Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:20 PM Moonrise 7:19 PM   Moonset 5:51 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 345 Am Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.

GMZ600 345 Am Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate easterly flow early this morning will become southeasterly to southerly this afternoon and evening. A light and variable flow pattern will prevail tonight through Thursday morning. Onshore flow will strengthen late this week and into the weekend.

FXUS64 KMOB 231133 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent through the forecast period. Winds will become southeasterly to southerly between 5-10 knots with occasional higher gusts possible late this morning and this afternoon. /21

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/

New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A deep layer dry airmass remains entrenched across our forecast area early this morning underneath northwesterly flow aloft. A large surface ridge of high pressure extends across the Eastern Seaboard and into the north central Gulf Coast region. Clear skies, light winds, and the dry surface airmass has allowed for decent radiational cooling overnight with temperatures ranging from around 40 degrees to the mid 40s across most locations along and north of the I-10 corridor as of 4 AM CDT, while locations along the coast were averaging in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

The dry northwesterly to zonal flow pattern aloft will generally remain prevalent across our forecast area today and tonight while the surface ridge axis remains oriented along the north central Gulf Coast. A southerly low level flow pattern will take shape across our forecast area late this morning into this afternoon, allowing for a gradual increase in low level moisture across the region. Skies will remain mostly sunny through the day, with perhaps some cumulus developing in the southerly flow regime this afternoon. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected again tonight. There could be some very patchy light fog development in a few spots early this morning and again late tonight/early Wednesday morning, but confidence in occurrence and the anticipated very patchy/limited nature of fog development precluded any mention in the forecast. A weak upper level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley and southeast states on Wednesday. An associated weak frontal boundary may push into central portions of MS/AL and perhaps into the vicinity of far northern portions of our forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. A slight increase in boundary layer moisture and weak convergence along this boundary could result in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday afternoon, but the bulk of the latest guidance indicates that any isolated convection that develops should remain to the north of our region.
We kept POPs just below mentionable levels around 10% over far northern parts of our CWA by Wednesday afternoon for now.

Highs today are forecast to range in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. Lows tonight should average between 50-55 over most locations along and north of I-10 and in the mid 50s to lower 60s along the immediate coast.
Temperatures on Wednesday should warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the region. The rip current risk looks to remain LOW through the middle to latter part of the week, before increasing by the end of the week and especially into this weekend. /21

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The area remains mostly dry through the remainder of the week and weekend before rain chances rebound early next week.

Northwesterly flow aloft prevails through early Friday morning as the region remains on the periphery of an approaching ridge to our west. As the ridge slides overhead, flow aloft turns westerly to southwesterly in the afternoon on Friday. Down at the surface, a surface high over the western Atlantic maintains its grip over the eastern Gulf and the local area through the weekend. A front will dip into parts of the Mid South and Southeast on Thursday, but it is still expected to hang up to our north thanks to the surface high nosing into the local area. Can't rule out a few showers Thursday afternoon as the front nudges toward the Highway 84 corridor, but confidence is too low to include POPs in the forecast at this time.
Onshore flow becomes more established as we roll into the weekend, pumping in plenty of moisture to the area. Similar to Thursday, a few showers are possible, but not likely in the afternoon hours this weekend as a few shortwaves pivot across the ridge aloft with ample moisture streaming into the region. Rain chances begin to increase late Monday into Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.

Beach Note: Rip current risk increases to MODERATE on Friday with a HIGH RISK expected by Saturday as onshore flow continues to increase at the beaches. RCMOS probabilities indicate a high likelihood of the risk remaining HIGH through at least Sunday at all local beaches. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

No marine impacts anticipated through the week. Onshore flow is forecast to strengthen with a gradual build in seas late Friday and into the weekend. /21

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 76 55 82 60 83 61 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 75 60 78 62 81 63 79 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 Destin 73 62 76 65 79 66 78 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 77 51 82 57 84 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 77 51 82 58 85 58 85 62 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 Camden 76 51 79 56 82 58 83 61 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 Crestview 77 50 83 56 85 57 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Tue -- 05:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:30 AM CDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:18 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:25 PM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Harris
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Tue -- 05:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:34 PM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:19 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:56 PM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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