Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday December 8, 2019 3:52 PM CST (21:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 336 Pm Cst Sun Dec 8 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Rain likely.
Wednesday..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 336 Pm Cst Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis..Southeast winds will continue to decrease, becoming light into tonight. Winds will become more southerly by Monday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. An increasing offshore flow will then develop with frontal passage late Tuesday, persisting through early Thursday in its wake. Thus, a small craft advisory will likely be necessary by Tuesday night through at least Thursday morning, especially over the gulf waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, FL
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location: 30.45, -86.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 081752 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1152 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

UPDATE. The forecast remains largely on track, with no major updates needed at this time. Temperatures at present are in the lower to upper 60s across the area. Furthermore, current radar shows shower activity over the Gulf waters, with some light showers continuing to move in along the coast. Expecting showers to persist through tonight, moving north/northeast into our eastern counties. However, this activity will taper off overnight into early tomorrow morning. /26

AVIATION. 18Z issuance . Low-end MVFR conditions were observed at issuance. Some shower activity was also reported at PNS, and this is expected to persist into tonight. Although shower activity will decrease overnight with some recovery in CIGs possible, the main concern will be fog. Lowering VIS to LIFR conditions are likely late tonight into tomorrow morning with the development of dense fog. Conditions are then expected to improve through tomorrow morning, with VFR conditions returning by late morning. Sustained southeast winds will decrease through this afternoon to be below 10 knots. Some gusty winds will be possible early this afternoon as well. Light southerly winds overnight will then be followed by southwest winds between 5 and 10 knots through late tomorrow morning. /26

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 925 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE . Observed easterly winds have increased enough this morning, particularly over the FL offshore Gulf waters, to warrant a Small Craft Advisory for these areas through 3PM this afternoon. Furthermore, small craft should exercise caution today along the FL coast as well as in the Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay areas. A cold front is then expected to move through the marine area Tuesday evening, with an increasingly strong offshore flow developing in its wake and persisting through late Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for portions of the marine area by that time, especially over the Gulf waters. /26

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 534 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . 12Z issuance . MVFR ceilings will prevail through most of the day today, although periods of VFR will be possible. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible beginning late this morning and continuing through tonight, initially near the coast but spreading inland this evening (especially east and south of I-65). Light northeasterly winds early today shifting more east and southeasterly during the course of the day and then becoming more southerly tonight. Areas of fog will be possible tonight, especially for those area closer to the coast. Localized dense fog will be possible with IFR conditions, but for the most part looking for MVFR visibilities. /12

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 447 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/ . A weak surface low/trough over the northern Gulf to the south of our forecast area remains in place through this evening as high pressure builds south along the US Atlantic coast area. This will maintain a light to moderate east to southeast low level wind flow across the region through tonight. Mid level 850 mb flow will be more southwesterly, while 500 mb flow will be more westerly. This pattern will maintain weak isentropic lift across the region and keep an unsettled weather pattern today and tonight. While there will be some sunshine today, expect a more cloudy than sunny day. On the eastern side of the surface low/trough some showers are expected to develop and will carry isolated to low end scattered PoPs there, initially near the coast this morning and then possible further inland (especially over the eastern half of forecast area) this afternoon and evening. Most of the rainfall that occurs is expected to be on the light side, with QPF values less than one quarter of an inch. Models indicate the likelihood for some fog to return to the forecast area tonight, and have included areas of fog over the entire area, possibly locally dense over the southern third of the forecast area. Clouds and showers will likely limit high temperatures today, but max temps will still be in the mid to upper 60s with a few lower 70s possible over southern portions of the forecast area. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s over our northwestern counties to the upper 50s over our southeastern AL/FL counties. Maybe a few low 60s along the coast. /12

