Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairhope, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 212346 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 646 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Now through Tuesday night...
A general southwesterly flow pattern will persist through Tuesday night as an upper-level ridge remains in place over the western Atlantic. Several weak shortwaves are expected to move within this flow pattern aloft through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will stall across central Mississippi/Alabama.
This front, along with shortwave energy aloft, will provide enough forcing to allow for showers and storms to continue to develop this afternoon across portions of the Deep South. Although the best coverage looks to remain just to the west of our local CWA this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers/storms may attempt to slide into portions of southeast Mississippi and interior portions of southwest Alabama. Not anticipating any organized severe weather with these storms due to a lack of shear, although one or two isolated instances of gusty winds/small hail cannot be ruled out in some of the stronger cores that could develop.
Expecting convective coverage to decrease as we get into the evening and overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating.
For Tuesday, another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the late morning/early afternoon, mainly for areas west of I-65. The focus for storm initiation appears to be along remnant outflow boundaries from today's storms interacting with the northward-propagating seabreeze boundary as another shortwave passes overhead. With shear remaining weak, storms will generally be pulse-type in nature, and similar to today, a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds/small hail cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern due to the slow motion of these storms, so I can't rule out one or two isolated instances of flooding. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the low to mid 80s, and lows tonight and Tuesday night will only drop into the 60s. Patchy to areas of fog, some of which could be dense, may once again develop during the early morning hours prior to sunrise. Best probabilities for dense fog look to be over the western Florida Panhandle and over south central Alabama. We will monitor trends closely over the coming hours to see if a Dense Fog Advisory will become necessary for tonight. A High Risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before lowering to a moderate risk by Tuesday night. /96

Wednesday through Monday...
An upper ridge off the East Coast continues to move off, with zonal upper flow setting up over the Southeast for the end of the week.
The surface boundary that stalled north of the forecast area earlier in the week slowly washes out, with onshore flow over the Southeast weak the latter half of the week. Another upper level shortwave trough passes Tuesday night through Wednesday. With the highest moisture levels (precipitable h20 levels of 1.4"-1.6") remaining over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and nearby, best chance of rain remains west of I-65 Wednesday. Friday into the weekend, an upper ridge begins to build north over the Southern Plains, then shift east. Deep layer moisture decreases, even as southerly flow increases with a surface ridge building west over the Southeast.
Several rounds of shortwave energy pass through the weekend into the coming week, but rain chances remain generally north of the forecast area due to the lack of moisture and decreased upper subsidence. The decreasing moisture levels and increasing upper subsidence will bring a slow increase in high temperatures the rest of the week through the weekend. Low to mid 80s on Wednesday rise into the mid 80s to around 90 for the weekend(low 80s near and along the coast).
The decreasing moisture levels will help to counteract increasing upper subsidence to keep low temperatures in the low to mid 60s over most of the forecast area, upper 60s to near 70 closer to the coast, through the period.

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Wednesday decrease to low by the end of the week as onshore flow and tidal range decreases. Increasing onshore flow and tidal range increase will bring an increasing Rip Current Sunday into the coming week.
/16
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