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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 934 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 934 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..Moderate southeasterly to southerly flow persists through today, potentially becoming strong well offshore tonight into Friday. Moderate onshore flow persists into the weekend before becoming offshore Sunday night into Monday in the wake of a cold front.

FXUS64 KMOB 301123 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 523 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area through tonight.
Broken to overcast high level clouds continue to build in across the area while surface winds gradually shift from easterly around 5kts this morning to southeasterly by late this afternoon into the evening hours at 5 to 10kts. MM/25

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

We go from cold and dry this morning/afternoon to a much warmer and wetter forecast tonight into Friday. Southwest to westerly flow aloft today becomes predominately southwesterly by Friday as a shortwave takes on a negative tilt and transits the ArkLaTex region.
Strong warm air advection will be ongoing ahead of this allowing for the area to quickly warm from highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's today to highs in the lower to middle 70's by Friday. Likewise, expect a substantial increase in humidity as upper 60's to lower 70's dewpoints work their way into the forecast area Friday. Morning temperatures Friday will be much warmer starting off in the upper 40's to lower 50's inland and middle to upper 50's nearer the coast.

Friday will likely be an interesting weather day across the area as a transient shortwave embedded within the broader southwesterly flow aloft sparks off convection across the forecast area. Strong warm air advection will give us adequate low level instability to work with for thunderstorms. Adequate shear for organized convection will be in place across the area (around 50kts effective shear) and models generally agree on about 500 to 1,000j/kg of MLCAPE developing Friday afternoon. It seems reasonable that some strong to severe storms are possible on Friday, which is highlighted by the SPC convective outlook with a marginal risk for severe weather over the entire forecast area. There's a fair amount of uncertainty in the convective evolution, but overall the potential for a strong to damaging wind gust and/or a tornado are possible Friday.

The other story will be potential for heavy rainfall late Thursday night into Friday. Overall rainfall totals through Friday afternoon will likely range from a half inch to an inch, with locally upwards of two inches of rain. Some CAMs are enthused about a corridor of heavy rainfall across coastal counties of AL into the FL panhandle as the surface marine warm front gets hung up just onshore. If this were to happen, the potential would exist for some flash flooding in our urban areas where storms would be able to train over the same locations. Lastly, a high risk of rip currents will go into effect for tonight through at least Friday night, likely lingering into the short and early extended periods. MM/25

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

The frontal boundary will stall over the region as it becomes parallel to the upper level southwesterly flow with rain chances remaining high through the period. Several waves of rain are possible on and off through the period. Some heavy rain is possible with the higher totals east of I-65 and along the coast.
An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out on Saturday and SPC has issued a marginal risk for severe storms. High temps on Saturday will be in the low 70s with lows in the low to mid 60s.
/13

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A strong shortwave will move across the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, carving out a large trough over the eastern states that will finally shove the stalled front eastward. This will push the higher precipitable water values eastward Sunday afternoon with a drier airmass filtering into the region through midweek as sfc high pressure builds across the southeast. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s and low 70s with low to mid 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow returns today, potentially becoming strong well offshore tonight into Friday. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect this evening for the 20 to 60 nautical mile marine waters and lasts through Friday morning.
Moderate onshore flow persists into the weekend before becoming offshore Sunday night into Monday in the wake of a cold front. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 65 58 76 64 74 63 71 51 / 10 70 90 80 90 70 50 30 Pensacola 67 60 76 66 73 66 71 55 / 10 60 90 80 90 70 70 30 Destin 66 59 75 67 75 67 74 57 / 10 40 90 90 90 70 70 40 Evergreen 60 49 74 62 74 61 71 48 / 0 60 90 80 100 70 60 30 Waynesboro 61 53 75 61 72 60 69 47 / 10 80 70 80 90 60 30 20 Camden 59 50 73 60 71 59 68 48 / 0 70 80 80 90 70 50 30 Crestview 61 50 75 63 74 62 72 50 / 0 50 90 90 90 70 70 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

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Fishing Bend
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Thu -- 12:26 AM CST     1.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:05 PM CST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, Tide feet

Warrington
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Thu -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:40 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:44 AM CST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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