Marshallberg, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshallberg, NC

June 21, 2024 2:49 PM ADT (17:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 8:02 PM   Moonset 4:59 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ065 Atlantic From 29n To 31n Between 70w And 74w- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024

Today - W of 72w, nw to N winds 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. E of 72w, nw winds 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.

Tonight - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

Wed - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

Wed night - N winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to N to ne 10 kt late. Seas 6 to 8 ft.

Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

Thu night - W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

Fri - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

Fri night - NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.

AMZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshallberg, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 211511 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1111 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Coastal troughing develops today, then weakens as high pressure briefly noses in tonight. High pressure shifts offshore over the weekend, with inland troughing developing, and continuing into the upcoming week. A front, or two, may make a run at Eastern NC next week.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 1111 AM Fri...Iso to sct showers cont to migrate towards the coast and onshore acrs the srn zones, particularly the Crystal Coast towards coastal Onslow. Removed mention of thunder, as not enough forcing avlbl today despite decent CAPES aoa 1k J/KG. Showers will not amt to much, and only several hundredths of an inch at best.

Prev disc
As of 700 AM Friday

- Coastal shower and thunderstorm risk today

This morning, a tropical wave ("Invest 92L") and an associated area of low pressure was located about 370 miles SSW of Cape Lookout. This wave is moving westward and is forecast to reach the FL/GA coast later today or tonight. The NHC continues to maintain modest probabilities (50% chance) of a brief tropical depression developing before landfall. North of that low, coastal troughing is forecast to sharpen through the day.
Meanwhile, satellite imagery reveals a broad area of deeper moisture approaching the ENC coast from off the Atlantic.
Guidance is in good agreement depicting this area of deeper moisture reaching the coast through the day, but struggling to penetrate much further inland of the coast. This will setup an area of deep moisture convergence that, in tandem with the coastal trough and daytime heating, should be supportive of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. I expect this coverage to be focused across coastal Onslow County, southern Craven County, Carteret County, and the southern OBX.

By mid to late afternoon, the coastal trough is forecast to weaken as the above-mentioned low reaches the FL/GA coast, and this should lead to a decreasing coverage of showers. Inland away from the coast, highs should reach the 90s thanks to limited cloudcover and increasing low-level thicknesses within the developing southerly flow.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 200 AM Friday...

- Patchy fog possible tonight (20-40% chance)

As the seabreeze works inland this evening, boundary layer dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 70s across most, if not all, of ENC. Meanwhile, a transient area of surface ridging nosing in should support light winds. At face value, this suggests at least some potential for patchy fog development (mostly likely of the shallow variety). However, short-term ensemble guidance gives a 20-40% chance of more impactful fog developing, and this will be something we'll continue to monitor in later forecasts. An alternative scenario, as seen in most forecast soundings, is a low stratus deck of clouds developing, which would tend to limit the fog potential. Regardless, the combination of increasing dewpoints and rising thicknesses will lead to a noticeably more mild night, with lows in the 70s for most.

There's a loose signal in the guidance for some lingering coastal showers, but forcing doesn't look as notable as during the day today, so we'll keep the chance of precip lower along the coast for now.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 4 AM Friday...

Saturday-Sunday...Surface high pressure over the Atlantic continues to travel east, which will put ENC under southwesterly flow and start a warming and moistening trend. Along the east coast, coastal troughing will develop and last through the weekend. The main lacking ingredient for a much needed widespread rainfall event is instability, so the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend will likely develop along the seabreeze. Of more concern is the oppressive heat, especially on Sunday, when "feels like" temperatures are expected to reach 100-105F.

Monday-Friday...We'll remain mostly under southerly flow, which will pump in ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and increase humidity to uncomfortable levels. Diurnal PoPs are in the forecast each day but better chances will be on Monday and Thursday due to a series of frontal passages. The main points of focus for the coming week will be triple digit "feels like" temperatures and the potential for strong to marginally severe storms on Monday.

