Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monticello, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

There may be some locations inland this morning with patchy fog developing around daybreak. The fog should dissipate within an hour or two after sunrise.

The upper level cutoff low will weaken through the day today as it continues to lift north towards the Tennessee Valley. However, the remaining trough will still be drawing in moisture from the Gulf with light south/southwesterly flow. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but with the dry air in the midlevels, any storm that develops is expected to be short lived. PoPs for today range around 30-50%. The highest chances will be along and south of I-10 where the sea breeze front will develop. Temperatures will be in the low 90s with a heat index around 100 degrees this afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The Bermuda High will extend just enough westward at the start of this term to shift our winds more southeasterly and easterly. The east/southeasterly flow will pull in moisture that is over the peninsula; increasing our PWATs to 1.8-2.2". That will increase our rain/thunderstorm chances for Thursday into Friday.

The northern axis of the High will settle south of our region over the weekend, drawing in light southerly flow. We can still expect daily showers/thunderstorms as there will be enough moisture content with the afternoon sea breeze. PoPs for this weekend range around 40- 60%.

For the start of the work week, the ridge will shift our winds southwesterly. Showers and storms will develop along the afternoon sea breeze, just a question as to where the sea breeze will develop. Overall, a typical summertime pattern with afternoon showers/thunderstorms with PoPs ranging 30-50%. Temperatures throughout the long term will range from the low to mid-90s with overnight lows in the low to mid-70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening. Outside of convection, generally VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Light winds will become more southerly through the day today, then shifting easterly on Thursday. Easterly flow is expected to prevail into the weekend with gentle breezes as the Bermuda High expands westward over our waters. A return to south/southeasterly flow will happen on Sunday into the start of the work week as the Bermuda High northern axis tilts a little further south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Southerly transport winds of 5-10 mph will continue for the next few days. Winds will become more easterly/southeasterly by Friday through the weekend. Afternoon dispersions for the next few days will be fair. Temperatures will be warm in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day, especially along the afternoon sea breeze.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The WPC does have the eastern 1/3rd of our area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall for Thursday, and again on Saturday for areas along the I-75 corridor in Georgia. Heavier thunderstorms may result in nuisance run-off flooding, however flash and riverine flooding are not expected over the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 73 91 73 93 / 10 40 30 20 Panama City 75 91 74 92 / 0 40 10 50 Dothan 72 93 73 92 / 20 50 30 20 Albany 73 93 73 93 / 30 60 40 10 Valdosta 72 94 72 95 / 20 60 30 20 Cross City 72 92 73 93 / 20 60 30 50 Apalachicola 76 87 76 88 / 20 30 50 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.