Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Breeze, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 122316 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 616 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

An upper low will continue to pivot over southern Mississippi, with its surface low just west of the forecast area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the afternoon, and may increase in coverage with the aid of daytime heating. Any storms that develop will likely remain subsevere as deep layer shear remains too low for organized convection. Can't rule out gusty winds, but otherwise we're only expecting general thunderstorms for today. Coverage should diminish after sunset.

The upper low will lift northward this evening, as upper ridging builds into the Southern Plains. Flow aloft will become northwesterly, cutting the area off from deeper moisture. Upper ridging will continue to slowly build eastward through the week, pushing the upper low well northeast of the area as it begins to weaken and open into a wave. The ridge will move over the region by late week, with surface flow remaining southerly. The combination of southerly surface flow, upper height rises, and plentiful sunshine will bring warmer conditions across the region, as high temps approach the mid 90s towards the latter half of the work week.
Fortunately, heat indices will remain below triple digits, but this early season heat wave could bring impacts to those sensitive to the heat. Otherwise, not expecting much in the way of impactful weather for the remainder of the week.

Forecast guidance diverges on their solutions for the upcoming weekend, creating a low confidence forecast at the end of the period. A dome of high pressure will encompass much of the Gulf of America, while an upper low swings through the Upper Plains and Great Lakes regions. The forecast will greatly depend on if the high pressure to our south will provide enough subsidence to keep the area dry over the weekend or if the trough associated with the aforementioned low will dig far enough south for showers/storms to develop. Given the uncertainty, will keep slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast. /73
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