- Dangerous Heat: With increasing heat and humidity, heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s each day this week. This raises concern for heat related illnesses for those spending time outdoors. No heat headlines are in place as of now, but trends will be monitored.

- Monday Storms: Instability and deep layer shear look to be plentiful across the area. If this holds, some strong to severe storms are possible.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/...
As of 700 AM Friday...

- Periods of MVFR conditions possible through tonight (50-70% chance)

- TSRA possible along the coast today (20-30% chance)

Early satellite imagery this morning nicely depicts the tropical wave, and associated surface low, moving westward towards the FL/GA coastline. North of the low, low CIGs continue to slowly advance northwest towards the coast of Eastern NC. It remains unclear how far inland the low CIGs will get, and I've kept a SCT/BKN layer of clouds confined to OAJ and EWN for now through today. Within the deepening layer of moisture near the coast, there has also been scattered SHRA and TSRA offshore.
Some of these will attempt to work towards the coast as well, possibly aided by daytime heating/destabilization. The likelihood of these SHRA and TSRA reaching any of our TAF sites is even lower than the sub-VFR CIG risk, and I'll continue with no mention in the TAFs for now. Later this evening, the seabreeze will work inland with a period of south winds aiding in low- level moisture advection. Moistening low-levels plus light winds later tonight looks to be supportive of sub-VFR conditions (either from low CIGs or BR/FG). For now, I felt confident enough to introduce sub-VFR conditions for all TAF sites tonight, but it's unclear whether it will be more stratus or more of a fog scenario.

LONG TERM /Tonight through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...SHRA and TSRA development are possible each day along the seabreeze. Monday will present the best opportunity for sub-VFR conditions given an environment that could support strong to marginally severe storms. Winds will generally be SW with 20-25 kt gusts possible late Sunday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 700 AM Friday...

- Elevated seas continue south of Cape Hatteras this morning

- Increased shower and thunderstorm risk today south of Cape Hatteras

A tropical wave, and an associated area of low pressure, were located about 370 miles SSW of Cape Lookout early this morning.
It's unclear how much swell is actually emanating from this low, but persistent easterly flow is certainly contributing to continued elevated seas of 4-7 ft early this morning. Given a slower trend in waves laying down, I opted to extend the ongoing SCA out several more hours. Of note, the Onslow Bay buoy continues to fluctuate between 6 and 7 ft seas over the past few hours. Additional extensions may be needed if this trend holds.
Eventually, the low moving ashore near the GA/FL coast, and decreased winds should lead to sub 6 ft seas. For the most part, winds will be easterly at 5- 15kt this morning, then shifting to a southerly direction by tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will persist until Sunday when SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.
Seas will be 2-3 ft on Saturday and build to 3-5 by later Sunday. The new week will continue similar conditions with gusts possibly dipping just below SCA criteria. Conditions improve Tuesday after a cold front passes through, which will generate variable winds at 10 kt or less and 3-4 ft seas diminishing to 2-3 ft. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each day but Monday presents the best chance for some to be stronger to marginally severe.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 400 AM Friday...

- Elevated fire concerns possible Sunday

Fine (1-hr) fuel moisture is 10-15% across all of Eastern NC at this time, which is in the 20-30th percentile for this time of year. Despite increasing RH over the weekend, the overlap of dry fine fuels and breezy conditions is noteworthy for any fire that manages to develop, especially on Sunday. Outside of Sunday, winds will generally be light, which will help to keep the fire danger lower. Some areas along the immediate coast may see wetting rainfall today. For the area at large, the better chance of wetting rainfall comes Monday. From a climatology standpoint, the recent stretch of dry weather is noteworthy. For most of Eastern NC, it's been at least 2 weeks since the last wetting rainfall. For a deeper rainfall (ie. 0.25" or more), it's been almost a month for most of the area.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.




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Morehead City, NC,




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