Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Navarre Beach, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 170803 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

New Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An upper trof oriented roughly along the lower/mid Mississippi River valley weakens while shifting a bit eastward through Wednesday, with a more substantial upper trof meanwhile developing over the central states which begins to progress into the eastern states Wednesday night. A surface ridge persists across the northern Gulf through Wednesday night and promotes a moist southerly flow over the forecast area. Abundant Gulf moisture will be in place over the area today with precipitable water values near 2 inches, and plenty of moisture will generally be in place for Wednesday as well, although drier low level air in the morning portends a later start to convective development. MLCAPE values both today and Wednesday tend to range from 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE values today will tend to be low, except for potentially reaching 750-1250 J/kg over the western Florida panhandle. DCAPE values of 750-1250 J/kg look to be attained over the entire area on Wednesday. Shear values remain generally low through the period, but the higher DCAPE/CAPE values indicate the potential for strong gusty winds with the stronger storms, and will need to monitor for the potential of locally heavy rains as well. Have gone with categorical pops for nearly the entire area today, with likely pops for Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s today, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Wednesday. Lows tonight and Wednesday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday night. /29

The axis of the upper trough will be centered over the Mississippi River Thursday morning. This trough will move eastward over the eastern states through Friday, followed by an upper ridge building across the entire eastern half of the U.S. over the weekend. A typical diurnal pattern continues, along with a surface ridge over the western Atlantic and southeast states that maintains a light southerly wind through the extended. With the influence of the upper trough, we will see a continuation of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons. Rain chances trend lower over the weekend into early next week as the upper ridge builds, with hot and humid conditions remaining. Pulse thunderstorms are possible each afternoon give ample instability and minimal shear, so we can't rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main threats.

High temperatures should be in the lower to middle 90s through the period. With surface dewpoints in the mid 70s, apparent temperatures (heat indices) are expected to be in upper 90s to possible as high as 107 degrees Friday through Monday. Lows should be in the lower to middle 70s interior areas, and upper 70s along the coast. The rip current risk will be MODERATE on Thursday, then a low risk follows for Friday and Saturday. /22
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