PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 341 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The forecast area remains in a broad southwest flow aloft between a trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to the southeast.
Disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will continue to move through with precipitable water values between 2-2.2 inches.
Showers and storms will gradually end this evening with a few showers lingering near the coast tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop on Saturday with the highest coverage during the late morning and afternoon . A few of the stronger storms have the potential of creating gusty surface winds up the 40 mph. However, the main threat will remain heavy rain and the potential of localized flooding issues due to the slow movement of the thunderstorms.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

An upper low embedded in a mean upper trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley/eastern Southern Plains gets drawn north, then east by a developing upper low over the New England coast.
Upper level high pressure over the Southeast shifts southwest, as a mean upper trough develops over the eastern Conus as the upper lows merge. A weak surface ridge stretching west over the Southeast shifts south to over the Gulf by Tuesday. A moist airmass remains in place (precipitable h20 values around 2", above seasonal norms) due to the weak nature of the mean flow in the boundary layer, along with a daily seabreeze off the Gulf moving inland each afternoon.
With the high moisture levels, scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over land each day, lasting into the evening. From there, convection is expected to fire south of the coast as the bit of cooling over area waters destabilizes the boundary layer. As is normal this time of the year, a few strong to marginally severe storms are always possible, especially if a pocket of better instability is tapped into. Also, with the moist airmass, the thunderstorms will be efficient rainers, with locally heavy rains from slow moving storms creating ponding in poor drainage areas.

With the decrease in upper subsidence, high temperatures see a downturn. High temperatures in the 89 to 93 degree range Sunday drop into the 88 to 92 degree range Monday, with the cooler areas along the coast and northeastern quarter of the forecast area. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s well inland, upper 70s to near 80 are expected along the coast Saturday through Monday nights. With the moist airmass in place, Heat Indices topping out in the 100-108 degree range are possible Sunday and Monday. Will need to monitor for a Heat Advisory.

The weak nature of the surface ridge over the Gulf will help to keep swell hitting areas beaches weak. A Low Risk of rip currents is expected into the middle of the coming week is expected.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The upper trough over the eastern Conus deepens into mid week, but then begins to shift west as the upper ridge that has become centered over the builds east over the Southeast. Temperatures rise back to above seasonal norms, especially over areas along and west of the Tombigbee River, with this area closer to the advancing upper ridge. Moistures remain high, through the Extended. Highest PoPs remain over southeastern portions of the forecast area, with a daily seabreeze off the Gulf helping to start things firing along with less upper subsidence to suppress convection. Heat Indices rise to above seasonal norms in the Extended, with a Heat Advisory likely to be issued.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 74 90 75 92 75 91 75 92 / 40 70 20 80 40 70 30 70 Pensacola 77 89 77 90 77 90 77 90 / 30 70 30 80 40 70 40 70 Destin 79 90 79 91 79 89 79 89 / 30 60 40 90 40 70 50 70 Evergreen 73 91 72 92 73 90 73 91 / 30 70 20 90 40 70 20 70 Waynesboro 71 90 72 93 73 92 73 93 / 50 70 20 80 20 70 20 60 Camden 73 90 72 92 73 89 72 90 / 10 70 30 90 30 70 20 70 Crestview 73 93 73 92 73 91 73 92 / 30 70 20 90 40 70 30 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.