Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holley, FL
December 7, 2024 6:55 PM CST (00:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 4:48 PM Moonrise 12:38 PM Moonset 12:00 AM |
GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 316 Pm Cst Sat Dec 7 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.
Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
Thursday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 316 Pm Cst Sat Dec 7 2024
Synopsis - Light northeasterly flow turns easterly tonight and southeasterly by Sunday. Onshore flow increases with building seas Sunday night through at least Tuesday. Advisory conditions are expected early Wednesday as winds turn northerly behind a front. Frequent gusts to gale force are briefly possible far offshore on Wednesday. Winds and seas relax on Thursday.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
East Bay Click for Map Sat -- 02:34 AM CST 1.52 feet High Tide Sat -- 06:31 AM CST Sunrise Sat -- 11:38 AM CST Moonrise Sat -- 02:28 PM CST -0.24 feet Low Tide Sat -- 04:46 PM CST Sunset Sat -- 11:08 PM CST Moonset Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
1.3 |
1 am |
1.4 |
2 am |
1.5 |
3 am |
1.5 |
4 am |
1.5 |
5 am |
1.4 |
6 am |
1.2 |
7 am |
1 |
8 am |
0.8 |
9 am |
0.5 |
10 am |
0.3 |
11 am |
0.1 |
12 pm |
-0.1 |
1 pm |
-0.2 |
2 pm |
-0.2 |
3 pm |
-0.2 |
4 pm |
-0.2 |
5 pm |
-0.1 |
6 pm |
0.1 |
7 pm |
0.2 |
8 pm |
0.4 |
9 pm |
0.6 |
10 pm |
0.7 |
11 pm |
0.9 |
Navarre Beach Click for Map Sat -- 06:31 AM CST Sunrise Sat -- 10:12 AM CST 0.10 feet Low Tide Sat -- 11:38 AM CST Moonrise Sat -- 04:46 PM CST Sunset Sat -- 11:08 PM CST Moonset Sat -- 11:35 PM CST 1.29 feet High Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Navarre Beach, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
1.5 |
1 am |
1.4 |
2 am |
1.3 |
3 am |
1.2 |
4 am |
1 |
5 am |
0.7 |
6 am |
0.5 |
7 am |
0.3 |
8 am |
0.2 |
9 am |
0.1 |
10 am |
0.1 |
11 am |
0.1 |
12 pm |
0.2 |
1 pm |
0.2 |
2 pm |
0.4 |
3 pm |
0.5 |
4 pm |
0.6 |
5 pm |
0.7 |
6 pm |
0.8 |
7 pm |
0.9 |
8 pm |
1 |
9 pm |
1.1 |
10 pm |
1.2 |
11 pm |
1.3 |
Area Discussion for Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 080036 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 636 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Mid and high level moisture and associated cloud cover will continue to overspread the region this evening. Overcast skies can be expected from late tonight through the end of the forecast period. Ceilings should remain above 3kft through the period with VFR conditions prevailing. MVFR ceilings are likely to develop just beyond the end of this TAF forecast period. Winds are expected to remain light and variable tonight and light southeasterly on Sunday. /JLH
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024/
New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(Now through Sunday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
While the area is still bone dry today, we will be trending more moist as we head through the day and evening on Sunday. Dewpoints remain in the teens and 20s across the local area this afternoon as a surface high moves overhead. The very dry air that filtered into the region over the past 24 hours will begin to exit to our area overnight and early tomorrow as the surface high slowly slides east.
Surface winds gradually turn southeasterly after midnight and moisture levels begin to trend upward. The moisture really begins to rebound late in the day on Sunday as a weak upper level ridge gets shunted east by a shortwave ejecting out of the Southern Plains, allowing deep onshore flow to develop overhead. Observed PWATs of 0.5 inches as of 18z today will increase to 1.4-1.6 inches (HRRR ensemble guidance) west of I-65 by Sunday afternoon. The area remains dry through Sunday morning. Rain chances steadily increase as we roll through the afternoon and evening on Sunday, however, we did taper the POPs back a bit as the blended guidance was a bit too aggressive with progression of the rain during the day on Sunday. We can't rule out some isolated showers west of I-65 during the afternoon on Sunday, but the bulk of the rain will remain to our west as a warm front lifts inland along the central Gulf Coast.
