Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshallberg, NC
December 5, 2023 11:42 AM AST (15:42 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM Sunset 5:15PM Moonrise 12:29AM Moonset 1:30PM
AMZ065 Atlantic From 29n To 31n Between 70w And 74w- 1042 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.gale warning Wed...
Today..Variable winds less than 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft in nw swell.
Tonight..W of 72w, sw to W winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. E of 72w, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming sw to W 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft in W to nw swell, building to 6 to 8 ft in W swell late.
Wed..W of 72w, W winds 20 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. E of 72w, W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W swell, building to 10 to 15 ft in W to nw swell in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft in nw swell.
Thu..NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft in nw swell.
Thu night..NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in N to ne swell.
Fri..Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in N to ne swell.
Fri night..E to se winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in ne swell.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.gale warning Wed...
Today..Variable winds less than 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft in nw swell.
Tonight..W of 72w, sw to W winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. E of 72w, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming sw to W 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft in W to nw swell, building to 6 to 8 ft in W swell late.
Wed..W of 72w, W winds 20 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. E of 72w, W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W swell, building to 10 to 15 ft in W to nw swell in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft in nw swell.
Thu..NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft in nw swell.
Thu night..NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in N to ne swell.
Fri..Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in N to ne swell.
Fri night..E to se winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in ne swell.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
AMZ005
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 051158 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 658 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure resides inland as low pressure develops along the Carolina coast this afternoon. The low then lifts away from the area late tonight, followed by a mid-level shortwave pushing through on Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the area through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 0650 Tuesday...Near zonal flow aloft to start the day but a northern stream shortwave digging across the Midwest will allow for improving upper level dynamics and guidance showing a sfc low developing along a stalled boundary off the coast of Cape Fear. This low will slowly drift NNEward through the afternoon to off of Cape Lookout by late in the day. Most of the FA is expected to remain dry with showers confined about the circulation of the low. Best chance for showers this evening Cape Hatteras northward as the low makes its closest pass, SChc PoPs here. Highs will be near normal at a few degrees either side of 60, warmest Sern coast. The coolest temps will be across the NOBX where onshore flow will hold high temps to the mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 0330 Tuesday...SFC low will continue to move well away from the coast as a strong midlevel shortwave trough moves in from the northwest Tuesday night. In conjunction with the arrival of better dynamics as the trough axis aloft pivots through the Wern Carolinas, further strengthening the upper level jet, the low will respond with deepening while sliding ENEward out to the Atlantic. The circulation will act to pull more moisture from the approaching shortwave, increasing chances of light rain showers working over the Nern half of the FA from VA. Accumulations expected to be a few hundredths at best.
Nerly- NWerly low level flow becomes predominant at the SFC on the back side of the low, allowing cooler air to spill over the FA. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s, 40s beaches.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 425 AM Tuesday...A progressive pattern develops for the upcoming week into the weekend, with a strong shortwave aloft on Wednesday bringing chances for rain, then a strong cold front possible by late weekend.
Wednesday...A surface low will move well away from the coast as a strong midlevel shortwave trough moves in from the northwest Tuesday night into Wed. No significant change to PoPs or QPF, which will remain 0.10 inches or less, highest east of HWY 17 to the northern OBX. A strong surface gradient will develop between the departing (and strengthening) surface low, and high pressure building in late Wed into Wed night, with gusty winds expected Wed afternoon through evening, upwards of 30-40 mph for the central and northern OBX.
Thursday into Sunday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's shortwave, and begins a warming trend that will last through the Saturday. Strong southerly return flow will develop by late Saturday, building dew points back into the 50s by Sat afternoon.
A complex low pressure system will move through the Ohio River Valley as the upper level trough digs south into the Southeast.
5th/00Z guidance suggest a more amplified, negatively-tilted upper trough than previous runs. Continued likely PoPs for showers ahead of and associated with the frontal passage on Sunday. Cannot rule out thunderstorms with Sunday's front, but still too early to mention thunder despite strong kinematics, given limited instability.
