Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shalimar, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 950 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A somewhat wetter pattern returns to the region through the weekend as temperatures remain well above normal. Low stratus and patchy to areas of dense fog will remain possible each night through the early morning hours each day. Fog will remain the biggest headache throughout the forecast period with each night likely seeing at least patchy to areas of fog, particularly nearer the coast. The biggest inhibitor for fog is going to be stronger winds near and just above the inversion layer around 15 to 25 knots. Where winds are weaker, fog will have an easier time settling in. Stronger winds will support a low stratus deck. The best odds of seeing fog and locally dense fog is likely going to be confined closer to the coast and adjacent marine waters where it will be easier for low level temperatures to cool and a stronger inversion to set up to counteract the stronger winds above the surface. With that said, tonights winds will likely be the strongest of the past few nights, and given that the plan is to hold off on any dense fog advisories for this forecast package.
We will be able to re-assess this later this evening with the next forecast package.

There will be beach hazards the next few days as a Moderate risk of rip currents today increases to a High risk for Friday into Saturday. Latest probabilistic high-res guidance continues to indicate the likelihood for strong rip currents during the aforementioned time frame. It also continues to show the rip current risk remaining borderline Moderate to High on Sunday. If confidence increases on the occurrence of strong rip currents into Sunday, the current high risk for rip currents may have to be extended in time into Sunday.

Dry weather today will give way to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head into Friday, mainly across southeast Mississippi, as we continue our warm air advection regime. As we head into Saturday and Saturday night a better chance for rain and storms will exist as a shortwave pushes across the ArkLaTex region imparting modest upper difluence over our area helping to force a line of storms towards the forecast area from the northwest. There remains some variance on how the guidance is handling this feature, but with generally weak shear the anticipation is for this line to lose organization over time as it moves into the area. Some gusty winds can't be ruled out along the leading edge of the storms, but the overall expectation for anything severe is very low at this time. A similar setup exists for Sunday, perhaps with ever so slightly better forcing, but anticipation is for at least scattered to locally numerous showers and storms to develop, best chances west of the I-65 corridor.

We see upper ridging become more dominant across the area early next week with isolated to scattered showers and storms Monday giving way to dry weather anticipated for Tuesday. Beyond this, the evolution of an upper level low out of the south-central U.S.
will drive our weather mid to late week. There will likely be a period of increased chances for storms Wednesday into Thursday, however timing on that will depend on how quickly that low moves into the forecast area. We will also have to watch out for some low end severe weather chances with that if it transits the area during the day as shear increases to around 40 knots and adequate instability is in place to go with the forcing associated with the low. MM/25

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A pesky stratus deck has resulted in MVFR or lower ceilings along the coast, which may linger through at least early to mid afternoon, especially for the western Florida Panhandle. Otherwise, VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon for most of the area.
Once again, IFR or lower ceilings will spread inland from the coast after dark into the entire area. Areas of fog are possible, especially along the coast and over the western Florida Panhandle. Ceilings should gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning. A few scattered showers cannot be ruled out during the mid-to-late morning hours on Friday, especially over southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi, which may briefly reduce visibilities. A light southeasterly flow will prevail through the period. JGC/SAM

MARINE
Issued at 950 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Patchy to areas of fog, potentially dense, remains possible near the coastline for the next several nights. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 80 66 79 65 / 0 10 50 10 Pensacola 76 66 77 66 / 10 10 20 0 Destin 74 64 75 64 / 10 10 10 0 Evergreen 84 63 83 62 / 10 0 40 0 Waynesboro 84 64 81 65 / 0 0 60 0 Camden 84 63 82 63 / 10 0 50 0 Crestview 82 62 82 61 / 10 10 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.