Friday, February26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Perdido Beach, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 5:47PM Friday February 26, 2021 9:19 PM CST (03:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:16PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 330 Pm Cst Fri Feb 26 2021
.dense fog advisory in effect from midnight tonight to noon cst Saturday...
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of dense fog after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog in the morning.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog.
Sunday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 330 Pm Cst Fri Feb 26 2021
Synopsis..A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through most of the forecast period as a frontal boundary lingers well to the north of the marine area over the interior southeast states and high pressure ridges west across the gulf. The warm, southerly flow over the relatively cool near shore waters will result in periodic areas of fog, dense at times, over the near shore gulf waters and all areas bays and sounds through the weekend. Seas increase slightly late in the weekend and into the early part of next week due to the persisent onshore flow.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perdido Beach, AL
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location: 30.39, -87.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 270034 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 634 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

AVIATION. 00Z issuance . Expect a return of widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings and surface visibility tonight (especially near the coast) as areas of dense fog are once again expected to develop by around midnight and persist into the early morning hours Saturday. Light south to southeast surface winds are expected to continue. /13

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 332 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/ . Persistence continues to be the best bet going forward through the near term period. A nearly stationary frontal boundary remains oriented across central portions of MS and AL, just to the north of our forecast area early Friday afternoon. Models suggest that this feature will lift slowly north as a warm front through the near term period in response to a mid level trough that will be digging into the western half of the CONUS, with mid level flow over our area switching from nearly zonal to more southwesterly during the over the early part of the weekend. A surface high pressure ridge remains anchored across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing a continued warm and moist low level southeasterly flow into our area. The isolated showers of today are trending downward in coverage and should end this evening, after which we expect a mainly rainfree forecast tonight and Saturday (except for perhaps a few isolated showers over interior northwestern zones Saturday afternoon).

The primary issue through the near term will continue to be dense fog formation during the late night and early morning hours as the warm and moist light southerly flow pattern continues across our area. This warmer and more moist air continues to interact with the relatively cold near shore marine waters, resulting in formation of dense fog in many areas (especially southern counties and over near shore marine area). SREF probabilities for dense fog are once again very high for tonight into early Saturday morning, especially over the southern third of the forecast area. They aren't quite as high as yesterday through, and don't extend as far inland tonight either, but with persistent pattern and very little change would expect fog redevelopment over the marine area, advecting inland overnight. Will go ahead and issue another Dense fog Advisory for tonight into Saturday morning, but keep it primarily over our coastal counties (and maybe a row of counties inland from the coastal counties) and let the overnight shift extend inland if necessary. Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Lows tonight remain quite mild, mainly in the lower 60s. Highs on Saturday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and in the lower to mid 70s near the immediate coast. /12

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/ . An upper level shortwave system digs south over the western Conus, then begins to swing east Sunday on. An upper level ridge stretches north along the eastern Seaboard from high pressure over the western Caribbean, slowing the eastward progression of the southwestern Conus upper trough, with the ridge flattening in the process. The ECMWF is slower than the GFS with the eastward progression, adverting a closed upper low over the Oklahoma by 12z Tuesday. All advertise a series of shortwave impulses moving through the zonal flow over the Southeast, ahead of the approaching stronger shortwave trough. In the lower levels, all are advertising a surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, before a weak cold front moves south across the Southeast Monday into Monday night.

For Saturday night through Sunday night, the persistent southerly flow over the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast will continue to create a problem with fog as low level air in the low 70s over the central Gulf flows over water in the low to mid 60s along the north-central Gulf coast. Have maintained fog in the forecast for Saturday night into Sunday morning, with dense fog over our coastal counties and near coastal waters and bays. With a moist airmass in place over the western portions of the Southeast (and most of the forecast area), rain showers and few thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon on, with decent, albeit limited, instability indicated in the model soundings. Helping to limit the instability is a strong subsidence inversion around 600-700mb. As the cold front moves south across the forecast area Monday, guidance maintains the upper level subsidence over the Southeast, as the East Coast ridge flattens and the upper level Caribbean high pressure shifts west over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, there is a minimal risk of any strong storms Monday at this time. PoPs increase as the front moves south across the forecast area. Model soundings show enough instability for elevated thunderstorms, so have maintained rumbles in the forecast. With precipitable water values in the 1.3"-1.5" range as the front sags south into the forecast area, will need to monitor for ponding of water in the stronger thunderstorms.

