Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Perdido Beach, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:55PM Thursday July 9, 2020 7:08 AM CDT (12:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:21PMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 332 Am Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020
Today..West winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 332 Am Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis..A light to moderate westerly flow will prevail into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly near the coast through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perdido Beach, AL
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location: 30.39, -87.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 091103 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 603 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Scattered to numerous showers and storms will affect south central and interior southwestern Alabama today with less coverage expected elsewhere. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with the exception of MVFR conditions with the stronger showers and storms and also with patchy late night fog. Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots today become light and variable tonight. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/ . An upper trof over the Northern Plains amplifies substantially while advancing into the eastern states through Friday, and in the process absorbs a broad and diffuse upper trof over the interior southeast states to the mid Atlantic coast. An upper ridge oriented near the Mexico/U.S. border likewise amplifies and expands to dominate the southwestern third of the U.S., and also merges with an upper ridge over the Gulf. A surface ridge over the Gulf which current extends weakly into Louisiana expands northward into Missouri/Iowa through Friday. This overall pattern results in westerly surface winds over the area becoming northwest through Friday while the deeper layer/steering flow changes from northwest to northerly. Subsidence effects associated with the building/expanding upper ridge will affect extreme southeast Mississippi into extreme southwestern Alabama while over the remainder of the area abundant deep layer moisture manages to persist which is rather unusual for this northwesterly flow regime. As a series of shortwaves continue to move across the region within the northwesterly flow aloft and with daytime heating, likely pops are supported roughly north and east of a line from Waynesboro, Mississippi to Destin, Florida with mostly chance pops elsewhere as convective potential is hindered by subsidence effects. Pops will be similar on Friday although the area of likely pops will be somewhat smaller as subsidence effects encroach more into the area. MLCAPE values increase to around 2000 J/kg this afternoon and to around 2500 J/kg on Friday, aided by higher afternoon temperatures. Shear values remain very low with 0-6 km bulk shear less than 20 knots. Within the portion of the area experiencing subsidence effects, drier mid level air will contribute to the strength of downdraft products with convection that develops. While this looks to mainly a contributing factor over extreme southeast Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama today, some guidance indicates that drier mid level air may overspread the entire area on Friday which in turn would includes the entire area for enhanced downdraft production. For today, expect that precipitation loading will lead to a few strong storms and cannot rule out the potential for a marginally severe storm over extreme southeast Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama, although this potential is mitigated by less coverage of convection in this portion. For Friday, the potential for severe storm potential is nebulous and depends on how the mid level dry air pans out, so will monitor for now. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s then highs on Friday will be 90 to 95. Heat index values today will be 100-106 and 102-110 on Friday. Based on this, a Heat Advisory will probably be warranted for much of the area on Friday, but at this point this is outside of the consideration time with this package (within 24 hours). Lows tonight range from the lower 70s well inland to the upper 70s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Saturday night/ . Upper level high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest deepens through the Short Term, shifting an upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard eastward. With a low level ridge stretching northwest from the western Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast has come under deep layer northwesterly to northerly flow. Guidance is advertising a decrease in deep layer moisture over the forecast area and nearby as a result, with precipitable h2o values dropping to the 1.5"-1.8" range. With the increase in upper subsidence and decrease in moisture, a drop in PoPs to around or below seasonal norms is expected. The lowest chance of rain is expected over the southwestern half of the forecast area, coinciding with greater subsidence from the western upper high pressure. With MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg, and guidance advertising DCapes in the 1000- 1500J/kg range, combined with more drier air in the mid to upper levels, strong to severe storms will be possible with any thunderstorms that do form.

The increasing upper subsidence will bring high temperatures Saturday well above seasonal norms, with mid to upper 90s expected over the majority of the forecast area, around 90 along the coast. With the hot temperatures, Heat Indices rising into the 102 to 107 degree range are expected, with patches of 107-110. Low temperatures Friday and Saturday night see the same above seasonal levels, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s expected. /16

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . An upper trough deepens over the eastern CONUS to start the extended term, bringing a weak "front" down into the area Sunday night into Monday. The trough pushes east thereafter through Tuesday, but leaves behind a weak, elongated upper low that then hovers over the Southeast and Deep South through the middle part of the week. At the surface, high pressure over the south-central Gulf results in a westerly flow on Sunday, followed by a brief period of northerly flow Monday with the frontal passage and then lighter, diurnally-driven winds towards the middle part of the week as high pressure builds into the region behind the front. This pattern will support a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day throughout the period, with PoPs hovering around the 30-50% range across the area each afternoon.

At this time, there is growing confidence that a period of very hot weather could settle in this weekend through the middle part of next week. Highs will reach the mid 90s across much of the area. These temps, combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, could result in heat indices reaching the 106 to 112 degree range, depending on how efficiently we mix out each afternoon. Heat stress would only be exacerbated by a lack of relief at night, with low temps remaining in the mid to upper 70s through the period. Will continue to closely monitor temperature and dewpoint trends over coming days as a heat advisory may be needed for at least some portions of the local area during this period. /49

MARINE . Moderate westerly winds will support Small Craft Exercise Caution wording this afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon. No other impacts are forecast except winds and waves higher near showers and thunderstorms. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 10 mi38 min 80°F 1014.9 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 12 mi50 min NW 4.1 G 6 78°F 85°F1014.3 hPa
WBYA1 21 mi50 min 82°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 21 mi83 min 78°F 1014 hPa78°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 23 mi148 min 14 G 16 1013.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 33 mi56 min W 12 G 14 82°F 1014.1 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 36 mi68 min W 7 G 8.9 81°F 1014.1 hPa (+0.7)
MBPA1 36 mi50 min 78°F 78°F
PTOA1 37 mi50 min 77°F 75°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 38 mi68 min W 11 81°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 38 mi50 min W 4.1 G 7 83°F1014.4 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 39 mi50 min 84°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 42 mi68 min WNW 17 -40°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi2.2 hrsSW 310.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1013.5 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi75 minW 510.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1013.8 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL15 mi93 minW 7 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1013.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi93 minW 510.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNPA

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3345NW65S9SW5SW6W33SW4W13
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W7W5----CalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalm--Calm--Calm
2 days agoCalmSE4CalmCalm----NW5SW5SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:10 AM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:04 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:52 PM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:20 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.10.20.20.30.40.60.70.80.911.11.11.110.90.80.70.60.40.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:04 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:48 PM CDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:20 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.80.91.11.21.31.41.41.31.21.10.90.80.60.50.30.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.