Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Martin, MS

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Models continue to show a setup leading to daily convection and warm temperatures. Coverage should be a touch lower Friday and Saturday but after that probably back around scattered to numerous storms. Model consistency and continuity has been rather good but that shouldn't be too surprising in the Summer. The NBM may be a touch too high on PoPs across the entire area but not confident enough in any one time range or location to adjust so we will stick with the 50-70% PoPs for now.

Main protagonist will be the mid level ridge. First it will build to the east over the Lower MS Valley and then through the weekend continue to build to the northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. As was mentioned yesterday with the ridge will build into the Lower MS Valley Friday but it will still not be overwhelming with hghts expected around 593/594dm and h5 temps around -7C. Both of these aren't overwhelming enough to suppress convection and with PWs expected ata 1.80" we will still likely see scattered storms and guidance is in the 40-50% range for Friday which would be the day that would likely see the greatest impact from the ridge. Convection likely holds off till the afternoon hours and what this will do is it will allow the area to warm up a touch more and with h925 temps around 24/25C highs should have little trouble climbing into the lower 90s across most of the area. Coastal areas likely remain the coolest around 90. This is do sfc winds being out of the south and coming off the water. Interior areas will warm the most and there will be a few locations that climb to the mid 90s, possibly hitting 95. Saturday will likely be a carbon copy of Friday or possibly a touch warmer. The ridge will still be centered close to the area slowly lifting to the northeast through the day. Even though it will start to build northeast it will also begin to strengthen and could be approaching 595dm. This is starting to get strong enough to suppress convection a little better. However it is starting to pull away so we probably see the scales remain balanced and thus scattered convection likely impacts the area again. Afternoon highs will be similar or even a degree warmer.

Heading into Sunday and the new work week we will likely see rain chances and coverage increase. Storms will likely be able to develop a little earlier and thus highs may be a touch cooler but we are talking like 1-3 degrees cooler so upper 80s to lower 90s. The ridge will become centered over the Ohio Valley and continue to build in strength but with it centered so far to our northeast we will be the the southern periphery. This places us in the easterlies and with that the main features to watch will be any easterly waves which would allow us to provide much better timing of rain. /CAB/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

VFR conditions outside of convection is expected through the cycle. MCB may experience some morning shallow ground fog.
Otherwise, winds will remain generally southerly at around or less than 10 kts...however, gusty and variable winds around convection is expected. Speaking of convection, covered with PROBs with the coverage being a bit more limited than days past. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

High pressure centered in the Atlantic and stretching east into the Gulf will keep mostly benign conditions outside of storms over the area. Winds will remain generally out of the south around 12 knots or less. Biggest impacts will be driven by diurnally convection each day, especially during the overnight hours and morning. Locally higher winds and seas expected in and around convection. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 91 72 92 / 30 50 20 40 BTR 75 92 75 93 / 20 60 10 50 ASD 75 92 74 93 / 30 50 20 50 MSY 78 93 78 94 / 30 50 10 60 GPT 77 90 76 92 / 20 50 30 60 PQL 75 91 74 93 / 20 40 30 60

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.