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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 301 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Hazy early this evening.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..West winds around 5 knots, becoming north around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..West winds around 5 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..North winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..North winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.

GMZ600 301 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds tonight become southeasterly on Thursday then turn northerly Thursday night. A moderate to strong offshore flow develops Friday night as a cold front moves through, then the offshore flow subsides later on Sunday.

FXUS64 KMOB 042346 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 646 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Some haze can be expected, although visibility with the haze will be mostly near 6sm. /13

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 332 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A large positively tilted upper trof over the northern/central Plains to the 4 Corners region takes on a meridional orientation while advancing across much of the central CONUS. An associated surface low well to the north brings a cold front across much of the Plains, moving to near the ArkLaTex by Thursday afternoon. A series of shortwaves embedded within the upper trof look to form a weak surface trof ahead of the approaching front, with the weak surface trof moving into the western portion of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. A surface ridge over the southeastern states retreats from the region in response to the approaching weak surface trof, resulting in easterly winds transitioning to a southeasterly flow during the day on Thursday. Precipitable water values near 1 inch today trend higher during the period, especially along and west of I-65 and the westernmost portion of the marine area where precipitable water values climb to 1.5-2.0 inches. Dry conditions are expected through tonight and prevail through Thursday as despite the improving deep layer moisture, limited forcing and the distribution of moisture do not support precipitation development. There is an exception to this however, as modest isentropic lift near 305K along with low condensation pressure deficit values of 20-50 mb look sufficient to include slight chance pops near the Alabama coast Thursday morning. Some haze will affect the area through the period, but based on area observations the visibility restriction looks to be mostly near 6 sm. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to around 70 at the coast. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s. A high risk of rip currents is in effect until 6 pm, then a moderate risk will be in effect for tonight and Thursday. /29

SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Get ready for some cooler-ish temperatures and a taste of fall as we head into the latter part of the week and this weekend!

The ridge aloft gets shunted into the Gulf on Thursday night as a shortwave dips across the region early on Friday. At the same time, a more potent shortwave pivots into the Upper Midwest on its way and quickly amplifies the trough as it slides into the eastern portion of the CONUS over the weekend. Flow aloft turns zonal early next week as the trough dampens out somewhat over the Northeast.
Meanwhile, a cold front (associated with the first shortwave) swings into the area Friday morning and will likely dive into the Gulf by Friday evening. Instability and deep layer moisture will be rather meager ahead of the front on Friday, so we are not anticipating a drought-buster in terms of rain. POPs will top out around 20-40% through the day and into the early evening hours on Friday. Given the current timing of the front, temperatures across the southernmost counties will likely have a chance to soar into the upper 80s in the afternoon hours on Friday. While temperatures will fall into the 50s and 60s on Friday night, the real cooldown won't occur until this weekend. Much drier air will filter into the region in the increasing northerly flow and POPs tank to zero this weekend through the middle of next week. The pressure gradient increases on Saturday as a surface high builds out of the Plains and into the region by Sunday, so expect gusty conditions on at least Saturday. High temperatures will struggle this weekend with daytime temperatures topping out in the 70s both afternoons. Overnight lows will feel quite refreshing with temperatures toppling into the mid to upper 40s for inland counties while falling into the 50s across the coastal counties.
Temperatures begin to slowly rebound next week as the surface high generally remains overhead.

Beach Note: The rip current risk remains moderate on Thursday night before dropping to a low risk through the weekend. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A cold front will move through the marine area Friday, with a moderate to strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front and persisting until subsiding on Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the marine area beginning late Friday night and continuing until late Saturday night, after which small craft may need to exercise caution Sunday morning until winds fully subside. Winds and seas will be higher near storms. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 67 88 69 87 62 79 51 76 / 0 10 20 20 20 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 86 71 87 66 82 55 77 / 0 10 0 10 20 0 0 0 Destin 72 86 73 87 68 84 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 61 90 65 87 58 78 46 75 / 0 0 10 30 20 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 87 65 84 57 74 46 72 / 0 10 40 30 20 0 0 0 Camden 62 86 65 84 57 72 45 70 / 0 0 20 30 20 0 0 0 Crestview 63 89 65 89 61 82 47 77 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM CDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:18 PM CDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Harris
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Wed -- 03:54 AM CDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:49 PM CDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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