Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Valparaiso, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday July 4, 2020 6:56 PM CDT (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:44PMMoonset 5:07AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 1107 Am Cdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Rest of today..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1107 Am Cdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow will prevail through the weekend, increasing slightly early next week. Scattered to sometimes numerous showers and storms possible through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valparaiso, FL
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location: 30.49, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 042341 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 641 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE. Have updated to keep high pops over portions of interior southeast Mississippi and a small portion of interior southwest Alabama where the highest coverage of showers and storms will be possible early this evening. For the remainder of the area, coverage will looks to be mainly isolated at best through the evening hours. Made other minor adjustments. /29

AVIATION. 00Z issuance . Showers and thunderstorms will predominately affect portions of interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwestern Alabama early this evening. Numerous to potentially widespread showers and storms redevelop across the area on Sunday. Light and variable winds tonight become southerly 5 to 10 knots on Sunday. VFR conditions prevail through the period except for MVFR conditions with the stronger showers and storms. MVFR conditions are also possible with some patchy fog over interior areas late tonight. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/ . Weak low pressure both aloft and at the surface will aid in convective development once again across the region today. Looking at radar and visible satellite, seeing a few thunderstorms ongoing over the Florida panhandle and even a few towering cu beginning to percolate over southeast MS and southwest AL at this time. With moderate instability (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and ample moisture (PWATs around 2 inches) already in place per the 1700Z mesoanalysis, expecting thunderstorms to increase in coverage over these areas during the next couple hours. Eventually, as outflows merge and the sea breeze advances inland, should see additional development late this afternoon and this evening over the remaining inland areas. Activity will settle down towards sunset with the loss of daytime heating. A few storms could become strong and capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Stay weather aware and have a plan in place to seek shelter if a thunderstorm approaches, especially for those celebrating the holiday weekend outdoors. Heat indices this afternoon will peak in the 100 to 105 degree range, so be sure to stay hydrated and take breaks from the sun in cooler, shaded areas.

Tonight will be quiet and muggy as convection pushes offshore, though a few showers and rumbles of thunder could linger along the coast. Lows remain in the 70s. More thunderstorms are expected again Sunday. Similar to today, convective initiation will likely occur during the morning hours along the coast, then spread inland throughout the day with sea breeze and other boundary mergers/collisions. High temps on Sunday will be similar to today, reaching the upper 80s for most and low 90s for a few. /49

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/ . An active pattern continues through the short term as the area remains under the influence of a broad upper level low and weak sfc low pressure. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary lingers over the area before gradually lifting north on Tuesday. All of these factors combined with a deeply moist airmass with precipitable water values well above normal will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. The storms will be efficient rainfall producers, with locally heavy rain possible. The severe threat is low due to the very moist vertical profiles, however an isolated wet microburst can not be ruled out due to precip loading. High temps will remain below normal due to the clouds and rain with no change to the muggy overnight lows. /13

EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/ . A wet and muggy pattern continues into the extended range as the upper low slowly lifts northward and opens up. A deep, tropical airmass remains over the area and even with the low lifting north, above normal rain chances continue through Thursday. An upper ridge over the southern plains expands eastward late in the week, bringing some drier air into the area and lowering rain chances back to a more typical summerlike precip pattern. However, with the resulting northwest flow aloft, convective complexes developing to the north and west will have to be monitored.

Given the rain and cloud cover, afternoon highs will only top out in the 80s through mid-week. Temperatures will progressively get hotter each afternoon through the remainder of the week. The heat index will also get higher and higher each day with widespread 100-105° heat index Wednesday through early next weekend. /13

MARINE . A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow will prevail into early next week with relatively few impacts to boaters over the marine area. Scattered thunderstorms are possible through the period, with brief but localized higher winds and seas in and around the stronger storms. /49

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi57 min NE 12 G 15 78°F 84°F1012.2 hPa (+0.4)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 39 mi57 min WSW 4.1 G 9.9 84°F 88°F1011.2 hPa (+0.0)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 49 mi57 min NNE 5.1 G 8 82°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 64 mi37 min W 9.7 G 14 83°F 86°F1011.2 hPa76°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL3 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F75°F77%1011.4 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi64 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F75°F75%1010.5 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL11 mi61 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F75°F76%1010.6 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL21 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair80°F73°F79%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5CalmCalmE4E3CalmN3NE5NE5E4NE5E4S3NE44W5W4NW3CalmSW5
1 day agoW7W6W6NW8NW7W6NW7NW5N5N5NW4NW4N5N7NE4CalmSW4SW7S10N4CalmSW9SW6SW6
2 days agoN23
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:07 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:13 AM CDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:20 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:44 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.100.10.20.40.50.60.80.80.90.90.80.70.70.50.40.30.20-0-0.1-0.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:04 AM CDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:08 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:16 PM CDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:44 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:44 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.711.31.61.822.12.121.81.51.30.90.60.30-0.2-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.