Based on ensemble guidance, the probability for rain ramps up after midnight Sunday night into the overnight hours, especially west of I- 65.
Temperatures will be moderating as we roll through the rest of the weekend. Calm winds are expected across inland locations for much of the overnight period with the high overhead. Normally this would lead to another cold overnight period, however, it will be a battle of the calm winds and dry air against the increasing cloud cover and increasing moisture tonight - this will lead to a decent temperature gradient across the area. Fully expect temperatures across south- central Alabama to plunge into the mid to upper 30s overnight given that the cloud cover will hold off a bit longer than locations further west (plus it'll be slightly drier). Across southeast Mississippi, expect temperatures to only fall into the mid to low 40s given the proximity to the increasing moisture and higher cloud cover. Meanwhile, beach communities will settle into the upper 40s overnight and potentially only as low as 50° in communities like Destin. Highs on Sunday will be a solid 7-10° warmer than today given the increasing onshore flow and lows on Sunday night will be nearly 15° warmer than tonight.
Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through Sunday night. Surf remains around 1 ft through Sunday, but quickly increases to 2-3ft overnight on Sunday. 07/mb
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
The start of the extended period will be quite active as a surface boundary stalls over the local region and embedded shortwave energy passes within the southwesterly flow aloft.
Plenty of deep-layer moisture will advect in from the Gulf, with PWATs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This will allow for multiple rounds of showers (and a few thunderstorms) to spread across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As we go through the day on Tuesday, an amplifying longwave trough over the central US quickly dives southeastward. This will send a strong cold front through the area Tuesday evening, into Tuesday night. In its wake, high pressure builds in, allowing for a much colder/drier airmass to move in on Wednesday and linger through Friday. The high shifts to our east by the end of the week, and temperatures will slowly moderate by Saturday.
Overall at this point, not anticipating much in the way of impacts with this Sunday night through Tuesday night event. QPF amounts from various models/ensembles have trended down over the most recent runs. Most of the deterministic guidance available suggests a 48- hour total of around 2 to 3 inches, locally up to 4 inches. Looking from a probabilistic standpoint, the most aggressive guidance in terms of QPF seems to be the Euro ensembles. Even so, the probabilities of QPF exceeding 4 inches for the full event are only sitting at around 10 to 20 percent over our coastal counties (less than 10 percent for interior counties). And with much of the local region being in a D1/D2 drought and 6-hour FFG sitting at 4 to 6 inches, the overall flash flood risk remains low across the area.
That being said, given the stalled boundary overhead and the high PWAT values, a few localized instances of flooding cannot be ruled out, especially over our urban/poor drainage areas. Instability values on Monday appear to remain negligible due to limited diurnal heating and poor lapse rates. Some very modest instability (on the order of around 400-800 J/kg) may try to work in on Tuesday as lapse rates improve from around 5 C/km to around 6 C/km. This could lead to a few more embedded thunderstorms, and possibly one or two stronger storms (capable of producing gusty winds). Overall, storms both days should remain sub-severe.
