Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Niceville, FL

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 401 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

A gargantuan positively tilted upper trof over the CONUS begins to amplify tonight along with an inverted surface trof over the western Gulf becoming better defined. A series of shortwaves begin to move across the area overnight along with a pronounced moistening seen in the 650-850 mb layer. Dry conditions are expected tonight, except for the westernmost portion where a slight chance for snow has been introduced for the late night hours. Lows tonight typically range from around 20 well inland to the mid to upper 20s at the coast. Apparent temperature values drop to around 10 inland (potentially as low as 5 in some spots)
to around 15 over the southern portion of the area by late tonight, and have upgraded the Extreme Cold Watch to a Warning for the entire area. The Extreme Cold Warning will be in effect from 9 pm this evening to 10 am Wednesday morning.

.A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the area Tuesday through Tuesday night...

Overview:

Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1 to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions of the forecast area, with Mobile's 24hr snowfall record being 6" set in 1895, and Pensacola's 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in 1895
Forecast details can be found below

Synopsis:

A large positively tilted trough exists across a majority of the CONUS with the northern and southern stream pieces remaining slightly out of phase as the trough overall progresses eastward.
This has aided in keeping the overall storm system somewhat suppressed, which has ironically put our forecast area in one of the best spots synoptically to favor a majority of the event staying all snow for all of the forecast area. A surface low will develop and track across the central Gulf of Mexico, aided by the right entrance region of the upper jet moving over the region. Forecast models continue to advertise the 850 to 700mb frontogenesis bands setting up across the forecast area. There remains some uncertainty in where exactly these set up, but underneath and just north of these bands the heaviest snowfall will set up. Bitterly cold temperatures will be in place with a below freezing atmospheric profile and surface wetbulb temperatures down into the middle to upper 20's during the peak of the event. Given this, an unusually high snow to liquid ratio for the gulf coast can be expected with ratios as high as 10:1 or even 12:1 over much of the area, particularly over the interior.
This will result in a drier, fluffier snow in the area that is much more efficient at accumulating. Another unique aspect to this setup is potential for some bay enhancement of the snowfall given the northerly fetch over Mobile Bay, this could lead to some locally higher snow totals across Dauphin Island and/or adjacent coastal portions of mainland Mobile County.

Impacts:

Wherever the heaviest snowfall sets up, which currently is expected across the southern half of the area, major to historic impacts will occur. Bitterly cold surface temperatures will allow for any snow that falls to efficiently accumulate. Any snow that falls will take a while to melt or sublimate post-event, allowing for snow to stick around for quite a while, likely into the extended period.
Temperatures overnight Tuesday night will be some of the coldest we have seen in many years. In fact, the currently forecast low of 15 in Mobile would be the coldest temperature since 2014 when the low dropped to 14. This isn't even factoring in the wind chills which will be extremely cold. Wind chill values areawide are anticipated to fall into the single digits ranging from 3 to 10, "warmest" on the immediate coast. Wind chill values like this will be very dangerous to exposed skin with potential for frostbite during longer exposures. The prolonged cold temperatures could result in exposed pipes freezing and/or bursting.

Another component of this system will be a strengthening pressure gradient across the region thanks to a 1040mb high to our north and a sub-1020mb surface low in the Gulf which will promote strong winds and wind gusts, particularly nearer the coast. While we aren't anticipating true blizzard conditions (criteria defined as frequent gusts in excess of 35mph, visibility below a quarter mile, and blowing snow all for 3 consecutive hours), we can't rule out temporary near blizzard conditions along the coast where at least moderate snowfall and frequent gusts to 30mph can be expected reducing visibility below a half mile at times. While power outages are not a major concern at this time given the fluffier snow being less prone to accumulating on trees and powerlines they can't be ruled out where any tree branches fall onto powerlines due to snow piling up on tree branches and winds breaking the branches off.
Needless to say we are looking at a beyond bonkers winter storm event in the forecast area that hasn't been seen in many years. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect throughout the entire event given the anticipated wind chills remaining near or below 20 during the day and in the single digits during the night.

Caveats:

So what could go wrong? There's a couple things to keep an eye on in terms of nowcasting as the event begins this evening. Trends in where the surface low forms and how strong WAA is will dictate the positioning of the aforementioned frontogenesis bands at 850 and 700mb. These will determine who sees the most snow, which is currently anticipated in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. If this band shifts northwest, those higher totals could end up further northwest. A stronger surface low that forms further north would result in that, however that is not what is anticipated at this time. Another caveat we always have to be leery of on the gulf coast is if there will be any mixing of precipitation that eats into our QPF amounts and ultimately snow totals. At this time, that doesn't appear to be an issue as this is currently anticipated to be a predominantly snow event. With that said, it's never impossible if we see some form of northwest trend tonight that could introduce a low end chance of sleet mixing in across the Florida Panhandle counties, however at this point that potential seems rather low. Any trends will continue to be closely monitored as we go through the rest of today into tonight. MM/25

EXTENDED TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

A massive, albeit somewhat broad upper trof over the CONUS amplifies through Thursday then ejects off into the western Atlantic Friday into Saturday. A surface low passes well to the north of the region and looks to bring a trailing cold front to near the lower Mississippi River valley on Thursday which then stalls, though may later continue weakly through the forecast area on Friday. A ridge of dry, cold surface high pressure will otherwise be in place over the area with a northerly surface flow prevailing over the area. Lows Wednesday night will be in the teens for much of the area except for mid 20s close to the coast.
Winds will be light, so apparent temperature values will be near the ambient temperature which will satisfy criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire area. Lows Thursday night range from the lower 20s inland to the upper 20s at the immediate coast, and apparent temperature values could support another Cold Weather Advisory for essentially the entire area. Lows Friday night will be just a tad "warmer", and it's possible that a Cold Weather Advisory could become necessary for a portion of the area.

Another upper trof meanwhile reloads over the western states, and looks to progress mostly into the interior eastern states through Monday, and in the process cuts off an upper low near the 4 Corners area. A light return flow develops over the forecast area on Saturday and continues through Sunday while another cold front approaches from the west. There is a fair amount of uncertainty on the frontal passage, which could occur at some point between Monday or later on Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected for the forecast area through Saturday night, then slight chance to chance pops return to the area Sunday into Sunday night, with chance pops following for Monday. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Moderate to strong northerly winds strengthen on Tuesday with gale conditions anticipated well offshore. The northerly flow gradually diminishes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Snow and sleet are anticipated from Tuesday through Tuesday night mainly over the near shore waters and bays and sounds. Freezing spray is possible Tuesday night mainly over bays and sounds. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for portions of the marine area from midnight tonight until 9 am Wednesday morning, and during this time a Gale Warning will be in effect for the 20-60 nm portion from 9 am Tuesday to midnight Tuesday night. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 25 31 15 37 19 45 24 50 / 0 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 28 33 20 36 24 44 29 49 / 0 90 70 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 30 36 23 39 28 48 32 51 / 0 90 90 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 21 32 14 40 16 47 21 51 / 0 80 40 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 21 31 10 39 16 47 21 50 / 10 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 20 31 13 38 17 45 21 49 / 0 70 10 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 23 33 17 37 17 47 22 50 / 0 90 80 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for GMZ633-634.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for GMZ635-636.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ670-675.

Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for GMZ670-675.