Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cinco Bayou, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 152358 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 658 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Now through Friday night...

An upper level ridge will expand northeast from the western Gulf across the southeast through the period as a strong trough digs across the northern plains. Ahead of this trough, a weak front will move into the southeast on Friday. However the strong ridge over the area will keep the front stalled well north of the area.
This will maintain dry conditions will increasingly hot temps.
Highs will be in the low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast.
These temperatures combined with relatively high dewpoints will likely result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

We upgraded the rip current risk to high today based on beach reports. It will drop to moderate tonight through Friday. /13

Saturday Through Wednesday...

The heat is the main story through at least early next week as ridging allows high temperatures to soar into the mid to low 90s inland (mid to upper 80s at the beaches) each day.

The ridge aloft flattens over the weekend as a trough continues to pivot across the Midwest. As the ridge flattens, a few subtle shortwaves slide across parts of the Southeast and Deep South through the zonal flow. Meanwhile, a surface high over the western Atlantic will cause an approaching boundary to stall across the central part of Alabama/Mississippi (north of our area). There will be just enough moisture across the northern portions of our area, along with the help of the nearby boundary, to allow for a few showers and storms to develop in the afternoon hours on both Saturday and Sunday. The southern portion of our area has a better chance of staying dry over the weekend with slightly drier air thanks to the upper level ridge parked over the Gulf waters. The ridge aloft begins to build again early next week with southwesterly flow aloft. Rain chances remain non-existent on Monday and Tuesday. Another trough pivots across the Midwest and Plains as we head into the middle part of the week and this one may be far enough south to provide a more substantial chance for rain area-wide.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE on Saturday and falls to a low risk Saturday night through Monday. Our rip current MOS probabilities indicate that the risk may increase at some beaches on Tuesday, but there's no clear signal in the probabilities as to whether the risk will be a low or moderate yet. 07/mb
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