Temperatures will be mild prior to the front, with highs on Monday and Tuesday topping out in the low to mid 70s and lows Monday night only in the 60s. After the front passes on Tuesday night, highs will drop into the low to mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will also plummet into the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south for Wednesday and Thursday nights. Temperatures gradually moderate through the end of the week and into the weekend. The rip current risk will be moderate through midweek. /96
MARINE
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
No impacts expected through Sunday. Onshore flow increases to Exercise Caution levels with building seas Sunday night through at least Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are briefly expected early Wednesday in the wake of a front across all bays and the Gulf waters. Advisory headlines will persist for the Gulf waters through early Thursday. Note that frequent gusts to Gale force are possible across the far offshore waters early on Wednesday. 07/mb
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 43 69 60 70 62 73 42 54 / 0 10 40 90 80 90 60 10 Pensacola 47 70 65 73 65 75 46 56 / 0 10 20 80 90 90 90 20 Destin 51 71 65 73 67 74 49 58 / 0 0 20 70 80 90 90 40 Evergreen 37 66 53 71 61 74 42 52 / 0 10 40 90 90 100 70 10 Waynesboro 39 64 55 70 60 70 38 53 / 0 40 80 90 70 80 30 0 Camden 37 63 53 69 60 68 38 51 / 0 20 70 90 80 100 60 10 Crestview 36 68 54 73 63 75 44 54 / 0 10 20 80 80 90 90 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 636 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Mid and high level moisture and associated cloud cover will continue to overspread the region this evening. Overcast skies can be expected from late tonight through the end of the forecast period. Ceilings should remain above 3kft through the period with VFR conditions prevailing. MVFR ceilings are likely to develop just beyond the end of this TAF forecast period. Winds are expected to remain light and variable tonight and light southeasterly on Sunday. /JLH
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024/
New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(Now through Sunday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
While the area is still bone dry today, we will be trending more moist as we head through the day and evening on Sunday. Dewpoints remain in the teens and 20s across the local area this afternoon as a surface high moves overhead. The very dry air that filtered into the region over the past 24 hours will begin to exit to our area overnight and early tomorrow as the surface high slowly slides east.
Surface winds gradually turn southeasterly after midnight and moisture levels begin to trend upward. The moisture really begins to rebound late in the day on Sunday as a weak upper level ridge gets shunted east by a shortwave ejecting out of the Southern Plains, allowing deep onshore flow to develop overhead. Observed PWATs of 0.5 inches as of 18z today will increase to 1.4-1.6 inches (HRRR ensemble guidance) west of I-65 by Sunday afternoon. The area remains dry through Sunday morning. Rain chances steadily increase as we roll through the afternoon and evening on Sunday, however, we did taper the POPs back a bit as the blended guidance was a bit too aggressive with progression of the rain during the day on Sunday. We can't rule out some isolated showers west of I-65 during the afternoon on Sunday, but the bulk of the rain will remain to our west as a warm front lifts inland along the central Gulf Coast.
Based on ensemble guidance, the probability for rain ramps up after midnight Sunday night into the overnight hours, especially west of I- 65.
Temperatures will be moderating as we roll through the rest of the weekend. Calm winds are expected across inland locations for much of the overnight period with the high overhead. Normally this would lead to another cold overnight period, however, it will be a battle of the calm winds and dry air against the increasing cloud cover and increasing moisture tonight - this will lead to a decent temperature gradient across the area. Fully expect temperatures across south- central Alabama to plunge into the mid to upper 30s overnight given that the cloud cover will hold off a bit longer than locations further west (plus it'll be slightly drier). Across southeast Mississippi, expect temperatures to only fall into the mid to low 40s given the proximity to the increasing moisture and higher cloud cover. Meanwhile, beach communities will settle into the upper 40s overnight and potentially only as low as 50° in communities like Destin. Highs on Sunday will be a solid 7-10° warmer than today given the increasing onshore flow and lows on Sunday night will be nearly 15° warmer than tonight.
Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through Sunday night. Surf remains around 1 ft through Sunday, but quickly increases to 2-3ft overnight on Sunday. 07/mb
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
The start of the extended period will be quite active as a surface boundary stalls over the local region and embedded shortwave energy passes within the southwesterly flow aloft.
Plenty of deep-layer moisture will advect in from the Gulf, with PWATs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This will allow for multiple rounds of showers (and a few thunderstorms) to spread across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As we go through the day on Tuesday, an amplifying longwave trough over the central US quickly dives southeastward. This will send a strong cold front through the area Tuesday evening, into Tuesday night. In its wake, high pressure builds in, allowing for a much colder/drier airmass to move in on Wednesday and linger through Friday. The high shifts to our east by the end of the week, and temperatures will slowly moderate by Saturday.