Monday...Sunday's strong front will move offshore late Sunday night into early Monday morning, with strong high pressure at the surface and aloft building in from the west on Monday. Temps return back to normal for mid December by Monday, with NW winds as the surface ridge approaches from the west.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 0650 Tuesday...Guidance shows VFR flight cats through the period. SKC through most of TUE and light winds before increasing high and mid clouds finally begin to overspread the coast late Tue afternoon and evening as a developing SFC low passes just off the coast. This low will deepen further once greater upper level support from an upper level trough moving through the area reaches the coast TUE night, increasing low level cloud coverage and NEerly winds from N to S. Wed has chance of subVFR conditions, but that is after the end of this TAF cycle.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 435 AM Tuesday...Predominant VFR conditions through the period. Showers are possible across eastern NC on Wed, but the area should remain dry otherwise. Gusty winds, upwards of 20-25 kt, are anticipated on Wednesday due to a strong surface gradient developing between low pressure offshore and strong high pressure over the Deep South. Gusty winds will diminish by Thursday as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
Southerly return flow develops by Saturday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front expected to cross the TAF sites on Sunday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Tuesday...NNEerly winds this morning 5-15kt with seas 2-3ft. Late this afternoon and this evening, developing low pressure works NEward through Sern and Central waters, increasing NEerly windspeeds to 10-15kt inland waters, 15-20kt Eern extent of Pam Sound and Coastal Waters. Gusts AoA 25kt for a few hours as the low makes its closest approach to OBX between Cape Lookout and CapeHatt tonight. Since the SCA conditions are brief, with them occuring an hr or two on either side of midnight, and with more hazardous conditions developing later in the forecast, have opted not issue an SCA for these waters during this period. Seas will see a slight bump up to 3-4ft in shorter, wind wave periods of 4-5sec. Showers will accompany the circulation, but thunder remains unlikely with instability lacking.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 440 AM Monday...Busy marine weather for portions of the long term period. Wednesday will present the next scenario for SCA conditions for eastern NC waters with Gale-force gusts for the central coastal waters Wednesday afternoon into evening.
These winds are the result of a strong pressure gradient developing between developing low pressure offshore and strong high pressure building in from the west. Hoisted SCAs for inland waters/Sounds and portions of the coastal waters, and converted Gale Watch to Warning for the central waters with this morning's forecast update.
Winds and seas diminish on Thursday as the surface high pressure moves over the waters, with light SW flow developing Friday as the high shifts offshore. By Saturday, the surface ridge is well offshore with southerly flow developing by the afternoon. A strong cold front is expected to cross the waters on Sunday with another round of strong-SCAs anticipated.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150.
Gale Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154- 156.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 658 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure resides inland as low pressure develops along the Carolina coast this afternoon. The low then lifts away from the area late tonight, followed by a mid-level shortwave pushing through on Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the area through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 0650 Tuesday...Near zonal flow aloft to start the day but a northern stream shortwave digging across the Midwest will allow for improving upper level dynamics and guidance showing a sfc low developing along a stalled boundary off the coast of Cape Fear. This low will slowly drift NNEward through the afternoon to off of Cape Lookout by late in the day. Most of the FA is expected to remain dry with showers confined about the circulation of the low. Best chance for showers this evening Cape Hatteras northward as the low makes its closest pass, SChc PoPs here. Highs will be near normal at a few degrees either side of 60, warmest Sern coast. The coolest temps will be across the NOBX where onshore flow will hold high temps to the mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 0330 Tuesday...SFC low will continue to move well away from the coast as a strong midlevel shortwave trough moves in from the northwest Tuesday night. In conjunction with the arrival of better dynamics as the trough axis aloft pivots through the Wern Carolinas, further strengthening the upper level jet, the low will respond with deepening while sliding ENEward out to the Atlantic. The circulation will act to pull more moisture from the approaching shortwave, increasing chances of light rain showers working over the Nern half of the FA from VA. Accumulations expected to be a few hundredths at best.
