Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Navarre Beach, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tropical Storm Arthur is currently located just off the east central Texas coast and is forecast to move inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight. Arthur then weakens to a remnant tropical system and slowly moves across the forecast region on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the broad upper trof pattern in place across the interior central and eastern states takes on a bit more of a meridional orientation before moving into the western Atlantic this weekend. An associated surface low will slowly bring a trailing cold front into the northern portion of the forecast area on Friday which shifts to near the coast on Saturday. The frontal boundary either dissipates or lifts off to the north Saturday night as southerly flow is established over the area. A very wet forecast is in store through Friday with the remnants of Arthur moving through followed by the frontal boundary moving into the area, and high rain chances continue through Saturday as the boundary lingers over the area. Slight chance to chance pops follow for Sunday, then dry conditions are anticipated on Monday then slight chance to chance pops return for Tuesday. /29

HEAVY RAINFALL

The rainy pattern continues with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall forecasted through the end of the week into the weekend with our main impacts tomorrow into Friday with the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur. After most of the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur departs, we are left with lingering tropical moisture and a cold front draped across the area leading to more precipitation Friday into the weekend. We are under risks for excessive rainfall from the WPC for the next 4 days. Today, the area is split with a Slight risk in the eastern half and a Moderate risk for the western half. Most notably, our day 2 and 3 risk is moderate for essentially all of the CWA Saturday our area is in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

The entire atmospheric column is close to fully saturated based on surrounding 12Z RAOBs. Our PWATs have been very high in the 2.2-2.4 inch range and will continue to be at and above the daily max for climatology. Of note, the 12Z LIX sounding has a 2.43 inch PWAT.
Ensembles show this deep moisture plume of 2+ inch PWATs persisting through Saturday evening.

From yesterday, there was a slight southward shift in the heaviest precipitation footprint based on ensemble means. The heaviest precipitation should begin in our area late overnight into early tomorrow morning in our Mississippi counties and spread east. This environment supports highly efficient rainfall with rates topping out at 3-4 inches/hour. For what its worth, multiple deterministic CAMs show swaths of 10+ inches but are not geographically consistent. HRRR LPMMs for 6 hours shows 4-8 inch swaths and 24 hour LPMMs through Thursday night of 6-12+ inches through parts of our Mississippi counties and into southern Alabama. While these tend to be somewhat overdone, it indicates the increasing potential for flash flooding issues tomorrow. Our FFG is decently low given previous days of rainfall and antecedent soil conditions being quite saturated. 1 hour FFG is around 2.5-3 inches and 3 hour is not much better at 3-3.5 inches for most, except areas along the coastline.

Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches tomorrow with an additional 1-3 possible on Friday bringing storm totals generally around 4-8 inches with localized areas exceeding 10 inches through Saturday morning.
Even with the lower rainfall totals for Friday, the risk for flooding is still very high after the very heavy rainfall from the previous day. This could necessitate an upgrade in risk for Friday from WPC if the current trends continue. We already have several rivers in minor flood and these have the potential to increase in stage to moderate as well as smaller rivers going into flood stage depending on where the heaviest precipitation axis sets up. SS/97

SEVERE THREAT

MLCAPE values increase to 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon, diminishing somewhat tonight, then increase to as high as 3000 J/kg over the southern portion of the area on Thursday. Low shear values currently over the area are expected to trend higher as the remnants of Arthur approach and move into the area. While there is plenty of uncertainty with how the convection will play out, CAMs indicate that a QLCS may develop on Thursday over interior portions of the forecast area and progress southward into the marine area through the evening hours. SPC has a marginal risk for the western third of the area mainly for a risk with late night convection, then a marginal risk for the entire area on Thursday, after which may come to an end by the evening depending on whether or not the QLCS develops. A marginal risk of severe storms also exists on Friday over inland portions, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours as the weak front drops into the area. /29

COASTAL FLOODING

Minor coastal flooding becomes a concern tomorrow where high tide combines with persistent increasing onshore flow. P-ETSS guidance at Mobile State Docks shows a peak of 1.5 feet MHHW this afternoon and 1.9 feet MHHW tomorrow afternoon. Values elsewhere approach, but stay below the 2.0 feet MHHW threshold so some minor inundation could occur for typical trouble spots like Dauphin Island and Fort Pickens. We have opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for southern/central Mobile County and Baldwin County for Thursday late morning through the evening. SS/97

BEACH FORECAST

The rip current risk is now a HIGH for all Florida and Alabama beaches through Saturday afternoon. NWPS shows increasing wave action to 5-7 feet by late tonight into early tomorrow morning and a High Surf Advisory was issued through Friday evening for the entire Gulf coastline in our area. SS/97

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A mix of VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening away from isolated convection. Widespread showers and storms will enter the area from west to east beginning after midnight tonight. Any storms will produce heavy rain and potentially gusty winds leading to drops in visibilities to IFR or lower. The greatest coverage of thunderstorms is expected inland, with lower confidence near the coast through midday Thursday. Increasing southerly flow will continue through the period at 5-15 knots, gusting to 20-30 knots, especially late in the period. JGC/98

MARINE
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly winds become a moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly flow for tonight and Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the marine area from 10 pm this evening to 6 am Friday. The onshore flow gradually diminishes to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Friday, with a primarily light southwesterly flow expected this weekend. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 76 84 77 90 / 90 90 70 80 Pensacola 79 86 80 90 / 70 90 70 70 Destin 79 86 80 88 / 60 90 70 70 Evergreen 74 81 73 87 / 70 100 80 90 Waynesboro 73 82 74 88 / 90 100 70 90 Camden 73 79 72 84 / 80 100 90 90 Crestview 75 82 75 88 / 70 90 80 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630>632-634-650-655-670-675.