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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 331 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 331 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate northeasterly flow tonight will become southeasterly during the latter part of the work week. The onshore flow pattern will strengthen Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. A moderate to strong northwesterly to northerly flow likely returns Sunday into Sunday night following the passage of the front, with gusts to gale force possible Sunday through Sunday night over open gulf waters.

FXUS64 KMOB 071131 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 531 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions expected today though tonight over most of the forecast area. Mid to upper MVFR level CIGs possible over the coast late tonight. Light northerly winds will shift to easterly around 5 knots today, then become a light southeast tonight.
/16

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 525 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Approaching upper level shortwave energy brings increasing isentropic upglide tonight into Friday over a cool, very dry airmass currently over the Southeast. Precipitable h20 values around 0.2" start the day Thursday over the forecast area, with a slow rise during the day. Precipitable h20 values rising to around 1.3" over land portions of the forecast area by the end of the day Friday. The airmass south of the coast sees the moisture increase first, and with the airmass becoming more surface based late tonight into Friday, a bit of instability in the boundary layer will allow for light rainshowers to develop well south of the coast tonight, then spread northward over the northern Gulf coast through Friday. Models soundings show enough instability for thunder to increasingly mix in south of the coast Friday, so have added isolated thunder south of the coast for Friday afternoon.

Temperatures rise through the Near Term with the increasing southerly flow. High temperatures ranging from around 60 to the low 60s today rise to the mid 60s over northeastern portions of the forecast area to the low 70s over southeast Mississippi and Mobile County. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from around 40 north of Highway 84 to the low 50s along the coast.

Increasing onshore flow Friday into the weekend will bring an increase in Rip Current risk. The risk become moderate on Friday night, then high on Saturday through Sunday. A cold front moving south across the area late Sunday into Sunday night will shift flow to offshore and drop the risk to low in the coming week. /16

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

The next weather system of interest will be an upper level trough that will be amplifying over the central U.S. late this week and into the first part of the weekend. The upper level trough axis is forecast to progress eastward across the central and southern Plains states Saturday and Saturday night and eventually along and east of the Mississippi Valley region on Sunday morning. A warm and moist southerly low level flow pattern will persist across our forecast area Friday night into Saturday night between low level ridging across the western Atlantic and ahead of the cold front that will be making its way across the Plains and toward the Mississippi Valley region. A weak shortwave trough embedded within the W-SW flow pattern will translate across southeast MS/southwest AL and the adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. Ascent associated with this feature along with isentropic ascent in the low level warm advection regime will aid in the development of isolated to scattered rain showers across portions of our forecast area Friday night, with the best rain chances (30-50%) favored east of I-65 and along coastal portions of our CWA. Lows Friday night will trend warmer in the mid to upper 50s over inland areas and in the lower 60s along the immediate coast.

Scattered to locally numerous rain showers and perhaps isolated embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop across our forecast area during the day Saturday as weak perturbations translate overhead within the W-SW flow pattern aloft along with continued low level isentropic ascent. A 120+ kt upper level jet will lift east of the Mississippi Valley region Saturday night, which will place our forecast area within a favorable region of deep layer ascent. Rain showers will become more numerous to widespread in coverage across our CWA late Saturday evening into the overnight hours Saturday night with instability also becoming sufficient for the development of scattered embedded thunderstorms.
Instability still looks to be rather weak over our region Saturday night, with MLCAPE values looking to remain limited to 500-800 J/KG at best across the majority of our CWA. Stronger jet dynamics will be displaced further north away from the region of instability that will be in place over our CWA so the overall severe threat with this system still looks fairly marginal over our area. That said, a storm or two capable of producing a strong to localized damaging gust or a tornado cannot be ruled out given the combination of the weak instability and favorable deep layer shear pattern. Rain chances will linger into Sunday morning before gradually decreasing as the cold front sweeps across our region. The increasing onshore flow will result in building surf and an increasing rip current risk beginning late Friday night and especially into the weekend. We have continued to outlook a HIGH rip current risk Saturday through Sunday night with surf heights building to 3-5 ft late Saturday into Sunday. /21

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Chilly and dry weather conditions will prevail through the early to middle part of next week behind the departing upper level trough and cold front. /21

MARINE...
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Light offshore flow today will shift to southeast to southerly tonight into Friday, and strengthen Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong northwest to northerly flow follows the front's passage Sunday. Winds gusting to gale force are possible behind the front's passage for Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night before easing late Sunday night into Monday.
/16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 62 49 71 59 76 53 60 34 / 0 0 20 20 50 90 40 0 Pensacola 61 53 69 62 73 56 66 38 / 0 10 30 40 60 90 50 10 Destin 63 54 69 63 73 60 70 40 / 0 10 40 50 60 90 70 10 Evergreen 61 40 68 56 75 54 59 32 / 0 0 10 30 60 90 50 10 Waynesboro 60 41 69 56 76 49 56 30 / 0 0 10 20 60 90 30 0 Camden 59 40 67 56 75 51 57 31 / 0 0 0 30 60 90 50 10 Crestview 61 42 67 57 73 57 63 34 / 0 0 20 40 60 90 70 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:21 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:38 AM CST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:49 PM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:22 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:59 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM CST     -0.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:00 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:27 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:36 PM CST     0.33 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:16 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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