Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Breeze, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:55PM Friday July 10, 2020 12:59 AM CDT (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:50PMMoonset 10:58AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 1020 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020
Tonight..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1020 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis..A light to occasionaly moderate westerly flow will prevail into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly near the coast through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Breeze, FL
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location: 30.34, -87.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 100419 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1119 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

AVIATION. 06Z issuance . Radar shows spotty shra that have a short life span moving southeast. Scattered clouds over the local area overnight, generally at high levels. Winds light to calm. Another round of tsra forecast on Friday, perhaps becoming numerous in coverage over the interior. Storm motion from the northwest to southeast. Brief strong convective wind gusts and frequent lightning will be the main hazards to approaches and departures in and near convection. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 1002 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/ . 10.00Z upper air analysis shows a very similar set-up as that of 24hrs ago with a deep layer ridge stretching from the FL Peninsula to the Four Corners of the Desert southwest. Along the northern periphery of the ridge is a higher level northwest flow on the southwest flank of lower geo-potential heights by a deep layer trof from the mid MS valley into the southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A diffluent high-level northwest flow aloft remains in place over the central Gulf coast which will support a corridor where any convective complexes and mesoscale outflow boundaries originating over the Mid-South will track southeast into the local area. The resultant outflow will provide a focus for ascent with scattered to perhaps numerous storm coverage during the time of peak heating and instability. Still some dry air aloft would favor a wet microburst or two in some of the stronger storms. The challenge will be when and where organized convection lines up upstream which will determine areas that see the highest rain probabilities through the course of the day Friday.

Before storms get going, highs warming up into the lower to perhaps mid 90s coupled with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s results in the likelihood of excessive heat Friday. Latest gridded heat index values meet or exceed criteria for heat advisory (108ᴼ). Considering this, A heat advisory is now posted for portions of southeast MS, southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle, north of the coast. Very little change in overnight lows Friday night which will be warm and muggy. Mid to upper 70s. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 655 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . Clusters of early evening tsra were dropping southeast over the Lower Alabama/Tombigbee River delta. Associated rain-cooled outflow was expanding southeast ahead of the convection at 25 to 30 kts. Additional isolated tsra could ease southeast over the interior this evening. Along the coast, VFR conditions expected with light to calm winds tonight. Another round of tsra forecast on Friday, perhaps becoming numerous in coverage over the interior northeast along and northeast of a line from Chatom, AL to Crestview FL. Storm motion from the northwest to southeast. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 335 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/ . Little update to this afternoon. Storms seem to be struggling with the dry air aloft and cooler temperatures where rain fell this morning have kept more widespread storms from developing. A few storms have developed along the weak boundary over Choctaw county Alabama and a few more could still be expected mainly along and north of highway 84. I have decreased POPS a little bit given the lack of coverage and storms struggling to maintain themselves against dry air entrainment. Also would like to note of the system now over central Arkansas as this will be the driver for tomorrows potential weather. We will have to monitor this through the night tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION / . Our area will be sandwiched between a strengthening upper ridge centered over New Mexico and the four corners region and a weak and strung out upper trough over the northeastern US. Northwesterly flow aloft will be dominant throughout the near term period. At the surface, strengthening high pressure will continue over the central Gulf in response to the upper ridge to the west leaving a light west to occasionally north-northwest flow at the surface. Storms this morning developed on a weak area of convergence along a line extending from about Meridian Mississippi southeast towards Destin Florida. This band has since weakened; however, an area of differential heating due to clouds and the earlier storms will remain over this area as the next weak shortwave in the shortwave train moves through the northwesterly flow this afternoon. This will likely provide a focus for convection this afternoon and expect storms to re- develop along a line just south and west of the aforementioned zone. With the northwesterly flow aloft, some mid level drier air has worked its way into the area and as a result DCAPES are a little higher than what they have been the past few days. This coupled with CAPE values on the warm side of the boundary ranging from 1500 to 2500 J/kg would support a potential for a strong wind gust. It is important to note that with 20 knots of northwesterly 0-3km bulk shear over the area, if a large enough cold pool can develop we could see a little more organized cluster of storms that would move from northwest to southeast and likely locally increase the damaging wind potential with any bowing segments. This outcome is unlikely, but not impossible. Storms should subside this evening.