Nerly- NWerly low level flow becomes predominant at the SFC on the back side of the low, allowing cooler air to spill over the FA. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s, 40s beaches.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 425 AM Tuesday...A progressive pattern develops for the upcoming week into the weekend, with a strong shortwave aloft on Wednesday bringing chances for rain, then a strong cold front possible by late weekend.
Wednesday...A surface low will move well away from the coast as a strong midlevel shortwave trough moves in from the northwest Tuesday night into Wed. No significant change to PoPs or QPF, which will remain 0.10 inches or less, highest east of HWY 17 to the northern OBX. A strong surface gradient will develop between the departing (and strengthening) surface low, and high pressure building in late Wed into Wed night, with gusty winds expected Wed afternoon through evening, upwards of 30-40 mph for the central and northern OBX.
Thursday into Sunday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's shortwave, and begins a warming trend that will last through the Saturday. Strong southerly return flow will develop by late Saturday, building dew points back into the 50s by Sat afternoon.
A complex low pressure system will move through the Ohio River Valley as the upper level trough digs south into the Southeast.
5th/00Z guidance suggest a more amplified, negatively-tilted upper trough than previous runs. Continued likely PoPs for showers ahead of and associated with the frontal passage on Sunday. Cannot rule out thunderstorms with Sunday's front, but still too early to mention thunder despite strong kinematics, given limited instability.
Monday...Sunday's strong front will move offshore late Sunday night into early Monday morning, with strong high pressure at the surface and aloft building in from the west on Monday. Temps return back to normal for mid December by Monday, with NW winds as the surface ridge approaches from the west.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 0650 Tuesday...Guidance shows VFR flight cats through the period. SKC through most of TUE and light winds before increasing high and mid clouds finally begin to overspread the coast late Tue afternoon and evening as a developing SFC low passes just off the coast. This low will deepen further once greater upper level support from an upper level trough moving through the area reaches the coast TUE night, increasing low level cloud coverage and NEerly winds from N to S. Wed has chance of subVFR conditions, but that is after the end of this TAF cycle.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 435 AM Tuesday...Predominant VFR conditions through the period. Showers are possible across eastern NC on Wed, but the area should remain dry otherwise. Gusty winds, upwards of 20-25 kt, are anticipated on Wednesday due to a strong surface gradient developing between low pressure offshore and strong high pressure over the Deep South. Gusty winds will diminish by Thursday as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
Southerly return flow develops by Saturday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front expected to cross the TAF sites on Sunday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Tuesday...NNEerly winds this morning 5-15kt with seas 2-3ft. Late this afternoon and this evening, developing low pressure works NEward through Sern and Central waters, increasing NEerly windspeeds to 10-15kt inland waters, 15-20kt Eern extent of Pam Sound and Coastal Waters. Gusts AoA 25kt for a few hours as the low makes its closest approach to OBX between Cape Lookout and CapeHatt tonight. Since the SCA conditions are brief, with them occuring an hr or two on either side of midnight, and with more hazardous conditions developing later in the forecast, have opted not issue an SCA for these waters during this period. Seas will see a slight bump up to 3-4ft in shorter, wind wave periods of 4-5sec. Showers will accompany the circulation, but thunder remains unlikely with instability lacking.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 440 AM Monday...Busy marine weather for portions of the long term period. Wednesday will present the next scenario for SCA conditions for eastern NC waters with Gale-force gusts for the central coastal waters Wednesday afternoon into evening.
These winds are the result of a strong pressure gradient developing between developing low pressure offshore and strong high pressure building in from the west. Hoisted SCAs for inland waters/Sounds and portions of the coastal waters, and converted Gale Watch to Warning for the central waters with this morning's forecast update.
Winds and seas diminish on Thursday as the surface high pressure moves over the waters, with light SW flow developing Friday as the high shifts offshore. By Saturday, the surface ridge is well offshore with southerly flow developing by the afternoon. A strong cold front is expected to cross the waters on Sunday with another round of strong-SCAs anticipated.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150.
Gale Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154- 156.
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Morehead City, NC,
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