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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 344 Am Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming northwest early. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.

GMZ600 344 Am Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow continues through the middle of the week in the wake of a cold front. Moderate to strong offshore flow may develop Wednesday before turning easterly and relaxing by the end of the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 041145 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 545 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 414 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 414 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A northwest flow aloft will continue in the wake of a cold front.
This will continue to bring in a cooler an drier airmass through the period along with building sfc high pressure. A weak reinforcing cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday, however no rain is expected due to the very dry airmass in place.
Highs today will be in the mid/upper 60s in most areas with a few 70s possible. Lows tonight will be in the mid/upper 30s inland to low to mid 40s along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler behind the front, generally in the low 60s. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 414 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Cool and dry is the story for the short term period. Upper troughing digs into the southeastern U.S. Tuesday night through Wednesday with zonal flow remaining over the forecast area. This will bring in a reinforcing cold front Tuesday night across the area with high pressure building in by the day Wednesday. Little to no moisture in the low to mid levels means rain chances are non- existent, but high-level moisture should make Tuesday night into Wednesday cloudy before even that dries out heading into Wednesday night. Expect overnight lows Tuesday night to fall to the middle to upper 30's inland and lower 40's nearer the coast. Wednesday will struggle to appreciably warm, with highs generally in the middle to upper 50's. With high pressure settling in and clear skies aloft, expect Wednesday night to be the coldest night of the forecast package. Have gone more aggressive on overnight lows leaning on MOS guidance with a majority of the forecast area making it to near or just below 32. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 414 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Upper ridging generally prevails Thursday into Friday across the southeastern U.S. with perhaps a subtle southern-stream shortwave transiting the area early Friday. A more potent upper trough begins digging into the central CONUS Friday and swings across the eastern CONUS heading into Saturday and Sunday, amplifying and taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it does so. There is still some timing differences between the global models, but it seems reasonable that scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, with the caveat that PoPs may need to be trended higher on the front or backend of this once confidence on timing improves. Synoptically speaking, this setup would be favorable for deep-south severe storms, although it is still early to speculate on timing and/or magnitude of any severe threat. Regardless, it appears an adequate overlap of SBCAPE and deep layer shear will exist across the forecast area and will be something to monitor as we move forward in time. The cold front associated with this system should move through the area by Sunday, with much drier and cooler conditions returning in its wake.

Expect temperatures to warm amply into the upper 60's and lower 70's by Friday into Saturday, cooling in the wake of the cold front to upper 50's and lower 60's for highs. Overnight lows steadily warm going from upper 30's and lower 40's Thursday night to upper 40's and lower 50's Friday and Saturday nights. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A light to moderate offshore flow continues through the middle of the week in the wake of a cold front. Moderate to strong offshore flow may develop Wednesday before turning easterly and relaxing by the end of the week. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 69 42 64 42 58 34 59 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 69 45 63 45 57 40 58 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 70 49 63 47 60 43 60 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 67 39 61 38 57 31 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 65 37 63 38 57 31 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 65 36 61 37 54 30 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 71 39 63 38 58 31 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Lora Point
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Mon -- 03:11 AM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:05 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:42 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:31 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
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Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Bay Point
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Mon -- 03:58 AM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:05 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:06 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:30 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
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Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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