Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Niceville, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Winds along the coast have remained at SC.Y levels longer than expected, so have stretched the advisory into mid morning.
/16

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The coldest night of the season so far is underway. Temperatures as of midnight are already in the upper 20s across interior counties, with freezing temperatures already reaching as far south as the I-10 corridor. Forecast remains on track for the remainder of the night, with most interior areas dropping a few more degrees into the mid 20s, and even a few areas within a mile or two of the immediate coastline dropping to below the freezing mark. KMOB and KPNS are still expected to break their record daily lows for November 11th (KMOB record low: 31 degrees; KPNS record low: 33 degrees), with KMOB potentially breaking it by several degrees (forecast low in 28 degrees). An areawide Freeze Warning and a coastal-county Cold Weather Advisory, for wind chills as low as 18 degrees, remain in effect until 8am.

The anomalously deep upper trough that resulted in this early season arctic airmass will quickly lift away from the local region later today. In its wake, a dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will prevail through at least Saturday as upper ridging builds in from the west. At the surface, strong high pressure overhead this morning will shift to our east later today, cementing itself over northeast Florida/southeast Georgia through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will allow for winds to turn more southwesterly to westerly starting this afternoon. After one more cold day today, with highs only topping out in the mid to upper 50s and lows dropping into the 30s areawide, we begin to warm up rather quickly, with above average temperatures returning to the area starting Thursday. Highs for late week will top out in the mid 70s and lows will range from the mid 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast. At this point, we will remain dry through Saturday, with rain chances increasing for Sunday and early next week. It should be noted though that recent ensemble guidance has been trending down on rain chances for Sunday due to the slower movement of upper-level features, which would allow for a stronger upper ridge to build in. We will keep an eye on trends over the coming days and will adjust PoPs as necessary. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the period. /96

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northerly winds around 5 knots or less will become southeasterly 5 to 10 knots today, then become light tonight.
/16

MARINE
Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Strong northerly flow will persist through the remainder of the night, with occasional gusts to gale force possible over the open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for our Gulf waters through 6am. Winds will quickly weaken on Tuesday and become a light onshore flow by Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Winds will be light and variable for the remainder of the week.
/96

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Very dry conditions remain in place through Tuesday, with afternoon relative humidity values dropping into the 15-20% range. Pairing this with our ongoing drought, will result in another day of increased fire danger for the area. Winds, however, will be much lighter in comparison to yesterday, so a Red Flag Warning will not be needed. Moisture values increase as we get into Wednesday and the latter part of the week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 56 40 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 57 44 71 55 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 58 47 70 57 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 59 34 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 57 35 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 56 34 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 58 32 72 46 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ263>266.

FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655- 670-675.