Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Valparaiso, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:13PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 11:29 AM CST (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 317 Am Cst Tue Jan 19 2021
Today..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tonight..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of rain.
Friday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of rain.
Friday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of rain.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 317 Am Cst Tue Jan 19 2021
Synopsis..Generally light onshore flow expected today before a weak cold front brings light to occasionally moderate offshore flow on Wednesday. A light to moderate onshore flow returns Wednesday night through Friday, followed by another cold front and offshore flow in its wake over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valparaiso, FL
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location: 30.49, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 191127 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 527 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/. Zonal upper level flow remains over the region through Wednesday with upper level ridging to our south present over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak mid-level shortwave tracks across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a weak surface front pushes through the CWA tonight into Wednesday morning, allowing for some increased cloud cover over the area. A surface high precedes this feature, shifting quickly east today. By Wednesday afternoon, another surface high pressure quickly builds into the region. At this time, it appears that the only rain chances will be present over the far northern portions of the CWA, with slight chance PoPs tonight into Wednesday morning. After starting out in the lower to middle 30's this morning, temperatures rapidly warm this afternoon into the upper 60's to possibly even lower 70's in spots. Much warmer temps are on tap tonight compared to the last few nights, with lows in the middle to upper 40's. Wednesday's highs are dampened a bit owing to increased cloud cover and the surface front moving through, but should still manage lower to middle 60's for most locations. MM/25

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . VFR conditions prevail throughout the forecast period. Light southeasterly winds become southerly this afternoon around 5kts. Few to scattered clouds begin moving in this afternoon between FL150 and FL250, persisting through the end of the TAF period. MM/25

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 356 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/ . Zonal upper level flow remains over the region through Wednesday with upper level ridging to our south present over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak mid-level shortwave tracks across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a weak surface front pushes through the CWA tonight into Wednesday morning, allowing for some increased cloud cover over the area. A surface high precedes this feature, shifting quickly east today. By Wednesday afternoon, another surface high pressure quickly builds into the region. At this time, it appears that the only rain chances will be present over the far northern portions of the CWA, with slight chance PoPs tonight into Wednesday morning. After starting out in the lower to middle 30's this morning, temperatures rapidly warm this afternoon into the upper 60's to possibly even lower 70's in spots. Much warmer temps are on tap tonight compared to the last few nights, with lows in the middle to upper 40's. Wednesday's highs are dampened a bit owing to increased cloud cover and the surface front moving through, but should still manage lower to middle 60's for most locations. MM/25

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/ . A mainly zonal flow pattern aloft will persist across our forecast area during the Wednesday night through Thursday night time frame between an upper level ridge of high pressure that will continue to extend across the far southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean and a broad upper level trough over the Great Lakes/ Ohio Valley/northeastern CONUS. A surface ridge of high pressure will remain centered along the north central Gulf Coast region Wednesday evening, but will gradually shift eastward toward the Florida peninsula, Bahamas, and adjacent western Atlantic Thursday into Thursday night. A shortwave impulse moving along the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will send a weak cold front southward into northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama by late Thursday night, but this feature should remain just to the north of our CWA through early Friday morning. Calm or light/variable winds Wednesday night will gradually become southerly to southwesterly across our forecast area Thursday into Thursday night as the surface ridge moves to the east of our region. Low level moisture will also gradually increase during this time with dewpoints rising into the 50s. Short range models remain in fairly good agreement with bringing a region of enhanced deep layer moisture eastward from Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley and north central Gulf Coast region within the zonal flow pattern aloft, especially going into the Thursday and Thursday night time frame. There will also be a region of increased ascent spreading into interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest/south central Alabama during the day Thursday, gradually sinking south across much of the rest of the forecast area Thursday evening into late Thursday night. Rain chances will increase considerably across the region Thursday into Thursday night, with POPs rising to 60-80% over interior areas, and slightly lower to 30-50% near the immediate coast.

Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid to upper 40s over interior southeast Mississippi and southwest/south central Alabama, and from around 50 degrees to the mid 50s near the immediate coast. Highs on Thursday are expected to reach the lower 60s over northern portions of our forecast area and the mid to upper 60s across our central and southern zones. Lows by Thursday night trend slightly warmer in the mid to upper 50s over most areas, except around 60 near the immediate coast and beaches. /21

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/ . Zonal flow aloft will persist through Friday night while a frontal boundary located initially east-west across the northern portion of the forecast area progresses southward into the northern Gulf. Have stayed with good chance to likely pops on Friday. Drier conditions expected over the weekend as the front moves further south, and broad upper ridging builds over the region in response to large western conus trough that continues to dig southward. This positively tilted upper trough will then progress eastward to extend from the northern Plains to the Four Corners region through Sunday. At this point, the flow splits with the northern Plains portion of upper trof ejecting off to the northeast while the remainder of the upper trough takes on a meridional orientation and advances into the southern/central Plains through Monday. In response, a surface low develops over the central Plains then advances eastward towards the mid Mississippi River valley. This system will require close attention in the coming days as current indications are that a southwesterly 850 mb jet over the area increases to around 50 knots early next week providing for ample shear. That said, a limiting factor at this point will be subsidence effects apparent in model soundings due to broad upper ridging which shifts eastward across the area this weekend ahead of the approaching upper trough. Depending on how quickly deep layer moisture can improve over the area and also improve mid level lapse rates ahead of this next system will determine the eventual potential for severe weather. Will maintain chance pops early next week, and will monitor for potential embedded thunderstorm development. /22

MARINE . Surface high pressure shifts east of the area today into Wednesday, promoting a shift to light to moderate northerly flow Wednesday with a cold front stalling offshore. A return to southwesterly light to moderate flow is expected Thursday before shifting back to offshore light to moderate flow Friday night into Saturday following another cold frontal passage. Onshore flow returns Sunday into Monday with high pressure shifting north to northeast of the area. MM/25

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi59 min SSE 7 G 8 56°F 57°F1029.1 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 39 mi59 min Calm G 1.9 59°F 54°F1028.5 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 49 mi59 min SE 5.1 G 7
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 64 mi49 min 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 60°F1028.5 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL3 mi33 minS 610.00 miFair60°F40°F48%1028.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi36 minSE 910.00 miFair60°F44°F56%1028.3 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL11 mi93 minESE 910.00 miFair61°F43°F52%1028.3 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL21 mi36 minS 710.00 miFair63°F34°F34%1028.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:20 AM CST     0.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:53 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:35 AM CST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:44 PM CST     0.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:31 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:24 AM CST     0.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:54 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:06 PM CST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:12 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:48 PM CST     0.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:32 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.40.50.50.40.40.40.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.20.20.30.40.40.40.40.40.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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