Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tallahassee, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today's high temperatures and rain chances were adjusted slightly to account for the latest trends. We will be monitoring the evolution of a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) which in its early stages of development while crossing eastern OK into AR. The near-storm and downstream environment is favorable for damaging winds and hail.

Morning soundings at locations such as KBMX show steep mid-level lapse rates and decent speed shear. Diurnal instability later this afternoon should further fuel the MCS as it rides the crest of a mid-upper ridge stretching from the Mexican Plateau to the Northern Gulf Coast. Guidance holds off most, if not all convection until the evening hrs, but at least slight-to- chance (15-30%) PoPs are in place over the Wiregrass in case the MCS tracks faster.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fog has taken its time to develop so far this evening with only patchy dense fog so far. Mid-level clouds have continued to disrupt fog formation, but we should see more widespread fog develop over the next several hours. While no land-based Dense Fog Advisory is currently in effect, one may be necessary later in the morning.

A weak upper-level disturbance will move across the southeast with the left exit region of the upper jet over top of us this afternoon and evening. While neither this nor the sea breeze this afternoon will be incredible sources of lift, but a couple isolated storms could still develop this afternoon, mainly north of I-10 and west of the Flint River. Steep mid-level lapse rates and plenty of instability will be present as well as good 3-6 km shear. Thus, a couple of these storms could be strong to briefly severe with large hail and strong wind gusts. Otherwise, highs will rise to the low to mid 80s.

This evening, we'll have to watch an MCS upstream in northern or central AL that may scrape the northern tier of our area after sunset. Instability will be waning, so the main driver would be cold pool dynamics. If it makes it to our area, then the threat of gusty winds and hail would continue into the late evening, mainly north of US 82. SPC has outlined southeast AL and adjacent southwest GA in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5).

Otherwise, another round of fog is expected tonight, locally dense in spots. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Strong ridging builds overhead Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to hotter temperatures and lower rain chances. Highs both days will be in the mid to upper 80s (except near 80 along the coast). This is near record high territory. Fog continues to be a nuisance Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The next cold front arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. The timing overall has slowed a bit from previous forecasts. It's still rather uncertain how much severe weather will materialize.
There is ample shear, but the instability is lacking in most modeling. Also, unless the southern stream shortwave is a bit more amplified or out of phase, most of the forcing will be well to our north. Stay tuned to later forecasts.

Cooler air arrives behind the front, albeit briefly. Highs will drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday and Friday, then rebound back to the 80s over the weekend. Lows will also slide into the 40s, slowly rising back to the 50s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR has returned to the terminals as of late Monday morning.
Expect another round of IFR/LIFR vsby/cigs tonight all sites; LIFR vsby more prevalent at ECP, DHN, and TLH, with IFR cigs at ABY. The only exception is VLD which may only lower to the MVFR category. Thunder chances/PoPs were too low for a PROB30.

MARINE
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The Marine Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled about an hour earlier than its 15Z expiration time along the nearshore legs from Okaloosa-Walton County to Ochlockonee River. An extension in time was made for the Nature Coast nearshore legs and southern Apalachee Bay near Buoy 42036 where sea fog is still apparent until 4PM EDT.

CWF Synopsis:High pressure remains in control of the northeastern Gulf through at least Tuesday. Sea fog remains the main concern until then with gentle to moderate southerly to southeasterly breezes. Southerly winds increase Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to swing through the northeastern Gulf. Advisory level winds are expected in the wake of the front Thursday, and we'll have to monitor the potential for gale force gusts. Nevertheless, marine conditions deteriorate during the latter half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Generally southwesterly transport winds around 5-10 mph will continue through Tuesday, increasing to 10-20 mph on Wednesday.
Dispersions will be good away from the coast, where influence from the cooler waters remains. With the increase in winds Wednesday, some areas of high dispersions are anticipated. Scattered showers and storms are possible today mainly across southeast AL, southwest GA, and the inland FL Panhandle. These storms could contain gusty, erratic winds, hail, and dangerous lightning strikes. Rain chances decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday before the next front arrives late Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Locally heavy downpours are possible in some storms today, but flooding concerns are not anticipated. Rain with the system Wednesday into Thursday will likely not lead to flood concerns either as storms will be moving rather quickly. NBM has a 30-50% chance of seeing 1 inch of rain or more, but the LREF (comprised of GEFS, GEPS, and EPS) only has a less than 30% chance. For now, will lean toward the lower guidance given the distant forcing and fast movement of storms. Drought continues to be the main hydrologic impact. For more on drought impacts locally, visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 83 64 86 62 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 78 65 80 64 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 83 65 85 64 / 10 20 0 0 Albany 85 64 85 62 / 0 30 0 0 Valdosta 86 63 87 61 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 85 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 75 65 76 64 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ730-765- 775.