Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Breeze, FL
July 3, 2024 12:28 AM CDT (05:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:50 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:24 AM Moonset 6:14 PM |
GMZ634 Expires:202407031530;;345201 Fzus54 Kmob 030224 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 924 pm cdt Tue jul 2 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633-634-031530- perdido bay-pensacola bay system- 924 pm cdt Tue jul 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning.
Wednesday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday - West winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 924 pm cdt Tue jul 2 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633-634-031530- perdido bay-pensacola bay system- 924 pm cdt Tue jul 2 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 924 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly to southerly flow will continue over the marine area today. A mainly light southerly to southwesterly flow pattern is then expected through the remainder of the week.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 030502 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Mostly VFR conditions continue through the period. Local reductions to ceilings and visibilities will be possible around any thunderstorms on Wednesday. Another round of low ceilings may also develop again towards the end of the period over interior portions of the area. Light southeasterly winds prevail. /22
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An upper level ridge will remain in place over the Southeastern US through Wednesday while deep layer moisture remains abundant thanks to southerly flow at the surface. A few showers and storms have developed along the coast this afternoon where the seabreeze is interacting with a lingering surface boundary. This activity should dissipate through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures have been very hot today, and we've actually seen heat index values in a few localized areas briefly approaching near Heat Warning criteria. A Heat Advisory therefore remains in effect for all counties except for Butler and Crenshaw in Alabama (where dew points are keeping heat index values below 108 degrees) until 7pm. Warm and muggy conditions will carry into tonight with low temperatures ranging from the middle 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches.
Rain chances will begin to increase early Wednesday morning across our coastal and southern zones as a subtle impulse slides along the southern periphery of the lingering upper ridge. This impulse aloft combined with the weak boundary at the surface and increasing moisture will aid in the development of scattered to locally numerous showers and storms in the southern areas before spreading inland through the afternoon. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The increased rain chances and cloud cover will result in high temperatures being a couple of degrees cooler than today, with values expected to peak in the lower to middle 90s. However, it will still be very humid outside of any storms and heat index values are forecast to reach into the 105-110 degree range on Wednesday. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for this potential across the entire area from 10am until 7pm on Wednesday.
The rip current risk remains low in the near term. However, it will begin to ramp up later this week. /14
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An expansive upper-level ridge centered directly over the Deep South at the start of the period will linger in place through at least Friday. By Saturday, an upper trough swinging into the Great Lakes region will allow for the ridge to flatten and push to the east, likely becoming situated over the western Atlantic just off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina by Monday and Tuesday.
This will allow for upper flow to gain a more southwesterly component by Friday with a few embedded shortwave impulses moving within this flow.
Looking at the surface, high pressure ridges into the area from the east through most of the period, with the summertime land/seabreeze circulation likely being the dominant surface feature at play over the local area. This combined with daytime heating will maintain a diurnal shower and thunderstorm pattern, with scattered showers and storms expected across the area each day, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. The NBM wants to put likely pops (60-70 percent) over the area each day, but as the previous shift noted, not overly confident in that happening with the upper ridge sitting directly overhead. Plenty of moisture, instability, and forcing along the sea breeze should help to spark isolated showers and storms during the morning (mainly along coastal counties and over the marine zones), followed by scattered coverage in the afternoon (mainly over inland areas) each day. So, we have generally capped afternoon PoPs at 30-50 percent during the first half of the long term period due to the aforementioned uncertainty. By the weekend and into early next week, have ticked afternoon rain chances up slightly (up to 40-60 percent) as the ridge moves off to our east and weakens slightly, and with the weak impulses passing overhead within southwesterly flow aloft. As is the case with summertime pulse- type convection, although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop.
Outside of daily storm chances, it will be remain hot thanks to the close proximity of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s inland (some interior areas could even reach the upper 90s). With dew points likely to remain in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 105 to 112 degree range each day prior to the onset of thunderstorms. Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of Heat Advisories across much of the area. Lows will not provide much relief, further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area as temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper 70s, with low 80s along the coast. DS/12
BEACH Hazards...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for the 4th of July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This will be due to a long period (on the order of 15 seconds) swell shooting up through the Yucatan Channel and north across the Gulf as Hurricane Beryl move into the western Caribbean. In addition to the rip current risk, the swell will likely lead to increasing surf conditions, beach erosion problems, and wave run- up issues at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into Saturday. We still have plenty of time to watch the trends over the coming days, but next weekend has the potential to be very dangerous at the local beaches. Based on next weekend having lots of additional visitors around the holiday, we want to continue to stress this potential. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
No impacts are expected over the marine areas other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 76 92 76 94 76 94 76 94 / 10 50 10 50 20 60 30 60 Pensacola 77 90 77 92 78 93 78 93 / 20 50 10 50 20 60 30 70 Destin 80 90 80 91 80 91 80 91 / 20 50 20 50 20 50 30 60 Evergreen 74 94 74 95 74 93 73 94 / 10 50 10 50 30 60 30 50 Waynesboro 74 94 75 95 74 94 73 94 / 10 50 10 50 30 60 30 50 Camden 73 93 75 95 74 92 73 94 / 10 50 10 50 30 60 30 50 Crestview 74 94 74 95 75 96 74 95 / 10 50 10 50 20 60 30 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Mostly VFR conditions continue through the period. Local reductions to ceilings and visibilities will be possible around any thunderstorms on Wednesday. Another round of low ceilings may also develop again towards the end of the period over interior portions of the area. Light southeasterly winds prevail. /22
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An upper level ridge will remain in place over the Southeastern US through Wednesday while deep layer moisture remains abundant thanks to southerly flow at the surface. A few showers and storms have developed along the coast this afternoon where the seabreeze is interacting with a lingering surface boundary. This activity should dissipate through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures have been very hot today, and we've actually seen heat index values in a few localized areas briefly approaching near Heat Warning criteria. A Heat Advisory therefore remains in effect for all counties except for Butler and Crenshaw in Alabama (where dew points are keeping heat index values below 108 degrees) until 7pm. Warm and muggy conditions will carry into tonight with low temperatures ranging from the middle 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches.