Overall at this point, not anticipating much in the way of impacts with this Sunday night through Tuesday night event. QPF amounts from various models/ensembles have trended down over the most recent runs. Most of the deterministic guidance available suggests a 48- hour total of around 2 to 3 inches, locally up to 4 inches. Looking from a probabilistic standpoint, the most aggressive guidance in terms of QPF seems to be the Euro ensembles. Even so, the probabilities of QPF exceeding 4 inches for the full event are only sitting at around 10 to 20 percent over our coastal counties (less than 10 percent for interior counties). And with much of the local region being in a D1/D2 drought and 6-hour FFG sitting at 4 to 6 inches, the overall flash flood risk remains low across the area.
That being said, given the stalled boundary overhead and the high PWAT values, a few localized instances of flooding cannot be ruled out, especially over our urban/poor drainage areas. Instability values on Monday appear to remain negligible due to limited diurnal heating and poor lapse rates. Some very modest instability (on the order of around 400-800 J/kg) may try to work in on Tuesday as lapse rates improve from around 5 C/km to around 6 C/km. This could lead to a few more embedded thunderstorms, and possibly one or two stronger storms (capable of producing gusty winds). Overall, storms both days should remain sub-severe.
Temperatures will be mild prior to the front, with highs on Monday and Tuesday topping out in the low to mid 70s and lows Monday night only in the 60s. After the front passes on Tuesday night, highs will drop into the low to mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will also plummet into the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south for Wednesday and Thursday nights. Temperatures gradually moderate through the end of the week and into the weekend. The rip current risk will be moderate through midweek. /96
MARINE
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
No impacts expected through Sunday. Onshore flow increases to Exercise Caution levels with building seas Sunday night through at least Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are briefly expected early Wednesday in the wake of a front across all bays and the Gulf waters. Advisory headlines will persist for the Gulf waters through early Thursday. Note that frequent gusts to Gale force are possible across the far offshore waters early on Wednesday. 07/mb
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 43 69 60 70 62 73 42 54 / 0 10 40 90 80 90 60 10 Pensacola 47 70 65 73 65 75 46 56 / 0 10 20 80 90 90 90 20 Destin 51 71 65 73 67 74 49 58 / 0 0 20 70 80 90 90 40 Evergreen 37 66 53 71 61 74 42 52 / 0 10 40 90 90 100 70 10 Waynesboro 39 64 55 70 60 70 38 53 / 0 40 80 90 70 80 30 0 Camden 37 63 53 69 60 68 38 51 / 0 20 70 90 80 100 60 10 Crestview 36 68 54 73 63 75 44 54 / 0 10 20 80 80 90 90 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 16 mi | 56 min | 0G | 53°F | 58°F | 30.31 | ||
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy | 43 mi | 166 min | NE 5.8G | 58°F | 68°F | 30.32 | 47°F | |
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 48 mi | 131 min | 0 | 52°F | 30.36 | 43°F |
Wind History for Pensacola, FL
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KHRT HURLBURT FIELD,FL | 12 sm | 60 min | N 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 39°F | 76% | 30.30 | |
KPNS PENSACOLA INTL,FL | 14 sm | 62 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 32°F | 47% | 30.31 | |
KNDZ WHITING FIELD NAS SOUTH,FL | 18 sm | 59 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 37°F | 71% | 30.32 | |
KNSE WHITING FIELD NAS NORTH,FL | 19 sm | 59 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 37°F | 71% | 30.31 | |
KVPS EGLIN AFB/DESTINFT WALTON BEACH,FL | 21 sm | 60 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 36°F | 62% | 30.31 | |
KNPA PENSACOLA NAS/FORREST SHERMAN FIELD,FL | 22 sm | 59 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 45°F | 39°F | 81% | 30.31 | |
KDTS DESTIN EXECUTIVE,FL | 24 sm | 62 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 39°F | 71% | 30.32 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHRT
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHRT
Wind History Graph: HRT
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley
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Northwest Florida,
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