Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garcon Point, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 141715 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

New Aviation

UPDATE
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Upper trough axis was positioned over the southeast US, with a high level northwest flow in place over the local area. Embedded in this flow is a very subtle disturbance bringing a patch of clouds east southeast across the central MS and very isolated weak returns on radar. Would not be surprised to see a few isolated showers or sprinkles moving across the Hwy 84 corridor into the afternoon. Rain chances though generally 10% or less, but non- zero and any amounts will be brief and light up that way. /10

DISCUSSION
Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Now Through Thursday Night...

A northwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist through Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Gulf. Its axis passes overhead Thursday night. At the surface, high pressure remains planted over the Florida Peninsula, helping to maintain southwesterly winds across the area. With strong subsidence in place and PWATs only around an inch, no rain is expected through the period.
Temperatures and dew points will continue to increase as ridging builds in and low-level moisture advects in from the Gulf. Highs today will reach the mid to upper 80s, increasing to the upper 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Lows tonight and Thursday night will only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will be in place through the period, although a brief High Risk cannot be ruled out for Thursday morning. /96

Friday Through Tuesday...

The upper ridge over the southeast states will become rather flattened Friday night through Saturday as a upper closed low pressure area over northern Minnesota moves eastward over the Great Lakes region. Another upper ridge will then build over the eastern CONUS Sunday night into Tuesday. There is not a lot happening in the low levels as a surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf persists, thus maintaining a light southerly flow through the period.

This pattern will keep temperatures above normal, with highs averaging about 4 to 8 degrees above normal interior areas and from 1 to 3 degrees above normal closer to the coast. We are not making any modifications to the NBM guidance, and expect highs to range from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas, and from 85 to 90 degrees closer to the coast. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) are expected to be in mid to upper 90s each day away from the immediate coast. Lows will average about 8 to 12 degrees above normal across the entire forecast area, and settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
We should see mid 70s along the beaches each night.

There could be some isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms north of U.S. Highway 84 over the weekend as the upper closed low pressure area passes well to our north and upper level impulses traverse our region in zonal flow aloft. Otherwise it will be dry. /22
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