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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 314 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023 /214 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023/
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds after midnight. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 314 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis..
northeast to east winds are forecast through the weekend and will then eventually have a mainly easterly component by Monday. Winds will vary from light to moderate breezes, allowing for seas to fluctuate between 1 and 3 feet through the period. A couple dry days are expected followed by a return of shower and Thunderstorm chances as early as Monday.

FXUS62 KTAE 230804 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 404 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

As Tropical Storm Ophelia moves into the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight, dry air will continue to filter down into our area from the north. This will suppress any rain chances, leaving us with abundant sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90. Tonight, a nearly ideal radiational cooling event sets up due to calm winds, clear skies, and dry air. Thus, have undercut blended guidance by a few degrees with lows in the lower 60s, except mid 60s near the coast. Some upper 50s are possible in the normally cooler spots.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Surface high pressure dominates the forecast period leading to mostly clear skies at night, while fair weather cu forms during the day. Mainly dry weather is forecast; however, precip chances increase briefly on Monday, mainly over the Gulf and perhaps creeping into areas south of I-10. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows remain in the 60s for much of the area Sunday night and will be slightly higher Monday night and in the mid 60s to to near 70.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ensemble guidance favors a transition to upper level troughing to the north leading to either weak troughing to near zonal flow during this period. Flow will is expected to shift to the south and then east, which will increase moisture over the period. A front is expected to stall somewhere near our Gulf waters and then slowly try to meander north. Confidence is low on where this feature pans out, so opted to keep the NBM PoP into account for model differences. For now the best chances for showers and storms look to be mid week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The main issue of concern is some LLWS at VLD for the next 6 hours. The wind profile from KVAX radar shows winds around 30 knots around 2 kft, and surface winds are now calm. Thus, some LLWS potential exists for the next few hours until winds pick up in the morning.
Otherwise, winds become northwesterly later today, though southwesterly near ECP as the sea breeze moves inland in the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Northeast to east winds are forecast through the weekend and will then eventually have a mainly easterly component by Monday. Winds will vary from light to moderate breezes, allowing for seas to fluctuate between 1 and 3 feet through the period. A couple dry days are expected followed by a return of shower and thunderstorm chances as early as Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Generally north to northwest transport winds today will become westerly on Sunday, then southerly on Monday. Mixing heights each afternoon will increase to 6,000-8,000 feet. This will lead to high dispersions mainly in our Alabama and Georgia zones today, then in south central Georgia Sunday. Elsewhere, dispersions will be good.
Min RH values today will bottom out in the low to mid 30s, increasing to the mid 30s to mid 40s Sunday and Monday. Ongoing drought conditions in the Panhandle and southeast Alabama may result in more receptive fuels.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

No hydrology concerns at this time as we have a few more days of dry weather. We may see a brief chance in the pattern, where showers and thunderstorm chances return; however, heavy rainfall is not expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 88 64 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 88 67 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 62 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 61 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 88 62 91 68 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 85 67 86 73 / 0 0 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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St. Marks
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:36 AM EDT     2.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:02 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Marks, St. Marks River, Florida, Tide feet

St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:32 AM EDT     2.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:58 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:07 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Marks River Entrance, Florida, Tide feet

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