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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 930 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers early in the morning.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.

GMZ600 930 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis..The moderate easterly flow offshore will decrease slightly tonight through Tuesday. A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow will occur Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. A moderate to strong offshore flow will develop late in week in the wake of the cold front.

FXUS64 KMOB 022321 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 621 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Current radar shows a seabreeze located just north of I-10, with southeasterly winds between 5-10 knots behind the seabreeze, and northeasterly north.
Tonight winds become light northeasterly to easterly area-wide around 5 knots or less. JEH/88

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023/

New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The upper ridge axis just to our west from eastern Texas/western Louisiana northward to the lower Great Lakes region will begin to breakdown late in the near term. The surface ridge will remain intact across the southeast states, with rain-free conditions and east to northeasterly winds prevailing. Low temperatures tonight are expected to dip into the upper 50s to middle 60s interior areas, and into the upper 60s to around 70s degrees along the coast. Highs Tuesday will range from 85 to 90 degrees. A HIGH risk of rip currents will persist through the near term due to the increase in swell and surf heights. /22

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Dry conditions will persist through midweek as an upper-level ridge maintains its hold over our region. An expansive high pressure system at the surface also remains centered across the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic coast through Thursday, helping to maintain breezy easterly winds across the local area. Subsidence from the deep layer ridging and the dry airmass in place will keep rain chances out of the forecast through Thursday. Moisture begins to return to the region late Thursday into Friday as the surface high begins to shift eastward, allowing for winds to become more southeasterly. The upper-level ridge also begins to break down during this time frame as a longwave trough pushes eastward across the central US. An associated cold front will also approach our area as the trough progresses to our north. A few showers may be possible Friday afternoon into the evening hours as the front enters the area, but am once again only maintaining a 20 percent rain chance for now due to limited forcing and a lack of instability. The cold front sweeps through the rest of the area Saturday morning, bringing with it a much cooler/drier airmass to our area. Prior to the arrival of the front, highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. After the front passes through, highs across the area will only reach the 70s to lower 80s. Lows are forecast to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s inland and mid 50s along the coast. /96

FIRE...
A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the local area early Saturday morning. It should be noted that in the wake of this front, afternoon humidity values are forecast to drop into the low 20s, possibly as low as the upper teens in some areas. This, along with breezy northerly winds and the continued, worsening drought conditions will likely lead to an elevated fire risk across the local area. We will continue to monitor and fine tune the specific details over the next few days, however, fire-related products may become necessary for the weekend. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The moderate easterly flow late this afternoon is expected to decrease slightly this evening and into Tuesday, but we will likely still need SCEC headlines for the offshore waters. By mid- week, a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow develops as a cold front approaches the area. Moderate to strong winds are expected late in the week behind the frontal passage and SCEC or another Small Craft Advisory may be needed. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 65 88 63 89 67 89 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Pensacola 69 86 69 88 70 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Destin 70 89 70 87 71 86 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 58 89 59 90 61 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Waynesboro 60 87 59 88 62 89 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Camden 58 87 59 88 62 89 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Crestview 58 89 59 89 62 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Mon -- 12:11 AM CDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:08 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:04 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:44 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Harris
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Mon -- 02:15 AM CDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:35 PM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:45 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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