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/ . Weak surface pressure trof over the Gulf coast Monday morning becomes absorbed in an evolving southerly flow developing ahead of next cold front moving eastward out of the Plains. Lingering morning fog Monday AM dissipates by mid morning while a small chance of showers is possible over the far eastern zones early. Daytime highs Monday lifting into the lower to mid 70s will be well above climatology. Monday night, a persistent warm, moist southerly flow favors the formation of fog which could be locally dense in some areas. Fog coverage Monday night is supported by modest chances in latest short range ensembles with probabilities rising to between 40 and 60% of visibilities being restricted to a mile or less generally along and north of I-10. A large positive tilt upper level storm system over the Plains Monday night taps Gulf moisture which spreads from TX up across the TN Valley. At same time, an increase in upper level flow coincident with approaching cold front brings an enhancement in lift which favors increased chances of showers which will spread from west to east over the local area Tuesday with eastward advance of deep moisture. A slight chance of storms also possible Tuesday in the presence of MuCape values generally less than a 1000 J/KG. Risk of severe weather appears low at this time as the low level southwesterly wind structure weakens thru the course of the day. Any convection will be surface based ahead of front becoming increasingly elevated behind the front which looks to make passage off the coast by Tuesday evening. Before the front makes passage, another unseasonably warm day expected Tuesday, turning colder Tuesday night as thicknesses lower and colder air advection processes begin to dominate. Tuesday night is expected to remain unsettled as the main southern stream upper level storm system will be ejecting eastward out of east TX and across the Lower MS River Valley. Although colder air in place, no wintry weather expected Tuesday night over the interior as forecast soundings show the cooling boundary layer to be too shallow. A considerable warm layer is noted above 950 mb given a more pronounced southwest flow. For now, a chilly rain possible over the northwest zones Tuesday night with potential of elevated convection over the southern zones. /10

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/ . Axis of upper level storm system pivots eastward over the central Gulf coast on Wednesday. An unsettled weather pattern is maintained with modest chances of showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder. On the heels of the lead southern stream weather system will be next upper storm advancing eastward over TX. Latest global spectral models begin to diverge on the strength and eastward translation of this system to close out the week. The GFS brings the axis of a more progressive negative tilt upper trof over the central Gulf coast Friday, causing a faster eastward movement of precipitation out of the area by Friday evening than that shown in the ECMWF guidance which doesn't clear precipitation out until Saturday afternoon. GFS solution shows associated surface low track generally confined to the coastal waters Friday with the ECMWF's solution of its low deeper into the Gulf with a slower eastward motion. Considering the differences, will maintain chance PoPs late in the long term.

Days will be cool and nights chilly. /10

MARINE . A light to moderate east to southeast wind flow is expected over the marine area today becoming more southerly on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Strongest winds through Monday will be over the Gulf waters. A tightening pressure gradient between a weak low pressure/trough over the northern Gulf and building high pressure down the eastern seaboard will result in SCEC winds/seas today, possibly flirting with SCA conditions over the open Gulf waters. For now will maintain the SCEC as confidence is still not high enough to issue a SCA. Nonetheless, small craft should exercise caution today and at times through Tuesday (especially offshore over Gulf waters). A cold front moves through the marine area Tuesday evening, with an increasingly strong offshore flow developing in its wake and persisting through late Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for portions of the marine area, especially over the Gulf waters, by that time. /12

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ655- 675.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi52 min SE 7 G 9.9 65°F 61°F1017.6 hPa (-2.2)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 43 mi32 min SE 9.7 G 12 70°F 67°F1017.2 hPa67°F
WBYA1 48 mi52 min 63°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 48 mi67 min 65°F 1017 hPa63°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 56 mi52 min NE 1 65°F 1018 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi1.9 hrsESE 9 G 2010.00 miOvercast67°F59°F76%1018.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi59 minE 10 G 188.00 miLight Rain66°F64°F93%1017.8 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL18 mi1.9 hrsESE 510.00 miOvercast65°F60°F84%1017.2 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL20 mi2.9 hrsESE 910.00 miOvercast65°F57°F78%1017.9 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL21 mi56 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast67°F58°F74%1018.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi1.9 hrsE 126.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F96%1017.6 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi59 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast67°F61°F81%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHRT

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N10N7N4N6N5N5NE4NE4--E5E5NE5E8E8E10E11
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1 day agoSW5W4NE4N4E4NE3E3N4N4N8N8N9N8NE9N10NE6NE10N11
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2 days agoS5CalmCalmN3Calm--N4N5NE3N4NE3CalmCalmN4NE3N6NE4NE4E8E6SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:58 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM CST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:28 PM CST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:58 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:12 AM CST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:05 PM CST     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.40.30.30.40.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.110.90.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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