Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Freeport, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 810 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The main concern today will be fire weather in the post frontal environment. We'll be watching the temperature, dewpoint, and wind trends through the morning and into the early afternoon to see if the current red flag warning for today needs to be expanded at all.
It is a bit concerning to see the 00z MET and 06z MAV MOS guidance explicitly have red flag conditions as far south as TLH for a few hours around 21 UTC. However, as previously mentioned, cloud cover could limit heating and mixing slightly as well.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The cold front was beginning to enter or northeast forecast zones around 1am CT this morning as evidenced by KEOX weather radar.
Winds are expected to quickly shift northwest behind the front through the morning with drier and cooler air expected to filter in under an expanse of mid to upper level clouds. Some rain is possible through the next 6 to 8 hours, but amounts are forecast to be quite light and will likely not deter any fire concerns.

As the dry air moves in, and conditions warm slightly behind the front beyond morning lows, expect relative humidities to steadily drop into the afternoon hours as winds and wind gusts steadily increase. These gusts, approaching 20 to 25 mph today, will drive near-critical fire weather concerns across much of the area.
However, fairly expansive cloud cover will limit more widespread critical concerns from developing. A Red Flag warning for critical concerns is currently in effect for portions of southwest Georgia today, mostly where confidence in the overlap of critically low humidity, and strong 20 to 25 mph wind gusts is highest.
Elsewhere, despite the cloud cover, near-critical conditions will remain and extreme care should be taken to avoid any activities that could lead to new fire starts as fires will have the ability to rapidly spread.

For tonight, drier and cooler air continues filtering in winds should remain elevated overnight. This will lead to poor overnight relative humidity recoveries that is usually expected. While critical conditions are not forecast overnight, extreme care should still be taken.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The driest day of the period, and most expansive area of critical fire weather conditions is expected Monday. Winds will remain elevated behind the front and slowly fall into the afternoon.
However, despite improving winds, widespread and frequent gusts of 15 to 20 mph along with critically low relative humidity around 15 to 20% is expected. While these conditions alone might not usually support a Red Flag Warning, fuels on the ground are at near-record dry levels and it will not take much for any new fires to spread rapidly, even in conditions that don't quite meet our criteria exactly. Additionally, many new fire starts recently have shown rapid growth and resistance to control per fuels and fire behavior intelligence from the National Interagency Coordination Center. All of the above conditions are supportive of a Fire Weather Watch and we have expanded the watch further overnight.

Expect critical conditions to continue into the afternoon hours of Monday before improving overnight as we see better relative humidity recoveries thanks to lighter winds.

From Tuesday onwards surface high pressure will remain in control and several upper level systems will pass through the area in the upcoming week. However, sufficient low-level moisture return won't be enough to help squeeze out rain until potentially later in the week as a stronger upper level system maybe moves in. For now, have rain chances increasing, but it remains a low confidence forecast. While low-level moisture return will take the edge off the critically low relative humidities, we're still expecting elevated fire weather concerns to continue each afternoon through much of the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A front crosses the terminals today and will bring thick clouds, spotty showers, and abrupt shift of gusty NW to N winds. Brief periods of MVFR-IFR cigs are possible at DHN this morning with potential showers. A TEMPO group for -SHRA was intro'd for DHN/ECP/ABY. The main aviation concern are gusty winds from this morning thru the aftn - gusts of 20-25-kts will be common. Winds slacken out of the north this evening to about 10 kts as cloud cover gradually decreases from west to east.

MARINE
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A cold front will sweep across the waters this morning, followed by a shift to strong northerly breezes. Winds will turn northeasterly tonight, as high pressure passes by to the north, though a nighttime wind surge will keep breezes strong well into Monday. Winds will become easterly on Monday evening, and a fresh to possibly strong evening surge is expected. Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will prevail from Tuesday through Thursday, as high pressure sets up well east of the Georgia coast. Advisory level conditions are expected later today and last through Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A cold frontal passage this morning will be followed this afternoon by northerly winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph, and RH will be dropping in the afternoon as a drier air mass arrives. Lingering cloud cover will be the main inhibitor to more widespread critical fire concerns today, but Red Flag Warnings are now in effect where the confidence in lowest humidity overlaps with strong post-frontal winds. With dry air continuing to filter in tonight, there will be poor nighttime humidity recovery.

On Monday, the heart of the dry air mass will be in place, with minimum relative humidities commonly in the 15-20 percent range.
Sustained northeast winds will be near 10 to 15 mph and support extremely high dispersions. Full sunshine, seasonably warm late April temperatures, and ongoing drought will all contribute to a critical fire environment. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Monday where winds are currently forecast to touch 15 mph. The watch has been expanded west and southwestward this update to now include portions of the Florida Panhandle and extreme southeast Alabama. Additionally some portions of southwest Georgia were added to the fire weather watch.

Beyond Monday, the dry air mass will stick around through midweek.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend, and dispersions will be high, but winds will diminish. The fire environment will remain elevated. Humidity will start to recover our Florida districts on Wednesday, with slow recovery north of the Florida state line on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances potentially increase late in the upcoming week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Neither drought relief nor flooding are expected for the next 7 days. Any rain with the cold front on Sunday will be a hydrologically insignificant one-tenth of an inch or less. There is now a low to medium chance of rain next Saturday.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 77 52 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 73 54 80 56 / 20 0 0 0 Dothan 70 49 78 50 / 30 0 0 0 Albany 73 49 78 49 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 50 80 49 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 85 54 82 48 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 75 57 77 60 / 10 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- 326-426.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114.

GA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for GAZ125-127>131-143>148-155>161.

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120-122>131-144>148.

AL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for ALZ068-069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770- 772.