With the upper ridge near the Southeast, upper level subsidence will help to keep temperatures well above seasonal norms ahead of the coming frontal passage, around to a bit above after. Low temperatures in the 60s are expected Saturday and Sunday nights, with upper 40s to low 50s along and north of Highway 84 to mid to upper 50s south expected south Monday night. High temperatures in the low 80s, with mid 70s along the coast are expected Sunday. Monday, with the front bringing increased rain cooling from the showers and embedded thunderstorms, along with cooler air moving south over the northern half of the forecast area, high temperatures will range from the mid 60s to near 70 along and north of Highway 84 to low to mid 70s south. /16

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/ . The same forecast uncertainty persists and today's two 12 UTC spectral solutions have grown even further apart. The model disparity seems to center around the ejection of a mid- and upper cutoff low from the U.S. 4-Corners region from early Monday through midday Tuesday. The GFS is much quicker. opens up and is further south whilst the EC is slower, further north, does not open, maintains intensity, and forces a downstream ridge into our region. By sunset Tuesday, the EC forecasts a 1008 hPa surface low and the GFS the nose of an expansive surface ridge that averages about 1024 hPa over our area for the same time.

Impacts you might ask? This initial disparity causes synoptic scale anticyclones and cyclones to be largely out of phase the remainder of the week over our area. For example, by Wednesday the EC forecasts both dry and cold air advection while the GFS forecasts a southerly return flow. Moreover, by late Thursday, the GFS forecasts a vigorous extratropical cyclone across the southern Plains and the EC's solution is synoptically quiescent under surface high pressure (a SECOND timing disparity associated with yet another cut-off low ejection from the U.S. 4-Corners region with the EC trailing the GFS). Take your pick and the ensembles really show the spread in the placement of large scale systems through this period.

All said, the forecast is one of relatively low forecast confidence. Temperature-wise, it is not going to matter much in this particular scenario. As alluded to yesterday, the warmer EC solution's max temps will be tempered somewhat by persistent cloud cover through the period, and the GFS won't get too cold at night. Highs in the 60s (Tue-Wed) and 60s-70s (Thu-Fri) are forecast with overnight lows mainly in the 40s (interior) and 50s (closer to coast). Thus, we feel more confident about the temperature forecast. A greater lack of confidence comes in the rainfall forecast department. We will keep it wetter on Tuesday at the beginning of the period with a chance of thunder and then back the rain chances off to scattered by Wednesday, isolated to scattered by Thursday and isolated on Friday (simply because forecast confidence naturally degrades with time - as it does for any forecast case). The rainfall forecast past Tuesday simply will not be resolved until the placement of large scale features and their timing uncertainties come into better agreement. Did choose to leave thunder in the forecast in association with either the GFS's later departure of the main forcing or the EC's later arrival - which is about as far as we can see responsibly. Forecasting the ejection of U.S. 4-Corner Lows has always been a challenge for this region. The slightest changes to either intensity or timing can create large differences in sensible weather outcomes (i.e., rain or dry, or warmer than normal or colder than normal, for example). This is one to learn from and you can count on this forecast being adjusted every 12 hours until we hone in on the best possible solution. /23 JMM

MARINE . A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through most of the forecast period as a frontal boundary lingers well to the north of the marine area over the interior southeast states and high pressure ridges west across the Gulf. The warm, southerly flow over the relatively cool near shore waters will result in periodic areas of fog, dense at times, over the near shore Gulf waters and all areas bays and sounds through the weekend. Seas increase slightly late in the weekend and into the early part of next week due to the persistent onshore flow. /12

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for ALZ059-060-261>266.

FL . Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for FLZ201>206.

MS . Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ078-079.

GM . Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for GMZ630>636-650-655.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 12 mi49 min S 8.9 G 11 69°F 59°F1018.4 hPa
WBYA1 21 mi49 min 71°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 22 mi79 min S 11 68°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.3)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 23 mi29 min 9.7 G 12 68°F 66°F1 ft1018.7 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 31 mi49 min ESE 8 62°F 1017.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 33 mi49 min SSE 17 G 18 66°F 1017.7 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 36 mi79 min SSE 11 G 11 65°F 1017.5 hPa (+0.3)
MBPA1 36 mi49 min 62°F 62°F
PTOA1 37 mi49 min 64°F 63°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 38 mi49 min S 8 G 12 66°F 58°F1017.2 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 39 mi49 min 67°F 51°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi23 minS 78.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F65°F96%1018.6 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi26 minS 810.00 miFair68°F66°F93%1018.6 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL15 mi24 minSSE 510.00 miFair66°F65°F96%1018.6 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi24 minSSE 810.00 miFair68°F64°F88%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNPA

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS6SW5SW4SW3S3CalmSE3S5S7S5SE5SE6S8S8S10S11S9S10S10S8S7SE6S7
1 day agoCalmS3CalmSW3--CalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW7NW53CalmSE8S8S7S8SW7SW7CalmSW4SW3SW3
2 days ago----------------CalmCalmNE4E3S5SE6SE9SE9S11SE8S9S5S3CalmS3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:07 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:07 AM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:15 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:18 PM CST     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.30.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.40.50.60.80.80.90.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:07 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:11 AM CST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:15 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:14 PM CST     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.50.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.40.50.70.811.11.11.1

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