Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairhope, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 112331 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 631 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Through Monday

Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms continue into the evening hours with the potential for small hail and gusty winds in any of the stronger storms. As we head into tonight, our surface low begins to gradually drift towards the northwest and most of the precipitation over the area lifts out to the north. Some of the morning and afternoon guidance hints at another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms moving onshore late in the overnight towards daybreak Monday. Limited instability owing to the unfavorable diurnal timing should preclude any stronger storms from developing.

As we head into Monday, our overall environment stays relatively similar, with perhaps more of the focus for coverage of showers and storms shifting into interior counties of southeastern Mississippi into interior southwestern Alabama. More isolated coverage can be expected closer to the coast. Overall shear values remain similar, but instability appears to be a bit more muted overall with weaker lapse rates and the low pulling away. Can't rule out a stronger wind gust or two in any of the strongest storms but not anticipating much more than that for Monday. Temperatures start the morning in the lower to middle 60's, only warming into the upper 70's to near 80, warmest east of the I-65 corridor. A High risk of rip currents continues through Monday night. MM/25

Tuesday Through Saturday...

The meandering upper low will gradually begin to lift out of the region Monday night into Tuesday, which will signal the end to this seemingly long stretch of days with unsettled weather. Winds aloft turn northwesterly by mid-afternoon on Tuesday and drier air will filter into the region from west to east. Best chances for lingering showers and storms on Tuesday will be across our northeastern counties, generally across south-central Alabama during peak heating in the afternoon hours. The rest of the work week will generally feature warmer temperatures as we begin to dry out. Ridging aloft begins to build to our west on Wednesday with some subtle shortwaves moving overhead as they dive down the eastern periphery of the ridge. While there won't be a ton of moisture left in the northwesterly flow aloft, we can't entirely rule out isolated showers on Wednesday, especially in the afternoon hours. Ridging moves into the region on Thursday and Friday, which effectively shuts off our rain chances and allows the heat to start cranking.
Hottest day looks to be Friday with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s inland with mid to upper 80s at the beaches.

Beach Forecast - The risk for rip currents remains MODERATE Tuesday through Thursday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.
Note that the rip current MOS probabilities are starting to trend slightly higher in the Wednesday night into Thursday morning timeframe at a few of the beaches. The MOS probabilities continue to indicate a MODERATE risk through much of the afternoon on Friday before dropping to a LOW risk by Saturday morning. 07/mb
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