Pattern will remain similar tomorrow, except there will likely be the remnants of a thunderstorm complex (Mesoscale Convective System MCS) moving out of Central Mississippi and into the areas north and west of I-64. The evolution of this system and timing will have a big role in how tomorrow goes. Right now, models weaken it as it enters Mississippi and has some new storms develop ahead of the system during the morning along and north of highway 84, in a similar fashion to this morning. If this were to happen we would likely see a similar result to today where a differential boundary would setup allowing for storms to re-develop during the afternoon. CAPE values will be similar to today and with dry air still in place, a wet microburst or two could not be ruled out if storms re-develop during the afternoon. There is one caveat in that if the MCS rolls through mid-morning and is much more organized than depicted, afternoon storms would likely not develop over the northeastern areas and the focus for storms would likely shift closer to the coast. This also has a big play on the temperatures.

Temperatures this afternoon will continue to climb into the upper 80s inland to low 90s at the coast. Some locations northeast of Evergreen Alabama may struggle to reach the upper 80s where cloud cover is more persistent. Tomorrow becomes the bigger question with regards to temperatures and will be dependent on the evolution of the morning storms. Scenario 1. storms move through in the early morning or are weaker and most of the area sees ample sunshine. If this were to happen, areas will likely heat up into the low 90s and maybe some mid 90s over southeastern Mississippi and coastal Alabama. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s this would likely result in heat index values of 105-110. This would likely prompt a heat advisory for at least southeastern Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Scenario 2. Storms roll through mid-morning and clouds limit the heating. This would likely keep us well below advisory criteria. Due to the uncertainty we decided to hold off and evaluate the situation later this evening as the thunderstorm complex moves closer. Lets just hope scenario 2 is the winning scenario because otherwise it will be HOT! BB/03

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/ . An upper level trough will dig along the East Coast as strong upper ridging builds from the Four Corners region east across the Southern Plains. Our forecast area will remain positioned within a northwesterly flow region aloft between these two large scale features. This pattern should favor the development of mesoscale convective systems through the weekend from the Central Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. There remains questions regarding how far south these MCS/s will traverse, but regardless there will likely be convective redevelopment on convective outflow boundaries generated from these storm complexes, especially as instability builds diurnally. The best potential for storms will be along the height gradient over the eastern half of the forecast area.

Further west, the upper ridge will be more dominant with lower storm coverage expected. Prior to any diurnal convection, it appears that temperatures will quickly heat into the lower to middle 90s each day through the weekend, especially over the western half of the area. These hot temperatures combined with seasonably high dewpoints in the middle 70s will likely result in heat indices above 107 degrees and a heat advisory will likely be needed for portions of the region this weekend. Overnight lows will also remain warm, ranging from the middle 70s over interior sections to near 80 degrees at the beaches.

Drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere spread atop the very moist low levels may serve to enhance the overall wet microburst potential. Storms may become semi-organized during the second half of the weekend across inland portions of southeast Mississippi and interior south Alabama as stronger mid level flow noses south into these areas. Regardless, a few of the more intense storms may produce severe wind gusts through the weekend during the peak instability of the day. /JLH

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/ . The strong upper ridge over the Southern Plains late in the weekend will begin to shift east early next week as the upper trough moves east out over the western Atlantic. The Deep South will remain to the south of this ridge axis with easterly flow developing by mid week. Upper level disturbances in the easterlies will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the extended period. The hot and humid weather should persist through the period with high temperatures remaining in the lower to middle 90s, with lows mainly in the 70s. /JLH

MARINE . Moderate westerly winds will support Small Craft Exercise Caution wording this evening, and again Friday afternoon. No other impacts are forecast except winds and waves higher near showers and thunderstorms. /29/03

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM CDT Friday for ALZ059-261>264.

FL . Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201-203.

MS . Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM CDT Friday for MSZ075-076-078- 079.

GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 5 mi60 min WNW 1 G 2.9 83°F 86°F1014.2 hPa (+0.7)
PPTA1 21 mi90 min 83°F 1014.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi170 min 12 G 16 82°F1014.1 hPa
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 35 mi90 min SW 17 84°F 1014.2 hPa
WBYA1 36 mi60 min 87°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 36 mi75 min 83°F 1014 hPa81°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 46 mi60 min W 18 G 22 83°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.5)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 46 mi120 min S 17 84°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.0)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 49 mi60 min WSW 9.9 G 14 83°F 1014.3 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL8 mi2.1 hrsWSW 69.00 miFair83°F77°F82%1014.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL9 mi67 minWSW 410.00 miFair82°F78°F88%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNPA

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmSW3SW3W3NW4W7NW6
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1 day agoCalmCalm--Calm--CalmNW3345NW65S9SW5SW6W33SW4W13
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2 days agoW3W3W4--NW5W3SW5W3SW555SW8
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W7W5----CalmCalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:52 AM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:27 PM CDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:50 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:31 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:19 PM CDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:50 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.