Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monticello, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 715 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Overall, the forecast is on track. A weakening line of showers approaches the area late tonight into early Sunday morning as it shrivels up over southeastern Alabama. Otherwise, temperatures settle in the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the area Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Fire weather will be the main concern through Sunday.

The regional surface analysis shows a well- defined cold front now crossing the Mid-South region. It will pass across our service area over the course of Sunday morning. A few sprinkles or narrow stripes of light rain are possible as it enters southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, but any rain will shrivel up as the front moves into the FL Big Bend and south-central GA. Where it does rain, amounts should stay below 0.10 inches, which is inconsequential in the face of long-term drought.

Behind the front, gusty northerly winds will kick in. Sustained northerlies around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph are expected Sunday afternoon. Drier air will push into Southwest Georgia during the afternoon and then push south of the FL state line as we move from afternoon into evening. Have added a Fire Weather Watch for parts of SW GA on Sunday afternoon, where confidence is highest in seeing an overlap of critically low RH and the wind.
Was not inclined to issue a watch beyond the higher confidence areas, due to thick high clouds lingering through the afternoon and the late arrival of dry air further south. An RFW upgrade and expansion is certainly possible on the midnight shift.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Critical or near-critical fire weather will still be the main concern through Monday. No rain is expected from Sunday night through at least Friday night.

Following the cold frontal passage on Sunday AM, an increasingly dry air mass will spread across the region. Winds will not fully decouple on Sunday night, and poor nighttime humidity recovery of less than 70 percent is expected Sunday night. Below 70 percent, one would not expect dew to develop.

The heart of the dry air mass will be squarely over the region on Monday. Min RH is expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range areawide, given high temperatures in the upper 70s-lower 80s, along with dewpoints in the 30s. A few pockets with dewpoints in the 20s will probably be observed, getting us the lower-end RH around 15 percent. In addition, sustained northeast winds will run in the 10-15 mph range, with gusts around 20-25 mph. With the continuation of Exceptional Drought and high-end dispersion values (the latter enhances the flow of fresh oxygen-laden air into any fires), Monday will be the most critical fire weather day over the largest area in this stretch.

Winds will decrease on Tuesday back to more typically gentle levels. However, the air mass will remain almost as dry as Monday.
No fire weather highlights are expected Tuesday due to lack of wind, but the fire environment will still be elevated.

100-700 mb layer flow will turn more southeasterly on Wednesday, as surface high pressure move east from the Carolinas toward Bermuda. Seabreezes will start to moisten the air mass for our Florida counties, but moistening will hold off for our Alabama counties until Thursday, and for most of our Georgia counties until Friday.

A cold front will try to push south into our region next Saturday, aided by WNW flow aloft. GEFS plume diagrams suggest Precipitable Water (PW) values most likely in the 1.1 to 1.5 inch range as the front moves in. The upper end of that range is what is typically sufficient for deep, moist convection. With adequate moisture, then weak to moderate convective instability and deep- layer shear of 25-35 knots would contribute to a few thunderstorms, loosely organizing into a cluster or two. For now, the forecast has low to medium rain chances next Saturday... in the 20-50 percent range.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

High clouds stream over the area ahead of a cold front. A weakening line of showers approaches the area late tonight into early Sunday morning. The best opportunity for rain will be in and around KDHN, where VCSH was maintained in the TAFs. Winds quickly turn northwesterly to northerly following the front with frequent gusts between 20 to 25 knots anticipated through the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A cold front will sweep across the waters on Sunday morning, followed by a shift to strong northerly breezes. Winds will turn northeasterly on Sunday evening, as high pressure passes by to the north, though a nighttime wind surge will keep breezes strong well into Monday. Winds will become easterly on Monday evening, and a fresh to possibly strong evening surge is expected. Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will prevail from Tuesday through Thursday, as high pressure sets up well east of the Georgia coast.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Near-critical condition will continue for the rest of this afternoon over south-central Georgia and the inland Florida Big Bend, as much above normal temperatures, moderate breezes, and low humidity act aggravate a fire environment with drought- stressed fuels.

A dry cold front on Sunday morning will be followed by northerly winds on Sunday afternoon around 15 mph, with gusts near 25 mph.
A drier air mass will also be spreading south, making enough inroads into southwest Georgia for a critical overlap of gusty wind and low humidity during peak afternoon heating. A Fire Weather Watch now includes parts of southwest Georgia on Sunday afternoon. Lingering cloud cover and shading of fuels will be the main inhibitor to active fire behavior on Sunday. Poor nighttime humidity recovery is expected on Sunday night.

On Monday, the heart of a very dry air mass will be in place across the region, with minimum relative humidities commonly in the 15-20 percent range. Sustained northeast winds will be near 10 to 15 mph, gusts around 20-25 mph. Dispersion will be extremely high. Full sunshine, seasonably warm late April temperatures, and ongoing drought will all contribute to a critical fire environment. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Monday where winds are currently forecast to reach 15 mph, and the watch could be expanded in later forecast updates.

Beyond Monday, the dry air mass will stick around through midweek. Temperatures will be on a warming trend, and dispersions will be high, but winds will diminish. The fire environment will remain elevated. Humidity will start to recover our Florida districts on Wednesday, with slow recovery north of the Florida state line on Thursday and Friday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Neither drought relief nor flooding are expected for the next 7 days. Any rain with the cold front on Sunday will be a hydrologically insignificant one-tenth of an inch or less. There is now a low to medium chance of rain next Saturday.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 63 77 52 80 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 62 75 54 80 / 10 10 0 0 Dothan 56 71 48 78 / 10 30 0 0 Albany 58 73 48 78 / 10 20 0 0 Valdosta 61 78 51 80 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 61 86 54 82 / 0 10 0 0 Apalachicola 66 76 57 77 / 0 20 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ016>019-027.

GA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for GAZ143>147-155>160.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ127>131- 145>148-157>161.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for GAZ120-122>129-144>146.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 5 PM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772.