisture NE across the MS valley region leading to a slow increase in cloud cover from the west. Hedged close to NBM deterministic/50pct blend which keeps some areas topping out in the upper 80's/low 90's but an overall quiet day albeit some clouds building in during the day and overnight hours.
It's from here where things become a bit more interesting, as a well- defined kicker shortwave dives SE from SW Canada into the northern US, upstream of the then broad longwave trough axis causing it to deepen into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. In conjunction, much stronger western US ridging will take shape revealing a much higher amplitude mid/upper-level pattern across the US. What's this mean? Strengthening surface high pressure within intense upstream convergence (between the trough and ridge) will aid in extra "push" for the front to dive through the area late week/weekend.
Unfortunately, not seeing strong indications of widespread rain with this front regardless of the introduction in strengthening frontal forcing. Winds out ahead of the front remain generally calm to slightly out of the east leading to limited low-level convergence, with a narrow corridor of enhanced PW along/slightly ahead of the front with very little E/W residence or fetch of deeper moisture return. Means that we will not see that much in the way of widespread or heavy rain with the front as it passes. Deterministic runs pick this up by showing how the front will struggle at squeezing hour a few showers, and did keep a general 15-25% PoP going but be aware, not everyone will see rain at all when this front passes which I know is needed. Some indications of elevated CAPE will best be for areas along/south of I-10/12 and kept a mention of TS in these regions, but will generally see a few passing showers or two at times. Timing on the frontal speed is somewhat indifferent between the main GFS/ECMWF solutions - mostly in how sharp/deep the trough can become over the Great Lakes which will depend on the forward speed/strength of associated CAA. Did hedge towards the GFS which reveals a bit more of an amplified trough over the Great Lakes, stronger upstream high which pushes the front through the area during the day on Friday. As CAA persist Friday night into Saturday, we will be presented with MUCH more noticeably drier, cooler air during the day with a slow clearing, but CAA persists with breezy north winds but will begin to shut down following decoupling later Saturday evening.
As for low temps, the high starts to settle in during the day on Sunday with Sunday night into Monday likely being coolest morning so far this season (and coolest morning since mid April!). Hedged towards the 25th percentile to present a more meteorological plausible idea of maximized radiational cooling processes, which brings upper 40's into the picture for SW MS draining into the Florida Parishes, including Pearl River and Pascagoula Drainages.
Otherwise, highs maintain generally at or slightly below normal on Sunday (did I type below normal? Haven't typed that in ages) but as a reminder, the sun angle is still high enough to sometimes fool us with clear skies a day or two after a front - so will monitor that especially as CAA will have been broken down by then. But we're talking low 80's instead of mid to upper 70's and regardless - it'll be a very nice weekend for a change so let's be positive and look forward to something we all can use! Just gotta get more rain next, we'll be working on that ;) KLG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
VFR conditions expected for all terminals thought this cycle.
Winds will be light to moderate generally out of an easterly direction. Coastal terminals may experience slightly higher winds (generally less than 20kts). (Frye)
MARINE
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
A decent pressure gradient between a strong surface high to the north and a broad area of low pressure in the southern Gulf will keep winds elevated over the coastal waters through at least tomorrow afternoon. The highest winds will be over the open Gulf waters where winds near 20 knots and seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected tonight into tomorrow. Given these conditions, a small craft advisory will remain in effect through tomorrow afternoon.
Closer to the coast, in the sounds and tidal lakes, easterly winds of between 15 and 20 knots can be expected through tomorrow afternoon. The pressure gradient over the waters will begin to weaken on Wednesday and Thursday as the high to the north loses strength, and this will allow winds to fall to between 10 and 15 knots. Friday will see a cold front push through the waters, and a shift in winds to the north is expected to take hold by Friday night. As cooler and drier air advects over the warmer waters, stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface. This will result in winds of 15 to 20 knots developing over the waters from Friday night through Sunday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 93 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 67 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 68 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 74 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 70 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 67 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ069-070-076- 078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ550-552-555- 557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ552-555-557- 570-572-575-577.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA | 21 mi | 55 min | E 1G | 77°F | 82°F | 30.06 | ||
| CARL1 | 28 mi | 55 min | 84°F | |||||
| SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 39 mi | 55 min | E 11G | 79°F | 76°F | 30.06 | ||
| WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 40 mi | 55 min | ESE 7G | 81°F | 80°F | 30.07 | ||
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 41 mi | 55 min | 75°F | 82°F | 30.05 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KASD SLIDELL,LA | 14 sm | 31 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 30.05 | |
| KNEW LAKEFRONT,LA | 20 sm | 31 min | ESE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 70°F | 70% | 30.05 | |
| KHDC HAMMOND NORTHSHORE RGNL,LA | 22 sm | 29 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 64°F | 69% | 30.06 |
Wind History from ASD
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:47 AM CDT 1.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:21 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:53 PM CDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:44 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:47 AM CDT 1.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:21 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:53 PM CDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:44 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Long Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:07 AM CDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:20 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:26 PM CDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:58 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:07 AM CDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:20 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:26 PM CDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:58 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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