Rain chances will begin to increase early Wednesday morning across our coastal and southern zones as a subtle impulse slides along the southern periphery of the lingering upper ridge. This impulse aloft combined with the weak boundary at the surface and increasing moisture will aid in the development of scattered to locally numerous showers and storms in the southern areas before spreading inland through the afternoon. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The increased rain chances and cloud cover will result in high temperatures being a couple of degrees cooler than today, with values expected to peak in the lower to middle 90s. However, it will still be very humid outside of any storms and heat index values are forecast to reach into the 105-110 degree range on Wednesday. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for this potential across the entire area from 10am until 7pm on Wednesday.
The rip current risk remains low in the near term. However, it will begin to ramp up later this week. /14
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An expansive upper-level ridge centered directly over the Deep South at the start of the period will linger in place through at least Friday. By Saturday, an upper trough swinging into the Great Lakes region will allow for the ridge to flatten and push to the east, likely becoming situated over the western Atlantic just off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina by Monday and Tuesday.
This will allow for upper flow to gain a more southwesterly component by Friday with a few embedded shortwave impulses moving within this flow.
Looking at the surface, high pressure ridges into the area from the east through most of the period, with the summertime land/seabreeze circulation likely being the dominant surface feature at play over the local area. This combined with daytime heating will maintain a diurnal shower and thunderstorm pattern, with scattered showers and storms expected across the area each day, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. The NBM wants to put likely pops (60-70 percent) over the area each day, but as the previous shift noted, not overly confident in that happening with the upper ridge sitting directly overhead. Plenty of moisture, instability, and forcing along the sea breeze should help to spark isolated showers and storms during the morning (mainly along coastal counties and over the marine zones), followed by scattered coverage in the afternoon (mainly over inland areas) each day. So, we have generally capped afternoon PoPs at 30-50 percent during the first half of the long term period due to the aforementioned uncertainty. By the weekend and into early next week, have ticked afternoon rain chances up slightly (up to 40-60 percent) as the ridge moves off to our east and weakens slightly, and with the weak impulses passing overhead within southwesterly flow aloft. As is the case with summertime pulse- type convection, although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop.
Outside of daily storm chances, it will be remain hot thanks to the close proximity of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s inland (some interior areas could even reach the upper 90s). With dew points likely to remain in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 105 to 112 degree range each day prior to the onset of thunderstorms. Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of Heat Advisories across much of the area. Lows will not provide much relief, further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area as temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper 70s, with low 80s along the coast. DS/12
BEACH Hazards...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for the 4th of July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This will be due to a long period (on the order of 15 seconds) swell shooting up through the Yucatan Channel and north across the Gulf as Hurricane Beryl move into the western Caribbean. In addition to the rip current risk, the swell will likely lead to increasing surf conditions, beach erosion problems, and wave run- up issues at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into Saturday. We still have plenty of time to watch the trends over the coming days, but next weekend has the potential to be very dangerous at the local beaches. Based on next weekend having lots of additional visitors around the holiday, we want to continue to stress this potential. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
No impacts are expected over the marine areas other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 76 92 76 94 76 94 76 94 / 10 50 10 50 20 60 30 60 Pensacola 77 90 77 92 78 93 78 93 / 20 50 10 50 20 60 30 70 Destin 80 90 80 91 80 91 80 91 / 20 50 20 50 20 50 30 60 Evergreen 74 94 74 95 74 93 73 94 / 10 50 10 50 30 60 30 50 Waynesboro 74 94 75 95 74 94 73 94 / 10 50 10 50 30 60 30 50 Camden 73 93 75 95 74 92 73 94 / 10 50 10 50 30 60 30 50 Crestview 74 94 74 95 75 96 74 95 / 10 50 10 50 20 60 30 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KNPA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNPA
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNPA
Wind History graph: NPA
(wind in knots)Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:38 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:10 AM CDT 1.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:07 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:54 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM CDT -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:38 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:10 AM CDT 1.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:07 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:54 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM CDT -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.3 |
Warrington
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:38 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:51 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM CDT 1.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:28 PM CDT -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:38 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:51 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM CDT 1.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:28 PM CDT -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
Northwest Florida,
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