Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Valparaiso, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:11PM Saturday January 18, 2020 7:58 AM CST (13:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:46AMMoonset 1:17PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 702 Am Cst Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 13 to 18 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 702 Am Cst Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis..A moderate to strong easterly wind flow early today will shift south then southwest and diminish this afternoon and this evening ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. The cold front is expected to move across the marine area early Sunday morning, generally before Sunrise, leading to a strong offshore flow Sunday through Tuesday morning. Northerly winds and seas will slowly diminish late Tuesday and Tuesday night then become mostly east and rebuild later in the week ahead of another cold front approaching from the northwest. Scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded Thunderstorms will occur ahead and in the wake of the cold front today and tonight. A small craft advisory will likely be required in the wake of the cold front Sunday through early Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valparaiso, FL
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location: 30.49, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 181216 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 616 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tonight/ . Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage later this morning through early this evening ahead a cold front approaching from the west. Although moderate instability and vertical shear is noted ahead of the front, occurring during the day today for most locations, most of the forecast guidance show the better dynamically forcing near the base of a passing short wave trof remaining well to the north passing mostly over the mid MS and TN River valleys this afternoon, thus limiting to the threat for severe weather today and tonight. As this upper system continues to move further to the east late this afternoon and evening most of the convection will switch over to mostly light rain and showers ahead and in the wake of the cold front tonight and early Sun morning. The cold front will move across the the area after midnight tonight exiting to the south and east generally before sunrise Sun morning.

Temperatures will be warmer today, generally well above seasonal norms by this afternoon then falling to near of just above seasonal norms in the wake of the front shortly before sunrise. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s generally north of the I-10 corridor and the lower to middle 70s to the south. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 30s to lower 40s generally over western and northern sections of the forecast area and the middle 40s to near 50 to the east and along the coast. 32/ee

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Expect mostly MVFR cigs and visibilities through 19.12z ahead of a cold front that will move across the region after midnight tonight. lower cigs and visibilities will occur mostly in low status, light to moderate rain and patchy fog this afternoon and tonight., Winds will be southeast to south at 8 to 12 knots through about 18.21z slowly shifting southwest to northwest at 10 to 15 knots with slightly higher gusts ahead and in the wake of the front late this afternoon through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/ . Expansive ridging will be sliding east of the forecast area Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is expected to move into our area late Saturday afternoon or early evening, and then to continue east across and out of the forecast area by late Saturday night. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the area Saturday in association with the frontal passage. Wind fields are relatively weak, and thermodynamic profiles do not support strong to severe storms, so only general thunderstorm activity is expected. CAMs show precipitation generally beginning over our western counties mid to late morning Saturday, and moving east across our area through late Saturday afternoon. By Saturday evening, most guidance indicates that the majority of the precipitation will have moved east of our forecast area. New guidance coming in shows temperature forecast generally the same. Highs on Saturday in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area. Cooler on Saturday night, with lows ranging from the upper 30s over northwestern counties to low to mid 40s southeastern counties. Along the beaches lows will likely be in the upper 40s. /12

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/ . In the wake of the passage of the cold front Saturday night, an upper trof gradually amplifies over the eastern states through Monday night and maintains a deep layer northerly flow over the forecast area. This ushers in dry and progressively colder air into the region, and other than small pops Sunday morning over coastal portions of Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties, will have dry conditions through the period. Lows Sunday night range from around 30 inland to the mid 30s at the coast, then lows Monday night range from the mid 20s inland to the lower 30s at the coast. Highs on Sunday range from around 50 well inland to the mid 50s at the coast then Monday ranges from the mid 40s well inland to the lower 50s over the southern portion of the area. /29

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/ . The upper trof over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday night as an upper ridge builds from the central states into the eastern states. The upper ridge moves off into the western Atlantic through Thursday while an upper trof amplifies as it advances from the northwest states into the central states. There is uncertainty regarding how much the upper trof will amplify which in turn affects the eventual movement of an associated surface low. If the upper trof amplifies significantly upon moving into the central states, an associated surface low moves from the southern Plains into the northwest Gulf and eventually across the central Gulf coast on Friday. A less amplified upper trof results in the surface low moving from the central Plains towards the Great Lakes. There appears to be a weak consensus favoring the surface low moving towards the central Gulf coast but either way the overall pattern supports a dry forecast through Wednesday night followed by pops trending to good chance/likely pops for Friday. Will continue to monitor. /29

MARINE . A moderate to strong easterly wind flow early today will shift south then southwest and diminish this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. The cold front is expected to move across the marine area early Sun morning generally before sunrise leading to a strong offshore flow Sun through Tue morning. Northerly winds and seas will slowly diminish late Tue and Tue night then become mostly east and rebuild later in the week ahead of another cold front approaching from the northwest. Scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will occur ahead and in the wake of the front today and tonight. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required in the wake of the cold front Sun through early Tue. 32/ee

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ631-632.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ670-675.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi59 min 1027 hPa (+0.0)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 39 mi59 min 61°F 1025.4 hPa (-0.5)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 49 mi59 min 66°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 64 mi39 min ESE 18 G 21 67°F 64°F1024.3 hPa64°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL3 mi2 hrsE 1210.00 miOvercast58°F50°F77%1027.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi66 minE 1010.00 miOvercast57°F50°F78%1026.1 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL11 mi2 hrsESE 1210.00 miOvercast58°F51°F78%1025.9 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL21 mi66 minE 610.00 miOvercast55°F48°F77%1026.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmN4NW4NW5N9N8N8N9N7NE9N10N8N11NE11NE10--NE8NE7NE7NE7NE7NE9NE8E10
2 days agoS4S6S6S6S7S9S6S5S6S6S6S3S4S4S3S3SW3W3SW4CalmCalmNW3N3N3

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:46 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM CST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:17 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:09 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:47 PM CST     0.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10-0-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0-000.10.20.20.30.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:47 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM CST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:18 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:51 PM CST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.30.40.60.70.90.910.90.90.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.